【摘要】：電力負(fù)荷增長(zhǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的發(fā)展具有相同的趨勢(shì),在不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展階段呈現(xiàn)不同的特點(diǎn)。當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展到一定階段,受區(qū)域能源結(jié)構(gòu)、土地資源、人口規(guī)模及環(huán)境壓力等條件的限制,電力負(fù)荷的增長(zhǎng)速度將會(huì)放緩甚至停止增長(zhǎng),逐步進(jìn)入到電力負(fù)荷的飽和發(fā)展階段。電力飽和負(fù)荷可以確定城市電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃中電網(wǎng)發(fā)展的最終規(guī)模,為電源點(diǎn)、輸電網(wǎng)和配電網(wǎng)的遠(yuǎn)期規(guī)劃提供基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),進(jìn)而指導(dǎo)近期城市電網(wǎng)的建設(shè)和改造,避免不必要的改擴(kuò)建工程,為城市未來(lái)電力的發(fā)展預(yù)留空間,確保城市規(guī)劃與電網(wǎng)發(fā)展相協(xié)調(diào)。本文通過(guò)對(duì)典型發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)和國(guó)家的電力負(fù)荷發(fā)展規(guī)律的分析,總結(jié)出電力負(fù)荷的發(fā)展歷程和在電力飽和負(fù)荷階段的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)特征,進(jìn)而完善了判定電力負(fù)荷進(jìn)入飽和發(fā)展階段的量化指標(biāo)體系,同時(shí)介紹并總結(jié)了常用飽和負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)模型的方法和特點(diǎn)。通過(guò)分析與電力發(fā)展息息相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、人口、資源、政策、環(huán)境等影響因素,建立了電力負(fù)荷影響因素的意識(shí)模型,運(yùn)用解釋結(jié)構(gòu)模型分析了各影響因素之間的結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系,將影響電力負(fù)荷變化的因素劃分為表層原因、淺層原因和深層原因三個(gè)層次�？紤]保留傳統(tǒng)logistic模型特征,運(yùn)用灰色模型的精確極差格式建立極差格式的灰色logistic模型,避免了傳統(tǒng)預(yù)測(cè)模型中參數(shù)主觀化�？紤]對(duì)電力負(fù)荷變化產(chǎn)生直接影響的表層因素,運(yùn)用PSO優(yōu)化的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型將logistic預(yù)測(cè)模型中的速度增長(zhǎng)因子函數(shù)化,建立logistic拓展模型。然后采用方差-協(xié)方差和偏離度兩種方式建立logistic組合預(yù)測(cè)模型分析并預(yù)測(cè)城市飽和負(fù)荷,避免單一預(yù)測(cè)的缺點(diǎn),增強(qiáng)模型的實(shí)用性和靈活性,提高預(yù)測(cè)精度。最后分析了北京市經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口和電力發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,結(jié)合歷史數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)北京市未來(lái)用電量需求量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),結(jié)果表明:從2026-2027年開(kāi)始,北京市用電需求量年增長(zhǎng)率小于2%,用電需求總量達(dá)到1331.68-1350.91億千瓦時(shí),進(jìn)入飽和發(fā)展階段。
[Abstract]:The growth of electric power load has the same trend with the development of economy and society, and it has different characteristics in different stages of economic and social development. When economic and social development reaches a certain stage, under the constraints of regional energy structure, land resources, population size and environmental pressure, the growth rate of electric power load will slow down or even stop growing. Gradually enter the saturated development stage of power load. The power saturation load can determine the final scale of power grid development in urban power grid planning, provide the basic data for the long-term planning of power supply point, transmission grid and distribution network, and then guide the construction and transformation of urban power grid in the near future. Avoid unnecessary reconstruction and expansion projects, reserve space for the future development of urban electricity, and ensure coordination between urban planning and power grid development. Based on the analysis of the law of power load development in typical developed regions and countries, this paper summarizes the development process of power load and its socio-economic characteristics in the stage of saturation load. Furthermore, the quantitative index system for judging the power load entering the saturation stage is improved, and the methods and characteristics of the commonly used saturated load forecasting models are introduced and summarized at the same time. Based on the analysis of economic, social, population, resource, policy, environment and other factors which are closely related to the development of electric power, the consciousness model of influencing factors of electric power load is established. The structural relationship among the factors is analyzed by using the interpretive structural model. The factors influencing the change of power load are divided into three levels: surface layer, shallow layer and deep layer. Considering the characteristics of the traditional logistic model, the grey logistic model of the extreme difference scheme is established by using the exact range scheme of the grey model, which avoids the subjectivity of the parameters in the traditional prediction model. Considering the surface factors that have a direct effect on the change of power load, the speed growth factor in logistic forecasting model is functioned by the neural network model optimized by PSO, and the logistic expansion model is established. Then the logistic combination forecasting model is established by variance-covariance and deviation to avoid the shortcomings of single prediction and to enhance the practicability and flexibility of the model and to improve the prediction accuracy. Finally, the development of economy, population and electricity in Beijing is analyzed. Based on historical data, the future demand for electricity consumption in Beijing is predicted. The results show that from 2026 to 2027, the annual growth rate of electricity demand in Beijing will be less than 2%. Total electricity demand reached 1331.68- one hundred and thirty five billion ninety one million kilowatt-hours, entering the stage of saturation development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TM715

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