本文選題：電力用戶負(fù)荷 + 負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《江蘇大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展,全社會(huì)的電力需求越來越旺盛,電力供需矛盾也趨于增加,給系統(tǒng)安全穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行帶來很大威脅。應(yīng)運(yùn)而生的電力需求側(cè)管理致力于解決社會(huì)電能開發(fā)、使用、需求等一系列矛盾,如何提升需求側(cè)的管理效率是解決當(dāng)前電能困境的有效措施之一,論文提出的面向客戶端的需求側(cè)管理系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)將使得電力供需管理做到有的放矢。首先,論文結(jié)合電力需求側(cè)管理的主要概念和實(shí)施手段,對(duì)DSM系統(tǒng)總體方案進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)。論文從電力用戶負(fù)荷的分析指標(biāo)、分類、影響因素分析入手,以解決電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷調(diào)控措施的實(shí)施,實(shí)現(xiàn)電力市場(chǎng)相應(yīng)機(jī)制與需求側(cè)響應(yīng)機(jī)制為著力點(diǎn),確立需求側(cè)管理系統(tǒng)的實(shí)施步驟和設(shè)計(jì)關(guān)鍵,開展針對(duì)用電負(fù)荷進(jìn)行優(yōu)化管理的面向客戶端DSM系統(tǒng)的總體設(shè)計(jì)。其次,對(duì)華東某市電網(wǎng)的案例分析,建立負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)模型,采用組合負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)分析方法來對(duì)該市2016年全年用電量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)分析,通過優(yōu)化電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)分析,提升需求側(cè)管理系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)庫的精準(zhǔn)度。最后,根據(jù)案例預(yù)測(cè)分析結(jié)果提出基于電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)的需求側(cè)管理系統(tǒng)需要解決的矛盾,進(jìn)行面向客戶端的DSM系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)。該系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)是建立在優(yōu)化負(fù)荷分析預(yù)測(cè)的基礎(chǔ)上,從電力企業(yè)、電力用戶、政府企業(yè)、能效服務(wù)公司等需求側(cè)參與者之間的信息交互需求出發(fā),在用戶側(cè)能量管理系統(tǒng)上進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)延伸,并結(jié)合不同客戶端的電力能量管理技術(shù),展開企業(yè)能量管理、家庭能量管理、建筑物能源管理子系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì),從而建立滿足多方參與、信息共享、實(shí)時(shí)互動(dòng)的需求側(cè)管理系統(tǒng)。通過基于電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)的需求側(cè)管理系統(tǒng)建立,實(shí)現(xiàn)電網(wǎng)各類設(shè)備負(fù)荷信息采集與交換,同時(shí)使需求側(cè)參與者之間能夠達(dá)到信息與數(shù)據(jù)互通,及時(shí)掌握地區(qū)負(fù)荷、設(shè)備用電等情況以達(dá)到各自對(duì)需求側(cè)管理的響應(yīng),達(dá)到需求側(cè)管理效益的最大化。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the power demand of the whole society is more and more vigorous, and the contradiction of power supply and demand is also increasing, which brings a great threat to the safe and stable operation of the system. DSM emerges as the times require to solve a series of contradictions such as social electric energy development, use, demand and so on. How to improve the efficiency of DSM is one of the effective measures to solve the current power dilemma. The design of the client-oriented demand-side management system will make the power supply and demand management be targeted. Firstly, combining the main concept and implementation of DSM, the paper designs the overall scheme of DSM system. This paper starts with the analysis index, classification and influence factor of the power user load, in order to solve the power network load regulation and control measures, and realize the corresponding mechanism of the electricity market and the demand side response mechanism as the focus. The implementation steps and design keys of the demand side management system are established, and the overall design of the client-oriented DSM system for optimizing power load management is carried out. Secondly, based on the case study of a power network in East China, a load forecasting model is established, and the combined load forecasting analysis method is used to forecast and analyze the electricity consumption of the city for the whole year of 2016 by optimizing the load forecasting analysis of the power grid. Improve the accuracy of the demand side management system database. Finally, according to the result of case analysis, the paper puts forward the contradiction that needs to be solved in the demand-side management system based on power network load forecasting, and designs the client-oriented DSM system. The design of the system is based on the optimization of load analysis and forecasting, starting from the demand side information exchange requirements of power enterprises, power users, government enterprises, energy efficiency service companies and other demand-side participants. The design extension is carried out on the user side energy management system, and the design of enterprise energy management, family energy management and building energy management subsystem is carried out in combination with the power energy management technology of different clients, so as to meet the needs of multi-party participation. Information sharing, real-time interactive demand-side management system. Through the establishment of demand-side management system based on power network load forecasting, the collection and exchange of load information of various equipment in power network can be realized, and the information and data exchange between demand-side participants can be achieved, and the local load can be grasped in time. In order to achieve their response to DSM and maximize the benefits of DSM.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江蘇大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TM73

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本文編號(hào)：1915919