本文關(guān)鍵詞： 時間預(yù)測 航線擬合 航線匹配 AIS信息　出處：《重慶大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：由于控制河段航道條件復(fù)雜，船舶接受通行信號臺指揮只能單向通行。通用的指揮方法是基于人工的指揮和采用AIS的智能通行指揮，其判定船舶通行順序的一個重要依據(jù)是估算船舶從上指揮斷面和下指揮斷面到達(dá)控制河段上界限標(biāo)的時間。目前智能通行指揮系統(tǒng)按照固定航線進(jìn)行時間估計，然而船舶實際航行中所選擇的航線受水位、流速、載重等諸多因素影響，因此實際的航行時間與估計時間差別較大，嚴(yán)重影響系統(tǒng)通行指揮信號的準(zhǔn)確性，降低了控制河段通行效率。因此，開展如何提高控制河段航道通行效率和安全的相關(guān)研究具有重要的理論和實踐意義。 本文以長江航道瀘渝段神背嘴控制河段為研究背景，探索如何從大量歷史航線數(shù)據(jù)中尋找符合當(dāng)前環(huán)境條件的最佳航線，并以此進(jìn)行船舶點到點航行時間預(yù)測算法研究，以提高航行時間的估算精度，為控制河段智能通行指揮系統(tǒng)提供更可靠的支持。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容包括以下幾個方面： ①利用AIS船舶自動識別系統(tǒng)采集控制河段內(nèi)通行船舶的數(shù)據(jù)，并建立歷史數(shù)據(jù)庫。對船舶歷史通行數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，，總結(jié)內(nèi)河船舶航行規(guī)律。 ②提出了基于航線匹配的內(nèi)河船舶點到點航行時間預(yù)測算法，對算法流程進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)分析和說明。 ③針對所提預(yù)測算法中的航線擬合方法，分別對最小二乘法、三次樣條插值法和B樣條函數(shù)擬合方法進(jìn)行了研究，實現(xiàn)了基于AIS的航線擬合。 ④通過對待匹配航線的特征點提取，利用基于等價關(guān)系的傳遞閉包法對待匹配航線和歷史航線進(jìn)行模糊聚類，通過截集選擇與待匹配航線最為接近的歷史航線，實現(xiàn)最優(yōu)航線匹配。 ⑤應(yīng)用實際的航線歷史數(shù)據(jù)對航線擬合和航線匹配進(jìn)行仿真，驗證了算法的有效性。
[Abstract]:Because of the complex conditions of controlling the channel of the river reach, the ship can only pass in one direction under the command of the signalling station. The general command method is based on artificial command and intelligent traffic command using AIS. An important basis for judging the order of passage of ships is to estimate the time of the ship from the upper command section and the lower command section to the upper limit of the control reach. At present, the intelligent passage command system estimates the time according to the fixed route. However, the route chosen in actual navigation is affected by many factors, such as water level, velocity, load and so on, so the actual sailing time and estimated time are quite different, which seriously affects the accuracy of system traffic command signal. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to improve the passage efficiency and safety of the channel. In this paper, based on the research background of Shenbeizui control section in the Luyu section of the Yangtze River channel, this paper explores how to find the best route according to the current environmental conditions from a large number of historical route data. The prediction algorithm of ship point to point navigation time is studied in order to improve the accuracy of navigation time estimation. The main contents of this paper include the following aspects: The main contents of this paper are as follows: 1. Using AIS automatic ship identification system to collect and control the data of ships passing through the river, and to set up a historical database, to analyze the historical passage data of ships, and to summarize the navigation rules of inland river ships. 2. The prediction algorithm of point to point navigation time of inland river ship based on route matching is proposed, and the flow of the algorithm is analyzed and explained in detail. (3) the least square method, cubic spline interpolation method and B-spline function fitting method are studied respectively for the route fitting method of the proposed prediction algorithm, and the route fitting method based on AIS is realized. (4) by extracting the feature points of the matching routes, the transfer closure method based on the equivalence relation is used to deal with the matching routes and the historical routes for fuzzy clustering. The optimal route matching is realized by selecting the historical route closest to the route to be matched. 5. The simulation of route fitting and route matching is carried out by using the actual route history data, and the validity of the algorithm is verified.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U675.7

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