【摘要】：近幾年光伏發(fā)電得到了迅速的發(fā)展,其在電網(wǎng)中的滲透率逐漸提高。大力發(fā)展光伏發(fā)電對(duì)于國(guó)家的能源供應(yīng)和能源安全具有重要的意義,是未來電力系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)之一。但光伏發(fā)電受光照強(qiáng)度等氣象條件影響非常大,這使得光伏輸出功率具有很強(qiáng)的波動(dòng)性。傳統(tǒng)的確定性潮流很難評(píng)估系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的波動(dòng)性,而概率潮流能夠考慮光伏輸出功率的波動(dòng)性,并且還能考慮負(fù)荷的隨機(jī)波動(dòng)和常規(guī)發(fā)電機(jī)故障停運(yùn)等情況。通過概率潮流計(jì)算得到各節(jié)點(diǎn)電壓以及支路潮流的概率分布,為電力系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行規(guī)劃、繼電保護(hù)整定等提供重要的參考信息。傳統(tǒng)的概率潮流采用半不變量法進(jìn)行計(jì)算分析,并且要求節(jié)點(diǎn)輸入量之間相互獨(dú)立,而在實(shí)際情況下往往不能滿足這個(gè)條件。地理位置較近的光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng),輸出功率之間具有相關(guān)性,會(huì)對(duì)概率潮流計(jì)算的準(zhǔn)確性產(chǎn)生影響。本文采用改進(jìn)的Nataf變換處理光伏出力之間的相關(guān)性,并結(jié)合半不變量和C型Gram-Charlier級(jí)數(shù)進(jìn)行概率潮流計(jì)算。該方法不僅較蒙特卡洛法有更高的計(jì)算效率,而且能夠體現(xiàn)變量空間之間的變換過程,對(duì)于不服從正態(tài)分布的光伏出力之間的相關(guān)性具有較好的處理效果,同時(shí)C型Gram-Charlier級(jí)數(shù)可以防止概率密度值出現(xiàn)負(fù)值的情況。通過IEEE14節(jié)點(diǎn)算例和南方某地區(qū)實(shí)際電網(wǎng)算例驗(yàn)證了所提方法的有效性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, photovoltaic power generation has been rapid development, its permeability in the grid gradually increased. The development of photovoltaic power generation is of great significance to national energy supply and energy security, and is one of the development trends of power system in the future. However, photovoltaic power generation is greatly affected by meteorological conditions such as light intensity, which makes photovoltaic output power have strong volatility. The traditional deterministic power flow is difficult to evaluate the operating volatility of the system, while the probabilistic power flow can take into account the fluctuation of photovoltaic output power, as well as the random fluctuation of load and the failure outage of conventional generators. The probabilistic distribution of each node voltage and branch power flow is obtained by probabilistic power flow calculation, which provides important reference information for power system operation planning, relay protection setting and so on. The traditional probabilistic power flow is calculated and analyzed by semi-invariant method, and the nodal input is required to be independent of each other, but this condition is often not satisfied in practice. There is a correlation between the output power of photovoltaic power generation system, which will affect the accuracy of probabilistic power flow calculation. In this paper, the improved Nataf transform is used to deal with the correlation between photovoltaic forces, and the probabilistic power flow is calculated with semi-invariant and C-type Gram-Charlier series. This method not only has higher computational efficiency than Monte Carlo method, but also can reflect the transformation process between variable spaces, and has a better processing effect on the correlation between photovoltaic forces from normal distribution. At the same time, C-type Gram-Charlier series can prevent the probability density from negative. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by an example of IEEE14 node and an actual power grid in southern China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TM744

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