【摘要】：一個(gè)國家或地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和人民生活離不開電力的投入,充足可靠的電力消費(fèi)供給是保障經(jīng)濟(jì)社會正常發(fā)展的重大宏觀問題。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入新常態(tài),國民經(jīng)濟(jì)開始從高速增長期向中高速平穩(wěn)增長期過渡,經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型帶來高耗能產(chǎn)業(yè)耗電量比重的下降,影響電力行業(yè)的供需增速也進(jìn)一步放緩。而在國家推動(dòng)能源消費(fèi)革命、加大節(jié)能減排力度的新形勢下,電能替代將有利于提高電能在終端能源消費(fèi)中所占的比重。并且,京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展政策的施行和推進(jìn)將對河北省及其電力發(fā)展密切相關(guān)的能源政策、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、人口分布、環(huán)境生態(tài)等方面進(jìn)行優(yōu)化和調(diào)整,進(jìn)而影響經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展和用電量需求的變化。面對著經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)和電力供需矛盾顯現(xiàn)的新形勢,對河北省電力消費(fèi)歷史特征進(jìn)行分析,定量探究其影響機(jī)制,并根據(jù)未來協(xié)同情景發(fā)展進(jìn)行預(yù)測具有十分深遠(yuǎn)的意義。這將能夠有利于更加科學(xué)合理地制定河北省電力能源規(guī)劃和相關(guān)節(jié)能減排政策,在保障河北省電能安全及經(jīng)濟(jì)社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)上,助力京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展政策的順利實(shí)施,保障京津電力消費(fèi)需求安全,實(shí)現(xiàn)中長期的協(xié)同規(guī)劃目標(biāo)。首先,本文在梳理國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,對電力消費(fèi)及預(yù)測方法進(jìn)行了分析闡述;進(jìn)而,立足于京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展政策,闡述了河北省功能定位,并對河北省電力消費(fèi)及其影響因素進(jìn)行了數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,深入剖析了各變量逐年變化情況及變化原因;在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用LMDI分解模型從生產(chǎn)用電和生活用電兩個(gè)角度,將河北省電力消費(fèi)量分解為人口效應(yīng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模效應(yīng)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)、生產(chǎn)電力消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度、城鎮(zhèn)化水平效應(yīng)、居民消費(fèi)效應(yīng)和居民電力消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度七個(gè)方面,并定量測算各因素對電力消費(fèi)的貢獻(xiàn)程度,得到正向驅(qū)動(dòng)的因素主要有人口效應(yīng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模效應(yīng)、城鎮(zhèn)化水平效應(yīng)、居民消費(fèi)效應(yīng),累計(jì)貢獻(xiàn)率分別為15.07%、177.80%、4.8%、7.52%,負(fù)向驅(qū)動(dòng)因素主要包括產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)、生產(chǎn)電力消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度、居民電力消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度,貢獻(xiàn)率為-80.32%、-24.26%、-4.81%。并依照結(jié)果分析各個(gè)因素對電力消費(fèi)的影響機(jī)制,就此基于改進(jìn)的人工蜂群算法構(gòu)建相應(yīng)的電力消費(fèi)預(yù)測模型。最后,立足于京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展,依據(jù)河北省發(fā)展的歷史情況、相關(guān)規(guī)劃政策定義了基準(zhǔn)協(xié)同、規(guī)劃協(xié)同和高度協(xié)同三種不同情景,并針對不同情景發(fā)展水平的不同設(shè)置了不同的人口、實(shí)際GDP、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重、電力消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度、城鎮(zhèn)化水平、居民消費(fèi)水平等參數(shù)。而后利用對2015-2020年河北省電力消費(fèi)量進(jìn)行預(yù)測,得到到2020年,在基準(zhǔn)協(xié)同情景下,河北省電力消費(fèi)總量可達(dá)3947億千瓦時(shí)。在規(guī)劃協(xié)同情景下,總量達(dá)到4154億千瓦時(shí)。在高度協(xié)同情景下,總量為4128億千瓦時(shí)。
[Abstract]:The economic growth and people's life in a country or region can not be separated from the input of electricity. Sufficient and reliable power consumption and supply is a major macro-problem to guarantee the normal development of economy and society. With the economic development entering into the new normal, the national economy began to transition from high-speed growth period to medium-high-speed steady growth period. The economic transformation brought about a decrease in the proportion of power consumption of high-energy-consuming industries, which affected the supply and demand growth of the power industry further slowed down. Under the new situation of promoting energy consumption revolution and increasing energy saving and emission reduction, the substitution of electric energy will help to increase the proportion of electric energy in the end energy consumption. In addition, the implementation and promotion of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy will optimize and adjust the energy policy, industrial structure, population distribution, environment and ecology of Hebei Province and its power development, which are closely related to the development of Hebei Province. And then influence the development of economy and society and the change of electricity demand. Facing the new situation of the new economic normal and the contradiction between power supply and demand, it is of great significance to analyze the historical characteristics of power consumption in Hebei Province, to explore quantitatively its influence mechanism, and to predict the future coordinated development of electricity supply and demand. This will be conducive to a more scientific and rational formulation of the power energy plan and related energy conservation and emission reduction policies in Hebei Province, and on the basis of ensuring the energy security and sustainable economic and social development of Hebei Province, will help the smooth implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy. To ensure the security of Beijing-Tianjin power consumption demand and achieve the long-and medium-term coordinated planning goals. First of all, on the basis of combing the current research situation at home and abroad, this paper analyzes and expounds the power consumption and forecasting methods. Then, based on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperation development policy, this paper expounds the function orientation of Hebei Province, and carries on the mathematical statistics analysis to the power consumption and its influence factors of Hebei Province, and deeply analyzes the changes of each variable year by year and the reason of the change. On this basis, the power consumption in Hebei Province is divided into population effect, economic scale effect, industrial structure effect, production power consumption intensity and urbanization level effect from the perspective of production electricity and domestic electricity consumption by using LMDI decomposition model. There are seven aspects of resident consumption effect and power consumption intensity, and quantitatively calculate the contribution degree of each factor to power consumption. The positive driving factors are population effect, economic scale effect, urbanization level effect, and the positive driving factors are population effect, economic scale effect and urbanization level effect. The cumulative contribution rate of resident consumption effect is 15.07%, 177.80%, 4.8%, 7.52% respectively. The negative driving factors mainly include industrial structure effect, production power consumption intensity, and resident power consumption intensity. The contribution rate was-80.32%, 24.26% and 4.81% respectively. According to the results, the influence mechanism of each factor on power consumption is analyzed, and the corresponding forecasting model of power consumption is constructed based on the improved artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, based on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei collaborative development, according to the historical situation of Hebei development, the relevant planning policies define three different scenarios: benchmark synergy, planning synergy and high synergy. Different population, actual GDP, secondary industry proportion, power consumption intensity, urbanization level, resident consumption level and other parameters are set up according to the different development level of different scenarios. Then the electric power consumption in Hebei Province from 2015 to 2020 is predicted. By 2020, the total electricity consumption in Hebei Province can reach 394.7 billion kwh under the base synergetic scenario. In the planning coordination scenario, the total amount of 415.4 billion kilowatt-hours. In a highly collaborative scenario, the total amount is 412.8 billion kWh.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61

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