本文選題：大規(guī)模光伏發(fā)電 + 光伏發(fā)電容量可信度�。� 參考：《合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：在能源安全和環(huán)境保護(hù)的雙重約束下,光伏發(fā)電在電力系統(tǒng)中的滲透率逐年提高。光伏發(fā)電在發(fā)揮其滿足電力負(fù)荷需求的同時(體現(xiàn)為“電量價值”),還對電力系統(tǒng)容量充裕度具有不容忽略的貢獻(xiàn)(體現(xiàn)為“容量價值”)。為了充分發(fā)揮及凸顯光伏發(fā)電作為電源的重要特性,有必要對光伏發(fā)電的容量價值進(jìn)行合理評估。本文用光伏發(fā)電的容量可信度描述光伏發(fā)電的容量價值,并從輻照強(qiáng)度分布及光伏電站輸出功率的時空模型建立、基于可靠性計算的光伏容量可信度評估流程、光伏容量可信度通用性評估模型、光伏發(fā)電容量可信度的不確定性分析及光伏發(fā)電容量可信度的改善措施等五個方面對光伏發(fā)電的容量可信度進(jìn)行逐層深入的分析。具體工作內(nèi)容如下:(1)提出計及云層遮陰等多種影響因素的光照輻射強(qiáng)度的時空模型及計算方法,考慮了光伏組件溫度對電站輸出功率的影響,基于一階低通濾波模型建立了適應(yīng)多時間空間尺度的光伏電站輸出功率模型。首先,通過建立云朵的Perlin噪聲隨機(jī)游走模型模擬了因云層遮陰導(dǎo)致的太陽輻射空間分布的隨機(jī)性和不均勻性。此外,搭建了光伏組件高分辨率溫度模型,該模型考慮了組件溫度與輻照強(qiáng)度的滯后效應(yīng)。最后,結(jié)合輻照強(qiáng)度及組件溫度模型,建立了光伏電站輸出功率的一階低通濾波模型。該模型的建立為后續(xù)光伏發(fā)電容量可信度的研究提供了可靠的數(shù)據(jù)支撐。(2)在光伏電站輸出功率模型的基礎(chǔ)上,提出利用Monte Carlo仿真及通用生成函數(shù)法(universal generating function,UGF)兩種方法計算含光伏發(fā)電的多狀態(tài)系統(tǒng)可靠性�；谟行лd荷容量(effective load carrying capability,ELCC)指標(biāo),對比分析了上述兩種方法在光伏發(fā)電容量可信度評估中的應(yīng)用。對影響光伏發(fā)電的各因素進(jìn)行了敏感性分析,得到影響光伏發(fā)電容量可信度的主要因素。(3)在分析影響光伏發(fā)電容量可信度因素的基礎(chǔ)上,利用人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)搭建了容量可信度通用性評估模型,揭示了光伏發(fā)電容量可信度增量與光伏滲透率增量間的邊際效應(yīng)遞減規(guī)律。同時,評估了計及光伏系統(tǒng)性能衰減下的光伏容量可信度在其壽命周期內(nèi)的變化情況,指出了容量可信度的時變性。該通用性模型的建立便于系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃人員快速確定光伏的容量價值及其對電力系統(tǒng)的影響。(4)為表征不確定性對容量可信度評估的影響,提出了基于三元區(qū)間數(shù)的光伏發(fā)電可靠性及容量可信度的不確定性評估方法。將UGF模型拓展到三元區(qū)間數(shù)形式的UGF模型(TPIUGF)中,并搭建了常規(guī)機(jī)組、光伏發(fā)電及負(fù)荷的三元區(qū)間數(shù)TPIUGF模型。通過改進(jìn)型的三元區(qū)間數(shù)的布谷鳥搜索算法求解光伏發(fā)電的容量可信度。為了縮小搜索空間,采用了黃金分割法的區(qū)間縮減技術(shù);為了加快收斂速度,提出了改進(jìn)型的區(qū)間數(shù)形式的正交實(shí)驗(yàn)法�；谌獏^(qū)間數(shù)的光伏容量可信度評估方法在指出容量可信度概率極大值的同時,其波動范圍也為生產(chǎn)決策人員提供了參考依據(jù)。(5)提出通過引入儲能系統(tǒng)提高光伏發(fā)電容量可信度的措施,基于最大功率波動率模型及基于小波包分解方法分別確定了儲能系統(tǒng)的功率容量配置。并分析了儲能系統(tǒng)三種不同控制策略對提高光伏發(fā)電容量可信度的影響,指出以提高光伏-負(fù)荷相關(guān)性為目標(biāo)的控制策略有最好的效果。研究儲能對光伏容量可信度的改善為光伏發(fā)電的并網(wǎng)及消納提供了重要途徑。本文建立的光伏發(fā)電容量可信度評估模型為含光伏發(fā)電的電力系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃尤其是新型電源結(jié)構(gòu)下的電源規(guī)劃問題提供了理論參考。為光伏發(fā)電的友好型并網(wǎng)、實(shí)現(xiàn)光伏與電網(wǎng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展、創(chuàng)新電力系統(tǒng)未來運(yùn)行管理模式等均有參考價值。
[Abstract]:Under the dual constraints of energy security and environmental protection, the permeability of photovoltaic power generation in the power system is increasing year by year. At the same time, the photovoltaic power generation can satisfy the demand of the power load ("the value of electricity"), and the capacity margin of the power system has no negligible contribution ("capacity value"). It is necessary to reasonably evaluate the capacity value of photovoltaic power generation. This paper describes the capacity value of photovoltaic power generation with the reliability of the capacity of photovoltaic power generation, and establishes the reliability of the photovoltaic capacity based on the distribution of radiation intensity and the time and space model of the output power of the photovoltaic power station. The evaluation process, the reliability evaluation model of PV capacity reliability, the uncertainty analysis of the reliability of photovoltaic capacity and the improvement measures of the capacity reliability of photovoltaic power generation are analyzed in depth by layer by layer in five aspects. The specific contents are as follows: (1) a variety of factors such as cloud shading are proposed. The space-time model and calculation method of the intensity of light radiation are taken into consideration. The output power model of the photovoltaic power station adapts to the multi time space scale based on the first order low pass filter model. First, the Perlin noise random walk model of the cloud is established to simulate the cloudy shade caused by the cloud. The spatial distribution of solar radiation is randomness and inhomogeneity. In addition, a high resolution temperature model of photovoltaic modules is built. The model takes into account the lag effect of component temperature and irradiation intensity. Finally, the first order low pass filter model of the output power of photovoltaic power station is established by combining the radiation intensity and the component temperature model. The research on the reliability of subsequent photovoltaic capacity provides reliable data support. (2) on the basis of the output power model of the photovoltaic power plant, it is proposed to use the Monte Carlo simulation and the universal generation function method (Universal generating function, UGF) to calculate the reliability of the multi state system with photovoltaic power generation. Based on the payload capacity (EFF), the capacity of the photovoltaic power generation (EFF) is calculated. Ective load carrying capability, ELCC) index, compared and analyzed the application of the above two methods in the assessment of the capacity of photovoltaic power generation. The sensitivity analysis of the factors affecting the photovoltaic power generation was analyzed, and the main factors influencing the reliability of the photovoltaic power generation capacity were obtained. (3) the basis for the analysis of the reliability factors of the photovoltaic power generation capacity was analyzed. On the other hand, a general evaluation model of capacity reliability is built by artificial neural network. The law of diminishing marginal effect between the increment of reliability of photovoltaic power generation capacity and the increment of photovoltaic permeability is revealed. At the same time, the variation of the reliability of the photovoltaic capacity under the performance of the photovoltaic system is evaluated, and the capacity is pointed out. The establishment of this universal model facilitates the system planners to quickly determine the capacity value of PV and its influence on the power system. (4) in order to characterize the impact of uncertainty on capacity reliability assessment, an uncertainty evaluation method based on the three element interval number of photovoltaic power generation reliability and capacity reliability is proposed. UGF The model is extended to the UGF model (TPIUGF) of the three element interval number, and the three element interval number TPIUGF model of the conventional unit, the photovoltaic power generation and the load is built. The capacity reliability of the photovoltaic power generation is solved by a cuckoo search algorithm of improved three yuan interval number. In order to reduce the search space, the interval reduction technique of gold segmentation is adopted. In order to speed up the convergence speed, an improved orthogonal experimental method of interval number is proposed. The method of evaluating the reliability of photovoltaic capacity based on three element interval numbers indicates the maximum of the capacity reliability probability, and its fluctuation range provides the reference basis for the production decision makers. (5) it is proposed to improve the PV hair by introducing the energy storage system. The measure of the capacity reliability is based on the maximum power volatility model and the wavelet packet decomposition method to determine the power capacity configuration of the energy storage system. The influence of three different control strategies on the reliability of the photovoltaic power generation capacity is analyzed. The control strategy for improving the photovoltaic load correlation is pointed out. The improvement of the reliability of energy storage for photovoltaic capacity provides an important way for the grid and cancellation of photovoltaic power generation. This paper provides a theoretical reference for the power system planning, especially in the new power supply structure, for photovoltaic power generation. It has reference value for friendly grid connection, realizing the coordinated development of PV and power grid, and innovating the future operation and management mode of power system.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TM615
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本文編號：1802207