【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)及工業(yè)的迅速發(fā)展,電力系統(tǒng)在各方面支持下呈現(xiàn)出高效率、新科技、大容量、高電壓、遠(yuǎn)距離、智能化等特點(diǎn),電力系統(tǒng)用電量規(guī)模在高速提升,但同時(shí)電力系統(tǒng)自動(dòng)化控制程度的復(fù)雜性也給其安全、可靠的電力供應(yīng)過程帶來了許多不穩(wěn)定因素及風(fēng)險(xiǎn),繼電保護(hù)是整個(gè)供電體系中最為重要的一環(huán),能否正常、穩(wěn)定的工作,是保證用電可靠性的主要依據(jù)。本文針對(duì)傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和可靠性分析的不足,提出了基于10狀態(tài)Markov模型的繼電保護(hù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系對(duì)可靠性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估。采用理論分析、系統(tǒng)仿真、反饋校驗(yàn)的方法來實(shí)現(xiàn),對(duì)繼電保護(hù)的設(shè)計(jì)、安裝、調(diào)試、運(yùn)行、管理等各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)進(jìn)行深入研究,獲得第一手的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),包括原始數(shù)據(jù)、運(yùn)行工況、檢修數(shù)據(jù)、管理數(shù)據(jù)等,并利用基于時(shí)間序列的LS-SVM的大數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算方法,構(gòu)建基于三參數(shù)Weibull分布的繼電保護(hù)裝置時(shí)變失效率的模型計(jì)算各裝置的失效率函數(shù),最后利用研究結(jié)果對(duì)淮南市現(xiàn)有的繼電保護(hù)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估,并進(jìn)行結(jié)果檢驗(yàn)與修正。本文在分析繼電保護(hù)失效率的同時(shí),給出了失效率函數(shù)的計(jì)算方法,針對(duì)繼電保護(hù)失效率計(jì)算、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估、繼電保護(hù)可靠性三個(gè)方面,討論了對(duì)系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估與提高可靠性的方法。根據(jù)實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果對(duì)存在的潛在隱患及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)并在最大程度上降低損失,使電網(wǎng)的管理水平得以提高,實(shí)現(xiàn)電網(wǎng)安全穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy and industry in our country, the power system has the characteristics of high efficiency, new science and technology, large capacity, high voltage, long distance, intelligence and so on. The power consumption scale of the power system is increasing at a high speed. But at the same time, the complexity of power system automation control also brings many unstable factors and risks to its safe and reliable power supply process. Relay protection is the most important link in the whole power supply system, whether it can be normal or not. Stable work is the main basis for ensuring the reliability of electricity. Aiming at the shortcomings of traditional risk assessment and reliability analysis, this paper proposes a 10-state Markov model-based relay protection risk assessment system to evaluate the reliability and risk. The methods of theoretical analysis, system simulation and feedback verification are adopted to carry out in-depth research on the design, installation, debugging, operation and management of relay protection, so as to obtain the first-hand basic data, including the original data, in-depth research on the design, installation, debugging, operation and management of relay protection. Operation condition, maintenance data, management data, etc., and by using big data calculation method based on time series LS-SVM, a model of time varying failure rate of relay protection device based on three parameter Weibull distribution is constructed to calculate the failure rate function of each device. Finally, the risk assessment of the existing relay protection system in Huainan City is carried out, and the results are tested and corrected. In this paper, while analyzing the failure rate of relay protection, the calculation method of failure rate function is given. The calculation of failure rate of relay protection, the assessment of risk and the reliability of relay protection are discussed. The methods to evaluate the system risk and improve the reliability are discussed. According to the experimental results, the potential hidden dangers are discovered in time and the loss is reduced to the maximum extent, so that the management level of the power grid can be improved and the safe and stable operation of the power network can be realized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TM77

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