本文選題：京津冀地區(qū)　切入點：電力工業(yè)碳排放　出處：《華北電力大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：二氧化碳(CO_2)等溫室氣體排放引發(fā)的全球氣候變暖已經成為當今世界面臨的重要政治、經濟和環(huán)境問題,為此,國際社會展開了廣泛討論和積極合作。中國作為全球最大的CO_2排放國,多次在世界性會議上作出減排承諾,并將CO_2排放總量控制目標分解至地區(qū)(省、市)和產業(yè)層面,層層推進,力爭實現(xiàn)2030年的減排目標。同時,基于中國的資源稟賦,電力工業(yè)面臨著化石能源消耗量高和CO_2排放規(guī)模龐大等問題,是節(jié)能減排的重點領域之一。本研究在京津冀地區(qū)一體化協(xié)同發(fā)展背景下,深入探尋京津冀地區(qū)電力工業(yè)CO_2排放的影響因素,進而挖掘其CO_2減排潛力,提出相應的減排建議,對實現(xiàn)電力工業(yè)低碳發(fā)展,助力京津冀地區(qū)協(xié)同發(fā)展與低碳城市建設,具有重大的現(xiàn)實意義。本文以1995-2014年京津冀地區(qū)電力工業(yè)CO_2排放為研究對象,首先從京津冀地區(qū)及電力工業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀入手,根據能源消耗數據測算了1995-2014年間京津冀地區(qū)電力工業(yè)CO_2排放量,并對其變化特征及存在的問題進行分析;其次,綜合發(fā)電環(huán)節(jié)、電力調入調出環(huán)節(jié)、輸配電環(huán)節(jié)和電力終端消費環(huán)節(jié),建立對數平均迪氏指數(LMDI)遞階分解模型,將影響京津冀地區(qū)電力工業(yè)CO_2排放的因素分解為發(fā)電能源結構、電力結構、發(fā)用電比例等10個因素,并對各因素的作用效果進行深入分析,結果表明,1995-2014年間京津冀地區(qū)電力工業(yè)CO_2排放的正向驅動因素依次為經濟規(guī)模效應、人口規(guī)模效應、輸配電損失效應和產業(yè)結構效應,負向驅動因素依次為產業(yè)電耗強度效應、發(fā)電煤耗效應、發(fā)用電比例效應、居民生活電耗強度、電力結構效應和發(fā)電能源結構效應;最后,基于LMDI預測模型與情景分析法,科學設置出2020年京津冀地區(qū)電力工業(yè)發(fā)展的3種情景,對2015-2020年京津冀地區(qū)電力工業(yè)CO_2減排潛力進行分析研究,并因地制宜地從電力低碳發(fā)展規(guī)劃、電力需求側管理、能源結構調整、低碳電源和外調綠電通道建設等多方面提出促進京津冀地區(qū)電力工業(yè)CO_2減排的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Carbon dioxide (CO_2) and other greenhouse gas emissions caused by global warming has become an important political facing the world today, economic and environmental problems, therefore, the international community launched a wide-ranging discussion and cooperation. China as the world's largest emitter of CO_2, many of the world conference to make commitments, and CO_2 emission control target decomposition to region (province, city) and the industry level, step by step, and strive to achieve the 2030 target. At the same time, China resources based on the electric power industry is faced with the problem of high volume and CO_2 emissions of large consumption of fossil energy, is one of the key areas of energy conservation. In this study, the integration of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region cooperation under the background of the development, further explore the factors influencing industrial CO_2 emission of Beijing Tianjin Hebei Power, and tap the potential of CO_2 emission reduction, and puts forward the corresponding suggestions to achieve power reduction. Low carbon industrial development, boost the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region coordinated development and the construction of low-carbon city, is of great practical significance. This paper takes 1995-2014 years in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region electric power industry CO_2 emissions as the research object, firstly from the current development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and the electric power industry of energy consumption, according to the data measured during the past 1995-2014 years, the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Industrial CO_2 emissions the amount of electric power, and the characteristics and existing problems are analyzed; secondly, integrated power generation, transmission and distribution of power transferred to transfer link, link and terminal power consumption, a logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) hierarchical decomposition model, the factors affecting the industrial emissions of CO_2 in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region power into energy structure. The power structure, electricity proportion of the 10 factors, in-depth analysis, and the effect of various factors. The results show that the 1995-2014 years between the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region power Positive drivers of industrial CO_2 emissions are economic scale, population scale, transmission loss effect and industrial structure effect, negative drive factors of industry power consumption intensity effect, coal consumption effect, electricity proportion effect, residents living consumption intensity, power structure effect and energy structure effect; finally, LMDI prediction model and scenario analysis method based on Science, set up 3 scenarios in 2020 Beijing Hebei electric power industry development, research and analysis of the 2015-2020 years of CO_2 emission reduction potential of electric power industry in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, and to be in low carbon development planning of power, power demand side management, the adjustment of energy structure, many aspects of low carbon power and the redeployment of green electricity corridor construction put forward to promote the CO_2 reduction of power industry in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region policy recommendations.

【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X322;F426.61

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