發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-03-11 08:35

【摘要】：相對(duì)于傳統(tǒng)大電網(wǎng),新能源高滲透率下微網(wǎng)中的不確定因素是限制微網(wǎng)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。為克服傳統(tǒng)優(yōu)化運(yùn)行中僅考慮單一不確定性導(dǎo)致的調(diào)度結(jié)果保守性問題,該文深入研究微網(wǎng)中的不確定因素,從不確定理論出發(fā),將風(fēng)電出力和光伏出力分別處理為模糊隨機(jī)變量和模糊變量,構(gòu)造雙重不確定環(huán)境下的機(jī)會(huì)約束模糊隨機(jī)規(guī)劃模型。為更為靈活直觀地描述該環(huán)境下的復(fù)雜雙重不確定性,利用機(jī)會(huì)測(cè)度衡量模糊隨機(jī)事件的機(jī)會(huì),并提出一種模糊隨機(jī)模擬技術(shù)與遺傳算法相結(jié)合的混合智能算法對(duì)機(jī)會(huì)約束模糊隨機(jī)規(guī)劃模型進(jìn)行求解。針對(duì)不同置信水平下的最優(yōu)解,進(jìn)一步將傳統(tǒng)優(yōu)化問題中單一的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析擴(kuò)展為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,分析結(jié)果表明,隨著置信水平的減小,微網(wǎng)運(yùn)行成本降低,而對(duì)新能源發(fā)電的管控也隨之降低,導(dǎo)致風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增大。以一個(gè)包含風(fēng)、光、儲(chǔ)以及燃料電池和微型燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)的微網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)為實(shí)例進(jìn)行計(jì)算分析,驗(yàn)證該模型及求解算法的可行性及有效性。
[Abstract]:Compared with the traditional large power grid, the uncertainty factor in the micro-grid under the new energy and high permeability is the key to limit the development of the micro-grid. In order to overcome the conservative problem of scheduling results caused by single uncertainty in the traditional optimal operation, the uncertainty factors in micro-grid are studied in this paper, and the uncertainty theory is set out. The wind power and photovoltaic output are treated as fuzzy random variables and fuzzy variables respectively, and the chance constrained fuzzy stochastic programming model is constructed under double uncertain environment. In order to describe the complex double uncertainty in this environment more flexibly and intuitively, the opportunity of fuzzy random events is measured by chance measure. A hybrid intelligent algorithm based on the combination of fuzzy stochastic simulation and genetic algorithm is proposed to solve the chance constrained fuzzy stochastic programming model. In view of the optimal solution at different confidence levels, the single economic analysis in traditional optimization problem is further extended to risk analysis. The results show that with the decrease of confidence level, the running cost of micro-grid decreases, and the cost of micro-grid operation decreases with the decrease of confidence level. And the control of new energy generation will also be reduced, resulting in increased risk. Taking a micro-grid system including wind, light, storage, fuel cell and micro gas turbine as examples, the feasibility and effectiveness of the model and the algorithm are verified.
【作者單位】： 新能源電力系統(tǒng)國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(華北電力大學(xué));
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51577068) 國家863高技術(shù)基金項(xiàng)目(2015AA050104)~~
【分類號(hào)】：TM73

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