本文關(guān)鍵詞：松江電網(wǎng)主設(shè)備負荷預測系統(tǒng)研究與開發(fā)　出處：《上海交通大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 主設(shè)備負荷預測 空間負荷預測 季節(jié)性時間序列方法 軟件開發(fā)

【摘要】：目前,包括松江供電公司在內(nèi)的我國各地級供電公司多只有區(qū)域負荷預測軟件;但對地調(diào)部門安排電網(wǎng)運行方式而言,掌握主設(shè)備(包括主變和線路)負荷預測值更為重要,它是地調(diào)部門做好負荷割接計劃、優(yōu)化配網(wǎng)夏季運行方式的基礎(chǔ)。與地區(qū)負荷總量預測相比,主設(shè)備的負荷預測在負荷影響因素、數(shù)據(jù)預處理方法、負荷預測方法、預測誤差分析和返校上都具有特殊性,這也為主設(shè)備負荷預測軟件開發(fā)提出特殊要求。針對上述問題,本文以配網(wǎng)中的主變和10千伏典型饋線為主設(shè)備研究對象,分析了松江配網(wǎng)各功能片區(qū)近年主設(shè)備負荷增長的趨勢特點以及錯避峰、負荷性質(zhì)、氣象因素對主設(shè)備負荷的影響規(guī)律;進而根據(jù)主設(shè)備負荷增長特點,選取月份系數(shù)、趨勢比率、環(huán)比、增幅、倍比五種為主設(shè)備負荷預測方法,對各種預測方法的適用性進行了分析;并根據(jù)主設(shè)備負荷的主要影響因素提出了誤差返校方法。圍繞主設(shè)備負荷預測中的功能需求,進一步設(shè)計并開發(fā)了主設(shè)備負荷預測軟件,該軟件包括數(shù)據(jù)預處理模塊、趨勢分析模塊、負荷預測模塊、氣溫影響模塊和誤差返校模塊。軟件畫面直觀、易于操作,可獨立實現(xiàn)對負荷數(shù)據(jù)庫的添加、修改、存儲、刪除、查詢等工作;預測結(jié)果可存入結(jié)果數(shù)據(jù)庫,支持查詢、打印功能;還可對預測結(jié)果進行誤差分析,并可根據(jù)氣溫變化的影響情況調(diào)整負荷預測結(jié)果。論文最后運用所開發(fā)的軟件,對松江配網(wǎng)各220KV、110KV、35KV主變和10千伏典型饋線實施了負荷預測。結(jié)果表明,該軟件的使用能獲得良好的預測精度,有效找到負荷熱點,為電網(wǎng)優(yōu)化運行提供重要依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:At present, including the Songjiang power supply company, our country level power supply companies only regional load forecasting software; but for dispatching departments to arrange power grid operation mode, grasp the main equipment (including the main transformer and line) load forecasting is more important, it is to adjust the load departments cutover plan, optimizing distribution network based summer operation the area. Compared with the total load forecast, the main equipment in the load forecasting load factors, data preprocessing methods, load forecasting methods, forecasting error analysis and to have particularities, the main equipment load forecasting software development put forward special requirements. Aiming at the above problems, based on the power distribution of main transformer 10 thousand volts and typical feeder main equipment research object, analyzed the function of the distribution network in Songjiang area in recent years, the main equipment load growth trend and avoiding peak load and meteorological factors on the main properties. Influence of load; and then according to the main equipment load growth characteristics, select the month trend coefficient, ratio, chain, increase five times more than the main equipment load forecasting method, the applicability of various forecasting methods are analyzed; and according to the main influencing factors of main equipment load error return method is proposed. Based on functional demand the main equipment load forecasting, further design and development of the main equipment load forecasting software, the software includes data preprocessing module, trend analysis module, load forecast module, temperature module and error back module. Software screen is intuitive, easy to operate, can independently achieve add, load on the database storage, modify, delete. Query; prediction results can be stored in the database, support query, print function; also we analyze the error of prediction results, and according to the impact of temperature changes Adjust the load forecasting results. Finally we use the software of 110KV, 220KV, 35KV of the Songjiang distribution network, the main transformer and 10 thousand volt typical feeder implementation of load forecasting. The results show that the use of the software can obtain good prediction accuracy, effectively find the hot load, provide an important basis for optimal operation of power grid.

【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM715;TP311.52

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本文編號：1387472