本文關(guān)鍵詞： 區(qū)域風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測 EOF分解 層次聚類法 升尺度預(yù)測　出處：《電網(wǎng)技術(shù)》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：區(qū)域風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測對于保障風(fēng)電消納及電網(wǎng)安全經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行具有重要意義。由于新建風(fēng)電場在并網(wǎng)初期尚未建立預(yù)測系統(tǒng)及各風(fēng)電場預(yù)測精度參差不齊,經(jīng)典的單場功率累加法預(yù)測精度并不高。提出一種基于風(fēng)電功率數(shù)據(jù)特征聚類的區(qū)域風(fēng)電功率統(tǒng)計升尺度預(yù)測方法,首先使用經(jīng)驗(yàn)正交函數(shù)(empirical orthogonal function,EOF)法解析區(qū)域內(nèi)風(fēng)電出力特征,然后采用層次聚類法劃分子區(qū)域,并利用風(fēng)電場的相關(guān)系數(shù)和預(yù)測精度選取代表風(fēng)電場,最后根據(jù)代表風(fēng)電場的預(yù)測功率及權(quán)重系數(shù)完成區(qū)域風(fēng)電功率的升尺度預(yù)測。應(yīng)用冀北電網(wǎng)2015年的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計升尺度建模和方法驗(yàn)證。結(jié)果表明,相比累加法,文中提出的統(tǒng)計升尺度方法可改進(jìn)區(qū)域風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測精度,同時減少區(qū)域預(yù)測模型對單風(fēng)電場數(shù)據(jù)完備性和預(yù)測精度的依賴。
[Abstract]:Regional wind power prediction is of great significance for ensuring wind power consumption and the safe and economic operation of power grid. Since the new wind farm has not yet established a prediction system in the initial stage of grid connection and the prediction accuracy of each wind farm is not uniform. The classical single-field power accumulation method is not accurate. A regional wind power statistical scaling prediction method based on wind power data clustering is proposed. Firstly, the empirical orthogonal orthogonal function EOF method is used to analyze the characteristics of wind power generation in the region. Then the hierarchical clustering method is used to divide the sub-area, and the correlation coefficient and prediction precision of wind farm are selected to represent the wind farm. Finally, according to the predicted power and weight coefficient of wind farm, the upscaling prediction of regional wind power is completed. The statistical scaling modeling and method verification are carried out by using the actual data of 2015 in Hebei power grid. The results show that. Compared with the cumulative method, the statistical scaling method proposed in this paper can improve the prediction accuracy of regional wind power and reduce the dependence of the regional prediction model on the data completeness and prediction accuracy of single wind farm.
【作者單位】： 電力系統(tǒng)及發(fā)電設(shè)備控制和仿真國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(清華大學(xué));國網(wǎng)冀北電力有限公司電力科學(xué)研究院;
【基金】：國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計劃支持項(xiàng)目(2016YFB0900101) 國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51677099)~~
【分類號】：TM614
【正文快照】： 0引言風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測是新能源調(diào)度的關(guān)鍵基礎(chǔ),根據(jù)風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測曲線優(yōu)化日前機(jī)組組合、動態(tài)滾動調(diào)整常規(guī)機(jī)組出力,降低備用容量,從而降低系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行成本[1-2]。風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測通常針對單個風(fēng)電場開展[3],但隨著風(fēng)資源富集地區(qū)的電源集中開發(fā),逐步形成了大規(guī)模風(fēng)電基地,區(qū)域風(fēng)電出力，

本文編號：1468660