本文關(guān)鍵詞：松江電網(wǎng)主設(shè)備負(fù)荷預(yù)測系統(tǒng)研究與開發(fā)　出處：《上海交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 主設(shè)備負(fù)荷預(yù)測 空間負(fù)荷預(yù)測 季節(jié)性時間序列方法 軟件開發(fā)

【摘要】：目前,包括松江供電公司在內(nèi)的我國各地級供電公司多只有區(qū)域負(fù)荷預(yù)測軟件;但對地調(diào)部門安排電網(wǎng)運行方式而言,掌握主設(shè)備(包括主變和線路)負(fù)荷預(yù)測值更為重要,它是地調(diào)部門做好負(fù)荷割接計劃、優(yōu)化配網(wǎng)夏季運行方式的基礎(chǔ)。與地區(qū)負(fù)荷總量預(yù)測相比,主設(shè)備的負(fù)荷預(yù)測在負(fù)荷影響因素、數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理方法、負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法、預(yù)測誤差分析和返校上都具有特殊性,這也為主設(shè)備負(fù)荷預(yù)測軟件開發(fā)提出特殊要求。針對上述問題,本文以配網(wǎng)中的主變和10千伏典型饋線為主設(shè)備研究對象,分析了松江配網(wǎng)各功能片區(qū)近年主設(shè)備負(fù)荷增長的趨勢特點以及錯避峰、負(fù)荷性質(zhì)、氣象因素對主設(shè)備負(fù)荷的影響規(guī)律;進(jìn)而根據(jù)主設(shè)備負(fù)荷增長特點,選取月份系數(shù)、趨勢比率、環(huán)比、增幅、倍比五種為主設(shè)備負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法,對各種預(yù)測方法的適用性進(jìn)行了分析;并根據(jù)主設(shè)備負(fù)荷的主要影響因素提出了誤差返校方法。圍繞主設(shè)備負(fù)荷預(yù)測中的功能需求,進(jìn)一步設(shè)計并開發(fā)了主設(shè)備負(fù)荷預(yù)測軟件,該軟件包括數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理模塊、趨勢分析模塊、負(fù)荷預(yù)測模塊、氣溫影響模塊和誤差返校模塊。軟件畫面直觀、易于操作,可獨立實現(xiàn)對負(fù)荷數(shù)據(jù)庫的添加、修改、存儲、刪除、查詢等工作;預(yù)測結(jié)果可存入結(jié)果數(shù)據(jù)庫,支持查詢、打印功能;還可對預(yù)測結(jié)果進(jìn)行誤差分析,并可根據(jù)氣溫變化的影響情況調(diào)整負(fù)荷預(yù)測結(jié)果。論文最后運用所開發(fā)的軟件,對松江配網(wǎng)各220KV、110KV、35KV主變和10千伏典型饋線實施了負(fù)荷預(yù)測。結(jié)果表明,該軟件的使用能獲得良好的預(yù)測精度,有效找到負(fù)荷熱點,為電網(wǎng)優(yōu)化運行提供重要依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:At present, including the Songjiang power supply company, our country level power supply companies only regional load forecasting software; but for dispatching departments to arrange power grid operation mode, grasp the main equipment (including the main transformer and line) load forecasting is more important, it is to adjust the load departments cutover plan, optimizing distribution network based summer operation the area. Compared with the total load forecast, the main equipment in the load forecasting load factors, data preprocessing methods, load forecasting methods, forecasting error analysis and to have particularities, the main equipment load forecasting software development put forward special requirements. Aiming at the above problems, based on the power distribution of main transformer 10 thousand volts and typical feeder main equipment research object, analyzed the function of the distribution network in Songjiang area in recent years, the main equipment load growth trend and avoiding peak load and meteorological factors on the main properties. Influence of load; and then according to the main equipment load growth characteristics, select the month trend coefficient, ratio, chain, increase five times more than the main equipment load forecasting method, the applicability of various forecasting methods are analyzed; and according to the main influencing factors of main equipment load error return method is proposed. Based on functional demand the main equipment load forecasting, further design and development of the main equipment load forecasting software, the software includes data preprocessing module, trend analysis module, load forecast module, temperature module and error back module. Software screen is intuitive, easy to operate, can independently achieve add, load on the database storage, modify, delete. Query; prediction results can be stored in the database, support query, print function; also we analyze the error of prediction results, and according to the impact of temperature changes Adjust the load forecasting results. Finally we use the software of 110KV, 220KV, 35KV of the Songjiang distribution network, the main transformer and 10 thousand volt typical feeder implementation of load forecasting. The results show that the use of the software can obtain good prediction accuracy, effectively find the hot load, provide an important basis for optimal operation of power grid.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM715;TP311.52

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本文編號：1387472