盧薩卡的公共交通問(wèn)題可以追溯到?jīng)Q定城市形成方式的殖民時(shí)代。這個(gè)問(wèn)題一直存在的原因在于該國(guó)尚未退出旨在服務(wù)歐洲小型定居者社區(qū)的殖民地規(guī)劃模式。后殖民運(yùn)輸?shù)墓芾碇萌糌杪?也沒(méi)有強(qiáng)調(diào)大眾運(yùn)輸方式的重要性/好處。自獨(dú)立以來(lái),贊比亞經(jīng)歷了政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)上的變化,但交通運(yùn)輸體系并未發(fā)生重大轉(zhuǎn)變。政治上的變化帶來(lái)了道路運(yùn)輸?shù)淖杂苫?汽車(chē)數(shù)量的增加與道路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的有限增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生了矛盾。盧薩卡是非洲城市化程度最高的城市之一,有超過(guò)兩百二十萬(wàn)人口。這種城市化給城市服務(wù)帶來(lái)了壓力,包括交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。本研究的重點(diǎn)是在盧薩卡這樣擁擠的城市實(shí)施集體運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng),特別是研究了輕軌系統(tǒng)LRT的適用性。傳統(tǒng)的四步模型被用在GIS擴(kuò)展軟件“Transcad”中,用以確定未來(lái)城市中的旅行模式和交通需求。運(yùn)輸需求模型是在R中使用多元回歸分析開(kāi)發(fā)的。該研究清楚地表明,旅行集中在商務(wù)和工作中心,其中大多數(shù)（旅行）是以家庭為基礎(chǔ)的（他們的起源地和/或目的地為家中）。這也清楚地表明,盧薩卡市在高峰時(shí)段的交通流量遠(yuǎn)大于大部分公路的通行能力,因?yàn)?030年預(yù)測(cè)的沿Kafue公路前往Kafue的最大交通流量為28774 PPHPD。而該交通量適用于... 

【文章來(lái)源】：東南大學(xué)江蘇省 211工程院校 985工程院校 教育部直屬院校

【文章頁(yè)數(shù)】：140 頁(yè)

【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
List of Acronyms
ABSTRACT
摘要
1 : INTRODUCTION
    1.1 Background
    1.2 Problem statement
    1.3 General objective
        1.3.1 Specific objectives
    1.4 Research questions
    1.5 Organization of the study
    1.6 Study area
        1.6.1 Geographical setting
        1.6.2 Demography
        1.6.3 Transportation system
        1.6.4 Trip Characteristics
        1.6.5 Road Traffic
        1.6.6 Bus Type
        1.6.7 Railway
    1.7 Chapter Summary
2 LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.1 Overview
    2.2 The influence of rail transit on city development
    2.3 Light rail as an alternative for automobile
    2.4 Ridership
    2.5 Urban density and LRT
    2.6 Review of Available Model Approach
    2.7 Direct Approach model
    2.8 Definition and the role of light rail
    2.9 Why Light Rail Transit
    2.10 Technology option
    2.11 Chapter Summary
3 : METHODOLOGY
    3.1 : Overview
    3.2 Data source
    3.3 Identification of traffic analysis zone
    3.4 Theory on FSM
        3.4.1 Overview
        3.4.2 Trip generation analysis
        3.4.3 Trip Production Analysis
        3.4.4 Trip attraction Analysis
        3.4.5 Trip Distribution
        3.4.6 Modal Split
        3.4.7 Traffic Assignment
    3.5 Demand Forecasting and model process
    3.6 Evaluation of alternatives
    3.7 Chapter Summary
4 DATA PROCESSING, ANALYSIS AND DISCUSION
    4.1 Regression analysis approach
    4.2 Formulation of regression equations
    4.3 Model Development
    4.4 Major key areas for works and business
    4.5 Model validation
    4.6 Data base management in Transcad
    4.7 Trip Generation
    4.8 Trip balancing results
    4.9 Trip distribution results
    4.10 Modal Split
    4.11 Traffic Assignment
    4.12 Route selection
    4.13 Chapter Summary
5 ECONOMIC ANALISIS (EVALUATION)
    5.1 Overview
    5.2 Definition of alternatives
        5.2.1 Option 1: Do nothing case
        5.2.2 Option 2: With the project case
    5.3 System operation plan (rolling stock plan)
        5.3.1 Target passenger demand
        5.3.2 Train Operation Plan at Peak Hour
        5.3.3 Calculation of Required Number of Train-sets/Vehicles
    5.4 Economic internal rate of return (EIRR)
        5.4.1 Method and Assumptions
        5.4.2 Hypothesis
        5.4.3 Economic Benefits
        5.4.4 Cost Estimation principles
        5.4.5 Conditions of Cost Estimation
        5.4.6 Replacement time
    5.5 Cost Calculation
        5.5.1 Construction Costs
        5.5.2 Operation and maintenance cost
        5.5.3 Labour Cost
        5.5.4 Other expenses
    5.6 Benefit Calculation
        5.6.1 Transportation Users Benefit
        5.6.2 Travelling Time savings
        5.6.3 Automobile operating costs (VOC)
        5.6.4 Land Use and Urban Development
        5.6.5 Economic Development
        5.6.6 Accident Cost savings
        5.6.7 Emissions
        5.6.8 Revenue
        5.6.9 Calculation of EIRR
    5.7 Risk Assessment
        5.7.1 Sensitivity analysis
    5.8 Chapter Summary
6 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    6.1 Conclusion
    6.2 Recommendations
7 REFERENCES
8 APPENDICES



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