【摘要】：我國2015年開啟新一輪電力市場化改革,目前正處于電力市場建設(shè)方案規(guī)劃和設(shè)計階段,亟需建立電力市場評價體系,用于對電力市場設(shè)計方案的評估以及方案實施后的評價。由于電力體制、經(jīng)濟社會和電力工業(yè)發(fā)展狀況不同,各個國家和地區(qū)的電力市場也有所差異,所采用的市場評價體系也不盡相同。本文首先綜述了國內(nèi)外電力市場評價體系以及相關(guān)的綜合評價方法,介紹了本文的研究思路及相應的研究內(nèi)容,確定了適合我國電力市場建設(shè)的方向性評價指標,以此為基礎(chǔ),建立了相應的適合我國的電力市場評價體系。本文按照定性指標和定量指標的結(jié)構(gòu),建立了電力市場評價指標體系,其中,定性指標包括市場無歧視性指標、市場監(jiān)管能力、市場建設(shè)方案的完備性、市場技術(shù)支持能力、是否針對本地區(qū)具體問題提出解決方案;定量指標包括市場集中度指標、市場運行指標、環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展指標、市場經(jīng)濟性指標。在建立評價指標體系的基礎(chǔ)上,本文采用了兩種評價方法對電力市場進行評價。對于初期電力市場設(shè)計方案,可采用基于“合理—可行—效率”三個層次的綜合評價方法,在滿足合理性原則、可行性原則的基礎(chǔ)上,選擇效率最優(yōu)的電力市場設(shè)計方案作為推薦實施方案;對于成熟電力市場的綜合評價,本文采用了基于模糊評價和層次分析法的綜合評價方法,模糊評價量化了定性評價指標和定量評價指標,層次分析法確定各指標的權(quán)重值,進而在公平、效率、風險規(guī)避、可操作性、問題導向性五個維度對電力市場進行評價。本文最后對比分析了廣東電力市場新舊交易結(jié)算規(guī)則,并且基于廣東電力市場實際集中競價交易結(jié)果,模擬出了供需雙方價差電量申報曲線,進而得到新舊規(guī)則下的交易結(jié)果,通過對比交易結(jié)果,分析了新舊交易規(guī)則的特點,并且通過交易結(jié)果可知,廣東電力市場供方市場力較弱。
[Abstract]:China started a new round of electricity market reform in 2015 and is in the stage of power market construction plan planning and design. It is urgent to establish the power market evaluation system for the evaluation of power market design scheme and the evaluation after the implementation of the scheme. Because of the different development of electric power system, economic society and electric power industry, different countries and regions have different power market, and the market evaluation system is also different. This paper first summarizes the domestic and foreign power market evaluation system and related comprehensive evaluation methods, introduces the research ideas and corresponding research contents of this paper, and determines the directional evaluation index suitable for the construction of the power market in China, which is based on this. The corresponding evaluation system of electric power market suitable for our country has been established. According to the structure of qualitative index and quantitative index, the evaluation index system of electric power market is established. The qualitative index includes market non-discrimination index, market supervision ability, the completeness of market construction scheme, and the ability of market technical support. Whether to propose solutions to specific problems in the region; Quantitative indexes include market concentration index, market operation index, environmental sustainable development index and market economy index. On the basis of establishing the evaluation index system, this paper adopts two evaluation methods to evaluate the electricity market. For the initial power market design scheme, the comprehensive evaluation method based on the three levels of rationality-feasibility-efficiency can be adopted, on the basis of satisfying the rationality principle and the feasibility principle, Select the most efficient power market design scheme as the recommended implementation scheme; For the comprehensive evaluation of mature power market, this paper adopts the comprehensive evaluation method based on fuzzy evaluation and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The fuzzy evaluation quantifies the qualitative evaluation index and the quantitative evaluation index, and the AHP determines the weight value of each index. Then the power market is evaluated in five dimensions: fairness, efficiency, risk aversion, maneuverability and problem-orientation. Finally, this paper compares and analyzes the new and old trading and settlement rules in Guangdong power market, and simulates the application curve of the difference between supply and demand based on the actual centralized bidding results of Guangdong power market, and then obtains the trading results under the new and old rules. By comparing the trading results, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the new and old trading rules, and through the trading results, we can see that the power of the supplier market in Guangdong electricity market is weak.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61

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