【摘要】：風能和太陽能的大規(guī)模接入為電力系統(tǒng)的調(diào)度和運行帶來巨大挑戰(zhàn)。在實際系統(tǒng)中,區(qū)域氣候的相似性使得風電和光伏發(fā)電出力往往具有一定相關(guān)性。如何有效地描述這種相關(guān)性為電力系統(tǒng)調(diào)度運行人員準確評估當前系統(tǒng)運行面臨的風險,具有十分重要的意義。本文在綜合國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎上,首先介紹了獨立變量形式下風電和光伏出力隨機性的常用描述方法。在此基礎上,引入了Copula函數(shù)描述風電和光伏發(fā)電出力的相關(guān)性,并從三個不同的角度給出了選擇風-光出力的Copula相關(guān)性模型方法,基于實際數(shù)據(jù)的算例對此進行了驗證。隨后,將風-光出力的Copula相關(guān)性模型應用到電力系統(tǒng)運行風險評估中,結(jié)合蒙特卡洛模擬和基于概率距離的場景消除法獲取風電和光伏發(fā)電出力的典型場景;基于場景分析的方法,對含風電和光伏發(fā)電的電力系統(tǒng)運行風險進行評估,構(gòu)建了考慮風-光相關(guān)性的運行風險評估的實現(xiàn)框架和流程,并從節(jié)點電壓越限、線路功率越限以及失負荷三個方面建立了電力系統(tǒng)運行風險的評估指標體系。給出的IEEE24節(jié)點系統(tǒng)算例驗證了本文所提模型和方法是有效的,且對于含相關(guān)性風電和光伏發(fā)電的電力系統(tǒng)開展運行風險評估時,考慮風-光出力的相關(guān)性能夠使電網(wǎng)運行風險評估的結(jié)果更貼近實際,為電力系統(tǒng)調(diào)度運行人員的有效決策提供重要的分析工具。
[Abstract]:The large-scale access of wind and solar energy brings great challenges to the dispatching and operation of power system. In the actual system, the similarity of regional climate makes wind power and photovoltaic power generation often have a certain correlation. How to describe this correlation effectively is of great significance for power system dispatching operators to accurately evaluate the risks faced by the current system operation. Based on the research situation at home and abroad, this paper first introduces the common methods of describing the randomness of wind power and photovoltaic force in the form of independent variables. On this basis, the Copula function is introduced to describe the correlation between wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and the Copula correlation model method for selecting wind and light output forces is presented from three different angles, which is verified by an example based on actual data. Then, the Copula correlation model of wind-light force is applied to the risk assessment of power system operation, and the typical scenarios of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are obtained by combining Monte Carlo simulation and scene elimination method based on probabilistic distance. Based on the method of scene analysis, the operational risk of power system with wind power and photovoltaic power generation is evaluated, and the implementation framework and process of operational risk assessment considering wind and light correlation are constructed, and the threshold of node voltage is exceeded. The evaluation index system of power system operation risk is established in three aspects: line power limit and loss of load. An example of IEEE24 node system is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and method, and the operation risk assessment for the power system with associated wind power and photovoltaic power generation is carried out. Considering the correlation between wind and light forces, the results of risk assessment of power grid operation can be more practical and provide an important analysis tool for the effective decision of dispatching operators in power system.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：TM732

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