本文選題：配電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃 + 電力需求預(yù)測(cè)　； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：合理的配電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃是提高運(yùn)行靈活性及供電可靠性、降低電能損耗的基礎(chǔ)。本論文從作者參與的實(shí)際工作出發(fā),對(duì)海西州配電網(wǎng)絡(luò)現(xiàn)狀及配電網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)劃進(jìn)行了深入研究。本文針對(duì)海西州電源點(diǎn)布局情況、110kV/35kV/10kV變電站及線路情況、電網(wǎng)設(shè)備及運(yùn)行年限等方面做了較為詳細(xì)的闡述。同時(shí)根據(jù)海西州配電網(wǎng)主要運(yùn)行指標(biāo)對(duì)電網(wǎng)現(xiàn)狀分析診斷。通過(guò)對(duì)青海省海西州區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)情況調(diào)查,結(jié)合該地區(qū)區(qū)域配電網(wǎng)絡(luò)現(xiàn)狀,并根據(jù)2005年-2016年海西州歷史負(fù)荷增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)及負(fù)荷特性規(guī)律,利用年均增長(zhǎng)率法、產(chǎn)值單耗法、回歸分析法等3種方法綜合分析出海西州2017-2020年全社會(huì)用電量預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果;利用最大負(fù)荷利用小時(shí)數(shù)法、大用戶+自然負(fù)荷法等方法得出海西州2017-2020年最大負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果,根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果制訂了電源點(diǎn)規(guī)劃方案。結(jié)合海西州電網(wǎng)實(shí)際情況,依據(jù)國(guó)家電網(wǎng)公司對(duì)配電網(wǎng)的規(guī)劃目標(biāo)及技術(shù)原則的相關(guān)導(dǎo)則,按照為用戶提供充足、可靠、優(yōu)質(zhì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)的電力供應(yīng)的總體目標(biāo),規(guī)劃具有結(jié)構(gòu)完善、技術(shù)領(lǐng)先、高效互動(dòng)、靈活可靠等特征的配電網(wǎng)�；诤Ｎ髦菪履茉醇胺植际诫娫窗l(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,結(jié)合新能源及分布式電源規(guī)劃目標(biāo),對(duì)新能源接入配電網(wǎng)適應(yīng)性進(jìn)行分析�；谂潆娋W(wǎng)自動(dòng)化建設(shè)目標(biāo)和主要原則,預(yù)測(cè)“十三五”期間配電自動(dòng)化建設(shè)規(guī)模及投資,預(yù)估建成后配電自動(dòng)化成效。該工作旨在對(duì)未來(lái)幾年海西州配電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃建設(shè)提供技術(shù)支撐和參考,以更好的滿足區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對(duì)電網(wǎng)建設(shè)的要求。
[Abstract]:Reasonable distribution network planning is the basis to improve the operation flexibility, power supply reliability and reduce power loss. Based on the practical work of the author, this paper makes a deep study on the distribution network status and distribution network planning in Haixi Prefecture. In this paper, the distribution of power supply points in Haixi is described in detail in terms of 110 kV / 35 kV / 10 kV substations and lines, power network equipment and operation life. At the same time, according to the main operating indicators of Haixi distribution network, the current situation of the network is analyzed and diagnosed. Through the investigation of the regional economic situation in Haixi Prefecture, Qinghai Province, combined with the present situation of the regional distribution network in the region, and according to the trend of historical load growth and the characteristics of the load in Haixi from 2005 to 2016, the method of average annual growth rate and the method of unit consumption of output value are used. Three methods, such as regression analysis, are used to analyze the forecast results of the total social electricity consumption in Haixi during 2017-2020, and the maximum load forecasting results for 2017-2020 in Haixi are obtained by using the maximum load hours method and the natural load method of large users. According to the forecast result, the power point planning scheme is established. According to the actual situation of Haixi electric network, according to the relevant guidelines of the State Grid Company's planning objectives and technical principles of distribution network, according to the overall goal of providing sufficient, reliable, high-quality and economical power supply to customers, Planning has the characteristics of perfect structure, leading technology, high-efficiency interaction, flexible and reliable distribution network. Based on the present situation of new energy and distributed power generation in Haixi, the adaptability of new energy to distribution network is analyzed. Based on the objectives and main principles of distribution network automation construction, the scale and investment of distribution automation construction during the 13th Five-Year Plan period are predicted, and the effect of distribution automation after completion is estimated. The purpose of this work is to provide technical support and reference for the planning and construction of distribution network in Haixi Prefecture in the next few years so as to better meet the requirements of regional economic development for grid construction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TM715

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本文編號(hào)：1818915