本文選題：智能電網(wǎng) + 事件驅(qū)動計算�。� 參考：《華北電力大學(北京)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：智能電網(wǎng)將逐步推廣分布式能源高滲透率、電動汽車與雙向互動技術(shù),涌現(xiàn)的大量主動實體及其智能監(jiān)控系統(tǒng)將涉及海量測量流式數(shù)據(jù)、實時數(shù)據(jù)交換通信與系統(tǒng)高度復(fù)雜性,建立實時在線監(jiān)測分析、高反應(yīng)性與可擴展的大數(shù)據(jù)流式計算管理平臺尤為關(guān)鍵。本文分析了智能電網(wǎng)分布式實時監(jiān)控特征,數(shù)據(jù)密集型監(jiān)測大數(shù)據(jù)在線實時分析應(yīng)用需求,應(yīng)用以數(shù)據(jù)為中心基于發(fā)布/訂閱(P/S)的實時消息中間件,建立高度分布、異構(gòu)、動態(tài)與自組織的主動實體監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)流在線實時收集與共享的分布式大數(shù)據(jù)管理應(yīng)用架構(gòu);基于復(fù)雜事件處理(CEP)研究智能電網(wǎng)高性能流式計算、模式匹配與主動響應(yīng)決策應(yīng)用技術(shù)。主要工作如下:(1)提出建立專業(yè)化的智能電網(wǎng)監(jiān)控分布式實時大數(shù)據(jù)管理系統(tǒng),以滿足能源物聯(lián)網(wǎng)中物理上高度分布、異構(gòu)、動態(tài)與自組織的自治實體為核心的實時在線監(jiān)測計算與反應(yīng)性控制需求。基于最新通用大數(shù)據(jù)流式計算架構(gòu)模式分析,提出面向智能電網(wǎng)監(jiān)控系統(tǒng)專業(yè)化的事件驅(qū)動的分布式流式數(shù)據(jù)處理應(yīng)用技術(shù)架構(gòu),采用基于復(fù)雜事件處理技術(shù)(CEP)的多源事件流實時在線查詢和模式匹配的處理層與基于P/S的DDS通信服務(wù)的消息層的分層獨立設(shè)計模式,構(gòu)成分布式CEP的流式計算體系,同時給出其關(guān)鍵實現(xiàn)技術(shù)與需求側(cè)雙向互動應(yīng)用的案例分析。(2)在ICT中,智能電網(wǎng)在線監(jiān)控應(yīng)用屬于分布式實時系統(tǒng)集成,其實時通信技術(shù)成為研究焦點;本文提出了基于DDS建立智能電網(wǎng)實時P/S通信服務(wù)的架構(gòu)模型與信息安全部署設(shè)計。基于DDS的智能電網(wǎng)實時通信服務(wù)需要遵循IEC 61850標準體系,針對智能電網(wǎng)IEC 61850通信標準的抽象通信服務(wù)接口(ACSI)具體映射實現(xiàn)的不一致和復(fù)雜性的難點問題,本文應(yīng)用DDS實時中間件支持通用化的基于P/S模式的IEC61850通信實現(xiàn)方法,提出模型驅(qū)動軟件開發(fā)(MDSD)的基于DDS的IEC 61850ACSI的統(tǒng)一映射實現(xiàn)方法,支持Qo S通信策略的動態(tài)配置;并給出智能變電站GOOSE多播通信案例分析與實驗驗證。面向IEC 61850元模型的DDS映射實現(xiàn)具有簡捷實用性,由自描述SCL配置語言易于實現(xiàn)通用化的ACSI通信統(tǒng)一動態(tài)配置管理。進一步工作將開發(fā)基于DDS的用戶配置實用化軟件。(3)本文梳理了分布式CEP事件模型與應(yīng)用體系;提出適合智能電網(wǎng)監(jiān)控的語義CEP事件本體模型與語義查詢處理流程;以及主動配電網(wǎng)(ADN)分層監(jiān)控中基于DDS的分布式多CEP Agent服務(wù)的應(yīng)用部署方法。事件模型標準化是支持對事件的采集、通信、存儲與分析,提高電力系統(tǒng)運行動態(tài)反應(yīng)性的基礎(chǔ)性問題。電力系統(tǒng)動態(tài)交互中存在海量數(shù)據(jù)與事件的信息交換,目前規(guī)范了CIM數(shù)據(jù)交換標準,但表達動態(tài)特性的事件交換標準仍沒有制定。本文研究建立智能電網(wǎng)語義CEP系統(tǒng)的標準化的事件本體模型;作為案例分析,設(shè)計了AMI監(jiān)測類事件本體知識庫系統(tǒng),實現(xiàn)對監(jiān)測事件流的主題、時間與空間的語義及其關(guān)聯(lián)的知識表示,提高語義CEP基于知識庫的模式匹配與查詢能力。CEP是流式計算的高級模式,支持多源事件流模式匹配與主動響應(yīng),符合智能電網(wǎng)監(jiān)控系統(tǒng)對運行狀態(tài)與行為在線分析的特定需求。本文梳理了CEP核心事件模型、模式匹配查詢語言與規(guī)則,以及分布式CEP服務(wù)架構(gòu)模型,明確了架構(gòu)中通信接口對系統(tǒng)可擴展性的支持。提出了以數(shù)據(jù)為中心的DDS通信服務(wù)標準化接口支持分布式CEP應(yīng)用部署;針對分布式能源高滲透率的ADN分層分布式監(jiān)控模式,部署可隨需定制的層次化CEP Agent節(jié)點實現(xiàn)主動實時監(jiān)控管理,DDS數(shù)據(jù)總線支持CEP Agent部署的異步性、并發(fā)性與自組織特性,以建立靈活的可擴展的高反應(yīng)性的主動實時監(jiān)控應(yīng)用,并給出了面向全局數(shù)據(jù)空間(GDS)的CEP多類型事件主題注冊管理與案例分析。(4)研究了智能電網(wǎng)用戶需求側(cè)雙向互動關(guān)鍵應(yīng)用技術(shù)問題,本文提出了自動需求響應(yīng)(ADR)系統(tǒng)中基于DDS/CEP的分布式監(jiān)控服務(wù)集成架構(gòu),以及與用戶雙向互動的需求響應(yīng)性能實時在線監(jiān)測分析方法;并開發(fā)了分布式CEP用戶響應(yīng)性能計算仿真實驗進行驗證。ADR是體現(xiàn)智能電網(wǎng)與用戶雙向互動,適應(yīng)分布式能源高滲透率的最佳應(yīng)用。本文基于Open ADR通用事件模型和IEC PC118智能電網(wǎng)用戶接口標準,開展了ADR系統(tǒng)的雙向互動技術(shù)的應(yīng)用研究。以用戶基線負荷與需求響應(yīng)性能實時在線監(jiān)測分析為案例,定義CEP服務(wù)節(jié)點功能;設(shè)計ADR事件驅(qū)動的需求側(cè)事件模型及查詢算法;提出擴展CEP引擎的實時與歷史數(shù)據(jù)流混合查詢算法及其性能實驗測試,開發(fā)了分布式的ADR CEP用戶響應(yīng)性能在線計算仿真實驗。進一步工作將探索在大規(guī)�？焖貯DR中分布式CEP監(jiān)控服務(wù)集成的實際應(yīng)用潛力。(5)提出數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動的智能電表非線性負荷序列分段預(yù)測新穎算法。目前基于核方法(KM)的非參數(shù)模型是繼人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法的富有前景的短期負荷預(yù)測方法。本文提出模糊C聚類與基于KM的非參數(shù)模型的組合預(yù)測算法,并采用某地區(qū)實際負荷數(shù)據(jù)的詳細實驗與誤差分析,驗證組合模型具有較高的預(yù)測精度。模型簡單可靠、訓練參數(shù)少、具有良好的時間性能、自適應(yīng)性強,可推廣應(yīng)用到智能電網(wǎng)監(jiān)測時序大數(shù)據(jù)短期預(yù)測分析。
[Abstract]:Smart grid will gradually extend the high permeability of distributed energy, electric vehicle and two-way interactive technology, a large number of active entities and their intelligent monitoring systems will involve mass measurement of flow data, real-time data exchange communication and high complexity of the system, real-time online monitoring and analysis, high responsiveness and extensible large data flow meter. The computing management platform is particularly critical. This paper analyzes the characteristics of distributed real-time monitoring of smart grid, the application requirements of data intensive monitoring data online real-time analysis, and the application of data centric P/S based real-time message middleware to establish a highly distributed, heterogeneous, dynamic and self-organizing active entity monitoring data stream online. Real-time collection and sharing of distributed large data management application architecture; based on complex event processing (CEP) research on smart grid high performance flow computing, pattern matching and active response decision application technology. The main work is as follows: (1) a specialized distributed real-time large data management system for smart grid monitoring is proposed to meet the energy resources Federation. The real-time on-line monitoring calculation and response control demand at the core of the physical highly distributed, heterogeneous, dynamic and self-organizing autonomous entities. Based on the latest general large data flow computing architecture model, an event driven distributed flow data processing application technology architecture oriented to the specialization of the smart grid monitoring system is proposed. The hierarchical independent design pattern of multi source event flow real-time online query and pattern matching based on complex event processing technology (CEP) and the message layer of P/S based DDS communication service is designed to form a flow computing system of distributed CEP. At the same time, the case analysis of the key implementation technology and the two-way interactive application of the demand side is given. (2) ICT The online monitoring and application of smart grid belongs to the distributed real-time system integration, and the real time communication technology is the focus of research. This paper proposes a framework model and information security deployment design based on DDS for the establishment of real-time P/S communication service in smart grid. The DDS based real-time communication service of smart grid needs to follow the IEC 61850 standard system and aim at the intelligence. The abstract communication service interface (ACSI) of the power grid IEC 61850 Communication Standard mapped the difficult and difficult problem of the inconsistency and complexity. This paper applies the DDS real-time middleware to support the universal IEC61850 communication implementation method based on the P/S mode, and proposes a unified mapping implementation of the IEC 61850ACSI based on DDS in the model driven software development (MDSD) development (MDSD). Methods, support the dynamic configuration of Qo S communication strategy, and give the case analysis and experimental verification of GOOSE multicast communication in intelligent substation. The DDS mapping for the IEC 61850 element model is simple and practical, and the unified dynamic configuration management of ACSI communication is easy to be realized by the self description SCL configuration language. Further work will be developed based on DDS The user configuration practical software. (3) this paper combed the distributed CEP event model and application system, proposed semantic CEP event ontology model and semantic query processing process suitable for smart grid monitoring, and the application deployment method of distributed multi CEP Agent service based on DDS in active distribution network (ADN) stratified monitoring. Event model standard It is the basic problem that supports the acquisition, communication, storage and analysis of events, and the basic problem of improving the dynamic response of the power system. There is a exchange of information between massive data and events in the dynamic interaction of the power system. At present, the standard of CIM data exchange is standardized, but the event exchange standard that expresses the dynamic characteristics is still not formulated. This paper studies the establishment of intelligence. The standard event ontology model of the power grid semantic CEP system is standardized. As a case analysis, the AMI monitoring class event ontology knowledge base system is designed to realize the theme of the monitoring event flow, the semantic and related knowledge of the time and space, and to improve the semantic CEP based on the pattern matching and query ability of the knowledge base, which is the high flow calculation. The level mode supports multi source event flow pattern matching and active response, which conforms to the specific requirements for the online analysis of the running state and behavior of the smart grid monitoring system. This paper combs the CEP core event model, the pattern matching query language and rules, and the distributed CEP service architecture model, and makes clear that the communication interface is extensible to the system in the architecture. A data centric DDS communication service standardization interface is proposed to support distributed CEP application deployment. A hierarchical and distributed ADN distributed monitoring model for distributed energy high permeability is proposed, and a hierarchical CEP Agent node is deployed to implement active real-time monitoring and management, and DDS data bus supports the asynchronism of CEP Agent deployment. Concurrency and self-organizing features, in order to establish flexible and scalable and highly reactive active real-time monitoring applications, and give a CEP multi type event topic registration management and case analysis oriented to global data space (GDS). (4) the key application technology problems of the two way mutual interaction in the demand side of the smart grid users are studied. The automatic requirement is proposed in this paper. The distributed monitoring service integration architecture based on DDS/CEP in response (ADR) system and the real-time online monitoring and analysis method of demand response performance in two-way interaction with users; and developing a distributed CEP user response performance simulation experiment to verify that.ADR reflects the two-way interaction between the smart grid and the users and adapts to the high penetration of distributed energy. Based on the Open ADR universal event model and the IEC PC118 smart grid user interface standard, this paper has carried out the application research of the two-way interactive technology of the ADR system. Using the real-time online monitoring and analysis of the user baseline load and the demand response performance as a case, the definition of the node function of the CEP service and the design of the demand side event driven by the ADR event is designed. Model and query algorithm; propose an extended CEP engine real-time and historical data flow hybrid query algorithm and its performance test test. A distributed ADR CEP user response performance online calculation simulation experiment is developed. Further work will explore the practical application potential of distributed CEP monitoring service integration in large-scale and fast ADR. (5) data The non parametric model based on the kernel method (KM) is a promising short-term load forecasting method based on artificial neural network. This paper proposes a combination pre calculation method of fuzzy C clustering and KM based non parametric model, and uses the actual load data in a certain area. The detailed experiment and error analysis show that the combined model has high prediction accuracy. The model is simple and reliable, and the training parameters are few. It has good time performance and strong adaptability. It can be applied to the short term prediction analysis of the time series of smart grid monitoring.

【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TM76
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本文編號：1832361