本文選題：電力需求預(yù)測 + 全社會用電量　； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：安全、穩(wěn)定、堅強(qiáng)的電網(wǎng)環(huán)境是社會經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展的重要保障,電力需求預(yù)測是電力市場分析的重要組成部分,是編制行業(yè)生產(chǎn)計劃的基礎(chǔ),也是電力企業(yè)編制企業(yè)計劃、投資項目和進(jìn)行經(jīng)營活動的基礎(chǔ)。因此,準(zhǔn)確、可靠的電力需求預(yù)測是提高電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃水平的重要前提。本文以煙臺市福山地區(qū)的電力需求情況為研究對象,通過收集基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),選擇合理的數(shù)學(xué)模型,開展了煙臺市福山區(qū)短期電力市場預(yù)測和中長期電力需求的預(yù)測研究。主要研究內(nèi)容為:(1)根據(jù)用電量基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),分析了自2005年以來福山區(qū)負(fù)荷增長趨勢、各產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量增長率、居民用電量增長率、負(fù)荷特性指標(biāo)、最大峰谷差、最大負(fù)荷利用時間等數(shù)據(jù),確定了預(yù)測變量及其相關(guān)變量。(2)建立基于時間序列法和用電性質(zhì)法短期電力市場預(yù)測模型,確定了短期預(yù)測評價指標(biāo),研究了時間序列法對全社會用電量進(jìn)行預(yù)測和用電性質(zhì)法對售電量預(yù)測的預(yù)測過程,并與實際數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對比,驗證了預(yù)測方法的有效性,同時也提出了短期電力市場預(yù)測的困難和提高短期電力市場預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確率的措施。(3)通過產(chǎn)值單耗法、灰色系統(tǒng)理論法對福山區(qū)社會用電量進(jìn)行中長期電力市場預(yù)測,并通過電力彈性系數(shù)法對預(yù)測結(jié)果進(jìn)行校核及相關(guān)因素分析,通過預(yù)測對比發(fā)現(xiàn)灰色理論法并不適合煙臺市福山區(qū)的長期電力市場預(yù)測,而產(chǎn)值單耗法中的中方案,比較適合煙臺市福山區(qū)的中長期電力市場預(yù)測。本文的研究成果為煙臺市福山區(qū)電力市場預(yù)測提供有力的指導(dǎo)和借鑒。
[Abstract]:A safe, stable and strong power grid environment is an important guarantee for the rapid development of social economy. Power demand forecasting is an important part of power market analysis, the basis for compiling industry production plans, and is also the basis for power enterprises to compile enterprise plans. The basis for investing in projects and conducting business activities. Therefore, accurate and reliable power demand prediction is an important prerequisite to improve the power network planning level. This paper takes the situation of electricity demand in Fushan area of Yantai City as the research object, through collecting the basic data, choosing the reasonable mathematical model, carrying out the short-term electricity market forecast and the medium and long term electricity demand forecast research of the Fushan District of Yantai City. Based on the basic data of electricity consumption, this paper analyzes the trend of load growth in Fushan District since 2005, the growth rate of electricity consumption of various industries, the rate of electricity consumption of residents, the characteristic index of load, the maximum peak and valley difference. Based on the time series method and the electricity nature method, the short-term power market forecasting model is established, and the short-term forecasting evaluation index is determined. The forecasting process of the time series method to the whole society electricity consumption and the electricity nature method to the electricity sale forecast are studied, and compared with the actual data, the validity of the forecasting method is verified. At the same time, it also puts forward the difficulty of short-term electricity market prediction and the measures to improve the accuracy of short-term electricity market forecasting. The paper makes a medium and long term power market forecast for social electricity consumption in Fushan area by using the method of unit consumption of output value and the grey system theory method. By checking the forecast results and analyzing the relevant factors by using the method of electric power elasticity coefficient, it is found that the grey theory method is not suitable for the long-term electricity market forecast in Fushan District of Yantai City, and the middle scheme of the output value unit consumption method is not suitable. More suitable for Yantai City Fushan long-term electricity market forecast. The research results of this paper provide powerful guidance and reference for power market prediction in Fushan District of Yantai City.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61

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