本文關(guān)鍵詞：高比例風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)提高消納能力的研究　出處：《沈陽(yáng)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 風(fēng)電消納 風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測(cè) 時(shí)間序列模型 儲(chǔ)能容量 儲(chǔ)發(fā)一體

【摘要】：現(xiàn)階段,霧霾等氣候環(huán)境問題日益突顯,常規(guī)化石能源儲(chǔ)量有限等環(huán)境和能源問題已成為全世界普遍關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)課題。各個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)都在倡導(dǎo)能源轉(zhuǎn)型和能源結(jié)構(gòu)改革,我國(guó)可再生能源發(fā)展"十三五"規(guī)劃也明確提出逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)由以化石能源消耗為主的高碳能源模式向以可再生能源為能源消費(fèi)主體的低碳能源模式過(guò)渡,促進(jìn)能源轉(zhuǎn)型。近幾十年,全球都在提升可再生能源的發(fā)展與利用,世界及我國(guó)風(fēng)力發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量逐年攀升,從2010年至今我國(guó)風(fēng)電總裝機(jī)容量一直處于世界首位。但是,我國(guó)風(fēng)電消納卻未能居于世界前列。選題立足高比例風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)背景下,以提高風(fēng)電消納能力為研究目標(biāo),以不同時(shí)空尺度的風(fēng)電運(yùn)行特性分析為先導(dǎo),凝練了風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測(cè)研究與風(fēng)電儲(chǔ)能研究?jī)蓚�(gè)主要研究方向開展相關(guān)研究工作,即提高風(fēng)功率預(yù)測(cè)精度從可靠性方面提高電力系統(tǒng)對(duì)風(fēng)電消納,儲(chǔ)能配置是從調(diào)峰角度提高風(fēng)電消納。以大數(shù)據(jù)分析為研究的總體思路開展不同時(shí)空尺度的風(fēng)電運(yùn)行特性分析研究,歸納了風(fēng)電場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)分析的層次結(jié)構(gòu),風(fēng)電場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)分類框架結(jié)構(gòu)及不同時(shí)空尺度風(fēng)電運(yùn)行特性分析架構(gòu)體系。對(duì)風(fēng)電場(chǎng)的月度和日頻以及風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)的日頻和十分鐘運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了收集整理,開展了風(fēng)電場(chǎng)月發(fā)電量季節(jié)性分析,風(fēng)電場(chǎng)日發(fā)電量波動(dòng)性、相關(guān)性以及日限電率分析。對(duì)風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)的日均風(fēng)速、日發(fā)電量和日平均風(fēng)速與日發(fā)電量相關(guān)性、日損耗電量與日平均溫度相關(guān)性,以及風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)十分鐘風(fēng)速與功率數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了分析,并利用中位數(shù)區(qū)間估計(jì)方法繪制了實(shí)際運(yùn)行風(fēng)功率曲線。在保證系統(tǒng)電力電量平衡的前提下,通過(guò)分析研究確立了長(zhǎng)時(shí)間尺度以發(fā)電量研究為主有助于風(fēng)電消納規(guī)劃,短時(shí)間尺度以輸出功率研究為主以確保風(fēng)電的實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)度消納。同時(shí),通過(guò)對(duì)風(fēng)電數(shù)據(jù)的季節(jié)性、相關(guān)性、波動(dòng)性及分布特性及限電率等指標(biāo)進(jìn)行研究分析,進(jìn)而明晰了論文從四個(gè)具體研究方向?qū)崿F(xiàn)提高風(fēng)電消納能力研究,分別是風(fēng)電場(chǎng)月發(fā)電量預(yù)測(cè)研究,風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)超短期輸出功率預(yù)測(cè)研究,風(fēng)電場(chǎng)/風(fēng)電集群集中儲(chǔ)能容量確定研究和基于就地儲(chǔ)能的儲(chǔ)發(fā)一體風(fēng)力發(fā)電系統(tǒng)研究。立足預(yù)測(cè)波動(dòng)研究,引入計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和非參數(shù)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的分析和建模方法,開展中期和超短期風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測(cè)方法的研究。利用季節(jié)變動(dòng)時(shí)間序列模型、Holt-Winter季節(jié)性指數(shù)平滑模型、SARIMA季節(jié)時(shí)間序列模型以及基于熵值法的組合預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)風(fēng)電場(chǎng)月發(fā)電量數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行建模預(yù)測(cè),通過(guò)對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的評(píng)估分析驗(yàn)證了預(yù)測(cè)方法的適用性和合理性。另外,利用ARIMAX引入外生變量的時(shí)間序列模型進(jìn)行風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)超短期風(fēng)功率預(yù)測(cè)研究,并從確定性點(diǎn)預(yù)測(cè)擴(kuò)展到不確定的概率區(qū)間預(yù)測(cè),提高了預(yù)測(cè)的可信度,為風(fēng)電實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)度消納提供有效的參考。以平抑風(fēng)電波動(dòng),提高風(fēng)電消納以及探索"源-網(wǎng)-荷-儲(chǔ)"運(yùn)營(yíng)模式為研究目標(biāo),開展風(fēng)電儲(chǔ)能研究。對(duì)現(xiàn)行電力系統(tǒng)的儲(chǔ)能方式進(jìn)行了歸納分析,提出了按照大規(guī)模集中儲(chǔ)能、小容量分散儲(chǔ)能和即發(fā)即儲(chǔ)就地儲(chǔ)能三種儲(chǔ)能布置方案及其結(jié)構(gòu)。研究了消納最大化和經(jīng)濟(jì)性分析相結(jié)合的確定風(fēng)電場(chǎng)/風(fēng)電集群的釩液流電池儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)容量方法。另一方面,采用以平抑波動(dòng)為目標(biāo)來(lái)確定風(fēng)力發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的就地儲(chǔ)能布置方案,即從源頭遏制風(fēng)電出力的波動(dòng)性,提出了儲(chǔ)能前置和儲(chǔ)能后置兩種儲(chǔ)發(fā)一體風(fēng)力發(fā)電系統(tǒng)模型結(jié)構(gòu),分析了兩種儲(chǔ)能模型串并聯(lián)結(jié)構(gòu)的特點(diǎn),并分別設(shè)計(jì)了儲(chǔ)能前置和儲(chǔ)能后置兩種儲(chǔ)發(fā)一體風(fēng)力發(fā)電系統(tǒng)模型。綜上所述,在高比例風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)背景下,以風(fēng)電運(yùn)行特性為依據(jù),以提高風(fēng)電消納能力目標(biāo),研究了風(fēng)電場(chǎng)月發(fā)電量建模及預(yù)測(cè),風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)超短期風(fēng)功率建模及預(yù)測(cè),基于釩液流電池的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)/風(fēng)電集群儲(chǔ)能容量確定方法和基于就地儲(chǔ)能的儲(chǔ)發(fā)一體風(fēng)力發(fā)電系統(tǒng)模型,為提高電力系統(tǒng)風(fēng)電消納探索了行之有效的技術(shù)方法。
[Abstract]:At present, the haze problem of climate and environment increasingly, conventional fossil energy reserves is limited and other environmental and energy issues have become a hot topic of common concern of the whole world. Various countries and regions are advocating the transformation of energy and energy restructuring, energy development planning "13th Five-Year" China Renewable also clearly gradually realize the high carbon energy mode from the consumption of fossil energy transition to low carbon energy to renewable energy as the main energy consumption, promote energy transformation. In recent decades, the global increase in development and utilization of renewable energy, the world and China's wind power installed capacity increased year by year, since 2010 China's total installed capacity of wind power has been in the first in the world. However, China's wind power consumption but not in the world. Based on the topic of high proportion of wind power under the background, in order to improve the absorptive capacity of wind power for research purpose Standard to wind power operation characteristics of different space-time scale analysis for the pilot, the refining of wind power prediction of two main research directions to carry out research work of wind power storage, improve the prediction accuracy of wind power from aspects of improving the reliability of wind power consumptive power system, energy storage configuration from the angle to improve the wind load power consumption. To analyze large data analysis of wind power operation characteristics of different spatial and temporal scales as the research framework, summarizes the structure analysis of wind field data, analysis system of wind farm data classification framework and different space-time scale wind power operation characteristics. On the frequency of wind farm and wind on monthly and frequency the generator and ten minutes of operation data were collected, carried out analysis of the season wind farm power generation, wind power generation, volatility, correlation and Analysis on power rate The daily average wind speed of the wind turbine. The generation of correlation, and daily average wind speed and generation, daily consumption and daily average temperature dependence, and wind power generators ten minute wind speed and power data are analyzed, and the median interval estimation method of drawing the wind power curve of the actual operation. Under the premise of ensuring the balance of power system next, through the analysis and research has established long time scale in power generation research mainly contributes to the wind power planning, the short time scale with output power of research to ensure the real-time scheduling of accommodating wind power. At the same time, through the season, the wind power data correlation, volatility and distribution characteristics and power rate etc. the index of research and analysis, and then clear the papers from the four specific orientation of research to improve the absorptive capacity of wind power, are the prediction of monthly power generation capacity of wind farm, wind power generation Prediction of machine of ultra short term power output of wind farm cluster / wind power centralized storage system to determine the capacity of research and the research of wind power generation system in energy storage. Based on the one based on the volatility forecasting research, analysis and modeling method of introducing econometrics and non parametric statistics, research on medium and ultra short term wind power prediction method the use of seasonal variation. Time series model, Holt-Winter seasonal exponential smoothing model, SARIMA model and seasonal time series forecasting model based on entropy method of wind farm power generation data modeling and forecasting, through the evaluation and Analysis on the prediction results validate the prediction method of applicability and rationality. In addition, the time series model by introducing ARIMAX exogenous wind turbine ultra short term wind power prediction research, and from the deterministic point prediction is extended to probabilistic interval prediction uncertainty Test, improves the reliability of prediction, provide effective reference for wind power consumption. In order to stabilize the real-time scheduling of wind power fluctuation, improve the wind power and the exploration of the source network load - reservoir operation mode as the research object, carry out the storage of wind power research. The current power system for energy storage the inductive analysis, put forward according to the large-scale centralized storage capacity, small dispersed storage and send local storage storage three storage layout and structure. Study on Determination of vanadium in wind farm cluster / wind power flow battery energy storage system capacity for consumptive maximization and economic analysis of the combination. On the other hand, used to stabilize fluctuations as the goal to determine the local storage for wind energy generation system layout, from the source to curb the fluctuation of wind power output, puts forward energy storage and storage two pre post storage one model of wind power generation system, analyzed two kinds of The storage model on the parallel architecture, and designed respectively storage and storage two pre post storage one model of wind power generation system. To sum up, in a high proportion of wind power in the background, the operational characteristics of wind power as the basis, to improve the absorptive capacity of wind power generation, wind farm modeling and June study on prediction, ultra short term wind power generator wind power modeling and prediction of wind / vanadium flow battery for wind power cluster storage capacity determination method and based on the local energy storage one wind power generation system based on the model, in order to improve the power system of wind power consumptive explores an effective method.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽(yáng)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TM614;TM73

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