本文選題：概率論　切入點(diǎn)：隨機(jī)過程　出處：《兵工學(xué)報(bào)》2017年08期

【摘要】：步進(jìn)應(yīng)力加速退化試驗(yàn)已發(fā)展成高可靠、長壽命產(chǎn)品可靠性評估與剩余壽命估計(jì)的主要試驗(yàn)方法。為研究測量誤差在基于步進(jìn)應(yīng)力加速退化試驗(yàn)方法剩余壽命估計(jì)中的影響,建立了基于Wiener過程的考慮個(gè)體差異和測量誤差的退化模型。將Wiener過程的漂移系數(shù)隨機(jī)化描述個(gè)體差異,在首達(dá)時(shí)間意義下得到了壽命分布的概率密度函數(shù)�；跇O大似然估計(jì)法對模型中引入的未知參數(shù)進(jìn)行估計(jì)。采用蒙特卡洛方法對激光器的性能退化進(jìn)行了仿真研究。研究結(jié)果表明,考慮測量誤差的退化模型的模型擬合性和剩余壽命估計(jì)精度都優(yōu)于不考慮測量誤差的方法,可以提高可靠性估計(jì)的精度與剩余壽命預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性。
[Abstract]:Step stress accelerated degradation test has been developed into the main test method for reliability evaluation and residual life estimation of long life products. In order to study the effect of measurement error on residual life estimation of step stress accelerated degradation test method, A degenerate model considering individual difference and measurement error based on Wiener process is established. The drift coefficient of Wiener process is randomized to describe individual difference. The probability density function of lifetime distribution is obtained in the sense of first arrival time. The unknown parameters introduced in the model are estimated based on maximum likelihood estimation method. The performance degradation of laser is simulated by Monte Carlo method. Research. The results of the study show that. The model fitting and residual life estimation accuracy of the degenerate model considering measurement error are better than the method without considering measurement error, which can improve the accuracy of reliability estimation and residual life prediction.
【作者單位】： 燕山大學(xué)先進(jìn)鍛壓成形技術(shù)與科學(xué)教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;燕山大學(xué)河北省重型機(jī)械流體動(dòng)力傳輸與控制重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【分類號】：TB302

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本文編號：1657100