發(fā)布時間：2018-06-26 18:03

  本文選題：電力消費 + 經(jīng)濟增長　； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,我國已成為電力消費第一大國,如何協(xié)調(diào)好電力消費和經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系已成為我國面臨的巨大挑戰(zhàn)。因此,準確把握電力消費和經(jīng)濟增長之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)系,對經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)發(fā)展以及電力能源政策的制定都將有極大的幫助。首先介紹了我國近些年來電力消費和經(jīng)濟增長的情況;然后介紹了面板單位根檢驗理論,面板協(xié)整檢驗理論,變系數(shù)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型理論、Hausman檢驗以及模型的設(shè)定檢驗,為后面的實證分析提供了理論基礎(chǔ)。本文以面板數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),對我國各省區(qū)1995-2013年間的電力消費和經(jīng)濟增長數(shù)據(jù)進行面板單位根檢驗和面板協(xié)整檢驗。結(jié)果表明:電力消費與經(jīng)濟增長均為一階單整序列過程,電力消費與經(jīng)濟增長(GDP)之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系;分位數(shù)模型不能很好的反映電力消費對經(jīng)濟增長的影響程度大小,為了解決這個問題,論文運用變系數(shù)面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸模型對我國各地區(qū)電力消費和經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系進行了研究分析,結(jié)果表明:我國電力消費從空間上看,大體呈現(xiàn)出中間高兩頭低的趨勢,即中部地區(qū)電力消費對經(jīng)濟增長影響程度最大,東部地區(qū)次之,西部地區(qū)影響程度最小;從經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平來看,發(fā)達地區(qū)與欠發(fā)達地區(qū)的影響程度也各不相同,發(fā)達地區(qū)對電力消費的依賴性依然很大,這可能與我國各地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)或太陽能等清潔能源的合理利用有關(guān);分位數(shù)回歸結(jié)果只是得出了不同分位點處電力消費和經(jīng)濟增長的因果關(guān)系,而變系數(shù)面板模型不僅可以得到不同地區(qū)電力消費和經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系,同時也可以得到不同地區(qū)影響程度的大小。因此,我們可以加大對各地區(qū)電力能源的合理利用,為我國建立能源節(jié)約型社會提供了有力的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, our country has become the largest country in power consumption. How to coordinate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth has become a great challenge for our country. Therefore, accurate understanding of the internal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth will be of great help to the sustainable development of economy and the formulation of power energy policy. This paper first introduces the situation of electricity consumption and economic growth in China in recent years, then introduces the panel unit root test theory, panel cointegration test theory, variable coefficient panel data model theory and Hausman test and model setting test. It provides the theoretical basis for the empirical analysis. Based on panel data, this paper applies panel unit root test and panel cointegration test to the data of electric power consumption and economic growth from 1995 to 2013 in all provinces of China. The results show that both electricity consumption and economic growth are first-order single-integer sequence processes, and there is cointegration relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth (GDP), and the quantile model can not well reflect the extent of the influence of electricity consumption on economic growth. In order to solve this problem, the paper uses variable coefficient panel data regression model to study and analyze the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in various regions of China. In general, there is a trend of high and low in the middle, that is, the power consumption in the central region has the greatest impact on economic growth, followed by the eastern region, and the lowest in the western region; from the perspective of the level of economic development, The degree of influence between the developed regions and the less developed regions is different, and the dependence of the developed regions on the electricity consumption is still very large, which may be related to the economic structure of various regions in China or the rational utilization of clean energy such as solar energy. The quantile regression results only show the causality between electricity consumption and economic growth at different loci, and the variable coefficient panel model can not only obtain the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in different regions. At the same time, the degree of influence of different regions can also be obtained. Therefore, we can increase the rational use of electric energy in various regions, and provide a strong basis for the establishment of energy-saving society in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61;O212

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本文編號：2070923