發(fā)布時間：2019-06-06 16:47

【摘要】：近年來,隨著鐵路行業(yè)的飛速發(fā)展,鐵路突發(fā)事件時有發(fā)生,給人民的生命財產(chǎn)以及國民經(jīng)濟造成了極大的損失。因此,鐵路行業(yè)應(yīng)急能力的建設(shè)與提升對于應(yīng)對突發(fā)事件有著重要的現(xiàn)實意義。當(dāng)前,鐵路行業(yè)應(yīng)急能力方面的相關(guān)研究比較少,應(yīng)急能力機制還不夠完善,應(yīng)急能力指標(biāo)評價體系存在一定局限性。所以,針對鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急能力評價指標(biāo)的研究是一個非常重要的課題。本文對鐵路應(yīng)急能力指標(biāo)進行探索,構(gòu)建了鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急能力指標(biāo)評價體系,運用區(qū)間數(shù)偏序關(guān)系和群決策相關(guān)理論建立評價模型對鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急能力指標(biāo)進行科學(xué)評價。首先,根據(jù)鐵路相關(guān)領(lǐng)域突發(fā)事件、應(yīng)急能力的概念,圍繞鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急能力的基本理論,通過查閱文獻、分析現(xiàn)有研究成果和向?qū)＜艺{(diào)研等方法,依據(jù)鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急能力的復(fù)雜性和指標(biāo)評價標(biāo)準難確定性特點,對所有的應(yīng)急能力影響因素進行較為全面的分析,以科學(xué)性和客觀性、可測性和可行性、全面性和簡明性、獨立性和穩(wěn)定性、實用性和導(dǎo)向性為指標(biāo)評價的選取原則,并不斷修改完善,建立了鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急能力兩級評價體系,包括應(yīng)急人員保障、應(yīng)急資源保障、應(yīng)急預(yù)案管理、應(yīng)急響應(yīng)、應(yīng)急信息發(fā)布及管理、應(yīng)急恢復(fù)6個一級指標(biāo)和相應(yīng)24個二級指標(biāo)。其次,考慮到指標(biāo)評價標(biāo)準難確定性和專家對信息的偏好,在確定指標(biāo)權(quán)重時,運用區(qū)間數(shù)表示指標(biāo)成對比較偏序關(guān)系和指標(biāo)權(quán)重,能夠有效的解決決策專家對指標(biāo)判斷上的模糊性和不確定性。傳統(tǒng)AHP方法是通過構(gòu)造成對比較判斷矩陣來計算指標(biāo)權(quán)重,對判斷矩陣的要求必須通過一致性檢驗,否則要對判斷矩陣進行補充和修正。本文利用層析分析法中的判斷矩陣,以一致性檢驗結(jié)果最小為目標(biāo),采用非線性規(guī)劃模型計算指標(biāo)權(quán)重,很好的解決傳統(tǒng)AHP方法的不足,而且該方法簡單易行、可靠性高。然而,決策者個體由于權(quán)利、專業(yè)、經(jīng)驗等因素的不同,在決策過程中有很大局限性,往往很難做出準確合理的決策。因此,本文在研究個體決策的基礎(chǔ)上考慮群體決策的情況,分析個體決策和群體決策的不同情況,進行研究。本文采用個體方案權(quán)重向量集結(jié)法,融合區(qū)間數(shù)偏序關(guān)系運算法則,在集結(jié)各單獨個體決策專家的方案權(quán)重向量時考慮個體決策者的權(quán)重系數(shù)。最終通過相對熵理論建立非線性規(guī)劃模型,將個體權(quán)重結(jié)果集結(jié)成群體的方案權(quán)重向量,并由此獲得決策群體對方案的最終排序結(jié)果。該方法避免了個體決策的獨斷權(quán)利,很好的解決了群體決策偏好不一致的問題,決策結(jié)果更為合理。最后,應(yīng)用實例驗證了評價方法的有效性和合理性,通過個體決策和群體決策得到了的鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急能力指標(biāo)評價結(jié)果并進行分析,結(jié)果表明群體決策最終權(quán)重排序結(jié)果更切合實際。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of railway industry, railway emergencies occur from time to time, causing great losses to people's lives and property and the national economy. Therefore, the construction and promotion of emergency capacity in railway industry is of great practical significance to deal with emergencies. At present, there are few related research on emergency capacity of railway industry, the mechanism of emergency response capacity is not perfect, and there are some limitations in the evaluation system of emergency capacity index. Therefore, it is a very important topic to study the evaluation index of railway emergency response capacity. In this paper, the index of railway emergency ability is explored, and the evaluation system of railway emergency ability index is constructed. The evaluation model is established by using the partial order relation of interval number and the theory of group decision making to evaluate the emergency ability index of railway emergency scientifically. First of all, according to the concept of emergency and emergency capacity in railway related fields, around the basic theory of railway emergency response capacity, through consulting the literature, analyzing the existing research results and expert investigation and other methods, According to the complexity of railway emergency response capacity and the difficult deterministic characteristics of index evaluation criteria, this paper makes a more comprehensive analysis of all the influencing factors of emergency response capacity, in order to be scientific and objective, testability and feasibility, comprehensiveness and simplicity. Independence and stability, practicability and orientation are the selection principles of index evaluation, and constantly modify and improve, and establish a two-level evaluation system of railway emergency response capacity, including emergency personnel support, emergency resources support, emergency plan management. Emergency response, emergency information release and management, emergency recovery 6 first-level indicators and corresponding 24 second-level indicators. Secondly, considering the difficulty of certainty of index evaluation criteria and the preference of experts for information, when determining the index weight, the interval number is used to represent the pairwise partial order relationship and index weight of the index. It can effectively solve the fuzziness and uncertainty of decision-making experts in the judgment of indicators. The traditional AHP method calculates the index weight by constructing a pairwise comparative judgment matrix. The requirements of the judgment matrix must pass the consistency test, otherwise the judgment matrix must be supplemented and modified. In this paper, the judgment matrix of tomographic analysis is used, and the nonlinear programming model is used to calculate the index weight with the goal of minimizing the consistency test results, which solves the shortcomings of the traditional AHP method very well, and the method is simple and feasible, and the reliability is high. However, due to the different rights, specialties, experiences and other factors, individual decision makers have great limitations in the decision-making process, and it is often difficult to make accurate and reasonable decisions. Therefore, on the basis of studying individual decision-making, this paper considers the situation of group decision-making, analyzes the different situations of individual decision-making and group decision-making, and carries on the research. In this paper, the individual scheme weight vector set method is used to combine the interval number partial order relation algorithm to consider the weight coefficient of the individual decision maker when assembling the scheme weight vector of each individual decision expert. Finally, the nonlinear programming model is established by relative entropy theory, and the individual weight results are aggregated into the scheme weight vector of the group, and the final ranking result of the decision group to the scheme is obtained. This method avoids the arbitrary right of individual decision-making, solves the problem of inconsistent preference of group decision-making, and the decision-making result is more reasonable. Finally, the effectiveness and rationality of the evaluation method are verified by an example, and the evaluation results of railway emergency response ability index are obtained and analyzed through individual decision-making and group decision-making. The results show that the final weight ranking results of group decision making are more realistic.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U298

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本文編號：2494451