【摘要】：為對某一調(diào)度操作可能造成的系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險進(jìn)行數(shù)值化的評價,將風(fēng)險理論引入調(diào)度操作風(fēng)險量化評估中,提出一種滿足風(fēng)險完備性的評估方法。該方法充分考慮了調(diào)度操作風(fēng)險的危害后果和發(fā)生概率,在傳統(tǒng)調(diào)度操作風(fēng)險危害評價的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用N-1最優(yōu)潮流模型計算切負(fù)荷指標(biāo),并考慮關(guān)注度和社會時期的影響作用,對風(fēng)險危害值進(jìn)行校正。此外,計及調(diào)度操作過程中影響風(fēng)險可能性的多維不確定因子,分析并建立風(fēng)險概率評價體系,用于評估調(diào)度操作風(fēng)險的發(fā)生概率�；陲L(fēng)險危害和風(fēng)險概率得出最終的調(diào)度操作風(fēng)險�；贗EEE30節(jié)點系統(tǒng)的計算結(jié)果表明,該方法通過評估各調(diào)度操作步驟的風(fēng)險情況,可在調(diào)度操作執(zhí)行前進(jìn)行風(fēng)險預(yù)演,輔助調(diào)度運(yùn)行人員在下令前對操作可能引起的各類風(fēng)險預(yù)先制定預(yù)控策略,能夠有效降低調(diào)度操作的風(fēng)險水平,維護(hù)電力系統(tǒng)的安全穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the system risk caused by a scheduling operation numerically, the risk theory is introduced into the risk quantification evaluation of scheduling operation, and an evaluation method to satisfy the risk completeness is proposed. In this method, the harmful consequences and occurrence probability of dispatching operation risk are fully considered. On the basis of traditional hazard evaluation of dispatching operation risk, the load shedding index is calculated by using N-1 optimal power flow model, and the influence of attention and social period is considered. The risk hazard value is corrected. In addition, the risk probability evaluation system is analyzed and established to evaluate the occurrence probability of the scheduling operation risk, taking into account the multidimensional uncertainty factors that affect the risk possibility in the process of scheduling operation. Based on the risk hazard and risk probability, the final scheduling operation risk is obtained. The calculation results based on IEEE30 node system show that the method can perform risk preview before the execution of the scheduling operation by evaluating the risk of each scheduling operation step. In order to reduce the risk level of dispatching operation and maintain the safe and stable operation of power system, the auxiliary dispatcher can make a pre-control strategy for all kinds of risks caused by operation before ordering.
【作者單位】： 廣西電網(wǎng)公司電力調(diào)度控制中心;
【基金】：廣西電網(wǎng)公司科技項目(GXKJXM20151051) 國家重點基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展計劃(973計劃)資助項目(2013CB228205)~~
【分類號】：TM73

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