本文選題：新一代智能變電站 + 不確定隨機(jī)系統(tǒng)　； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：受運(yùn)維習(xí)慣、思維固化、技術(shù)瓶頸、專業(yè)涉及廣等方面的影響,智能變電站的發(fā)展遇到了瓶頸,新一代智能變電站是在智能變電站的歷史運(yùn)維經(jīng)驗(yàn)基礎(chǔ)上的再創(chuàng)造,它可破了傳統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)理念,形成一個(gè)開通、動(dòng)態(tài)的系統(tǒng),對(duì)新設(shè)備及前沿技術(shù)具有更強(qiáng)的接納度,因此新一代智能變電站必將成為變電站的發(fā)展方向。新一代智能變電站目前正處于發(fā)展及建設(shè)的初期,在這一階段設(shè)計(jì)方案的分析選擇將是一項(xiàng)重點(diǎn)工程。新一代智能變電站的設(shè)計(jì)方案分析選擇面臨的問題是:(1)已有評(píng)價(jià)模型無法考慮新型設(shè)備的引入問題,由于新設(shè)備的引入會(huì)導(dǎo)致新一代智能變電站在技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)性方面都存在一定程度的改變;(2)已有評(píng)價(jià)模型無法考慮設(shè)計(jì)階段運(yùn)行成本、故障成本、事故發(fā)生次數(shù)等指標(biāo)的不確定性;(3)已有評(píng)價(jià)模型主要定位于管理層,用以衡量戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)程度,且無技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,因此在設(shè)計(jì)方案評(píng)價(jià)實(shí)際應(yīng)用上有一定難度。圍繞以上問題并結(jié)合新一代智能變電站特點(diǎn),本文首先提出了一種實(shí)用性更強(qiáng)的改進(jìn)安全效能成本評(píng)價(jià)模型(Security Efficiency Cost,SEC),并應(yīng)用此模型來對(duì)新一代智能變電站設(shè)計(jì)方案進(jìn)行評(píng)選,此模型充分考慮到新一代智能變電站的特點(diǎn)及設(shè)計(jì)方案階段的各種不確定性。在效能分析方面,為解決新型設(shè)備引入后因歷史可靠性數(shù)據(jù)的缺乏而導(dǎo)致效能分析難以進(jìn)行的問題,本文提出基于不確定隨機(jī)系統(tǒng)的可靠性分析方法,此法將新型設(shè)備的可靠性作為不確定變量,并傳統(tǒng)設(shè)備的可靠性數(shù)據(jù)作為隨機(jī)變量,然后應(yīng)用不確定理論及最小路集算法求出新一代智能變電站主接線的可靠性數(shù)據(jù)。論文同時(shí)考慮到了保護(hù)系統(tǒng)對(duì)于主接線系統(tǒng)的可靠性影響。在安全分析方面,為解決設(shè)計(jì)方案階段事故發(fā)生次數(shù)的不確定性問題,論文以重大事故發(fā)生次數(shù)、中等事故發(fā)生次數(shù)、一般事故發(fā)生次數(shù)表征安全性,考慮到以上三個(gè)指標(biāo)的不確定性,論文通過蒙特卡羅法予以處理。在經(jīng)濟(jì)分析方面,為解決設(shè)計(jì)階段故障成本及運(yùn)行成本的未知問題,論文利用可靠性成本來表征上述兩類成本指標(biāo),而可靠性與經(jīng)濟(jì)性通過平均停電損失電能指標(biāo)聯(lián)系;為解決各項(xiàng)成本指標(biāo)在模型中所占權(quán)重的問題,論文利用基于熵權(quán)的模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法確定四項(xiàng)二級(jí)成本指標(biāo)之間的權(quán)重,將客觀運(yùn)算權(quán)重與專家主觀評(píng)分權(quán)重分別添加一個(gè)占比系數(shù),然后以合理的方式將兩個(gè)權(quán)重加權(quán)結(jié)合起來,避免了主觀性及指標(biāo)的模糊性對(duì)權(quán)重確定工作造成的影響。論文最后利用220k V新一代智能變電站的典型設(shè)計(jì)方案進(jìn)行綜合性評(píng)選,驗(yàn)證本文所提方法的正確性及可行性。
[Abstract]:Affected by operation and maintenance habits, thinking solidification, technical bottleneck, specialty involved in a wide range of aspects, the development of intelligent substations has encountered bottlenecks. The new generation of intelligent substations is recreated on the basis of the historical operation and maintenance experience of intelligent substations. It can break through the traditional design concept, form a open and dynamic system, and have a stronger acceptance of new equipment and frontier technology. Therefore, the new generation of intelligent substation will become the development direction of substation. The new generation intelligent substation is now in the early stage of development and construction. The analysis and selection of design scheme will be a key project in this stage. The problem facing the analysis and selection of the new generation intelligent substation design scheme is that the existing evaluation model cannot consider the introduction of new equipment. Since the introduction of new equipment will lead to a certain degree of technical and economic changes in the new generation of intelligent substations, the existing evaluation model can not take into account the operating cost and failure cost of the design phase. (3) the existing evaluation models are mainly located at the management level, which are used to measure the degree of achievement of strategic objectives, and there is no comprehensive evaluation model in terms of technology and economy. Therefore, it is difficult to evaluate the design scheme in practice. According to the above problems and the characteristics of the new generation intelligent substation, this paper first puts forward a cost evaluation model of improved safety effectiveness, Security Efficiency cost evaluation model, and applies this model to evaluate the design scheme of the new generation intelligent substation. This model fully takes into account the characteristics of the new generation intelligent substation and various uncertainties in the design scheme stage. In the aspect of efficiency analysis, in order to solve the problem that efficiency analysis is difficult because of the lack of historical reliability data after the introduction of new equipment, a reliability analysis method based on uncertain stochastic system is proposed in this paper. In this method, the reliability of a new type of equipment is regarded as an uncertain variable, and the reliability data of a traditional equipment is taken as a random variable. Then, the reliability data of the main connection of a new generation intelligent substation are obtained by using the uncertainty theory and the minimum path set algorithm. At the same time, the effect of the protection system on the reliability of the main connection system is considered. In the aspect of safety analysis, in order to solve the uncertainty of the number of accidents in the stage of design scheme, the safety is characterized by the number of major accidents, the number of moderate accidents and the number of general accidents. Considering the uncertainty of the above three indexes, the paper deals with them by Monte Carlo method. In the aspect of economic analysis, in order to solve the unknown problem of failure cost and operation cost in design stage, the reliability cost is used to characterize the two kinds of cost indexes, and reliability and economy are related by the average power loss index. In order to solve the problem of the weight of each cost index in the model, the paper uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight to determine the weight between the four secondary cost indicators. The objective operation weight and the expert subjective score weight are respectively added with a duty ratio coefficient, and then the two weights are combined in a reasonable way to avoid the influence of subjectivity and the fuzziness of the index on the weight determination work. At the end of this paper, the typical design scheme of 220kV new generation intelligent substation is used for comprehensive selection, which verifies the correctness and feasibility of the proposed method.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TM63;TM76

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