【摘要】：為增強(qiáng)海上交通運(yùn)輸安全,運(yùn)用灰色系統(tǒng)理論中傳統(tǒng)的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)理論和加權(quán)灰色關(guān)聯(lián)原理,分別對(duì)遼寧、天津和寧波水域2007—2013年的船舶交通事故進(jìn)行分析,尋求船舶交通事故的主要致因。將傳統(tǒng)灰色關(guān)聯(lián)結(jié)果與加權(quán)灰色關(guān)聯(lián)結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比,驗(yàn)證加權(quán)灰色關(guān)聯(lián)理論具有更好的準(zhǔn)確性和層次性。建立3處水域船舶交通事故總數(shù)的預(yù)測(cè)模型,對(duì)不同水域未來(lái)的交通形勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè);將預(yù)測(cè)模型結(jié)果與實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)相比較,得到其預(yù)測(cè)精度,以期獲得該預(yù)測(cè)模型短期預(yù)測(cè)精度的大致范圍,從而為海上交通事故的預(yù)防提供指導(dǎo)和借鑒。
[Abstract]:In order to enhance the safety of maritime transportation, the ship traffic accidents in Liaoning, Tianjin and Ningbo waters from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed by using the traditional grey relation theory and weighted grey correlation theory in the grey system theory. To seek the main causes of ship traffic accidents. By comparing the traditional grey correlation results with the weighted grey correlation results, it is proved that the weighted grey correlation theory is more accurate and hierarchical. The prediction model of the total number of ship traffic accidents in three water areas is established to predict the traffic situation in different water areas in the future. By comparing the results of the prediction model with the actual data, the prediction accuracy is obtained, in order to obtain the approximate range of the short-term prediction accuracy of the prediction model, thus providing guidance and reference for the prevention of maritime traffic accidents.
【作者單位】： 大連海事大學(xué)航海學(xué)院;國(guó)家海洋局東海分局;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專(zhuān)項(xiàng)資金(3132015007) 遼寧省自然科學(xué)基金(2014025008) 馬六甲和新加坡海峽超大型船舶航行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析及對(duì)策研究項(xiàng)目(01831508) 東海至宮古海峽航海保障研究項(xiàng)目(80716004)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U698.6

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1 羅曉利;李海燕;;基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)理論的空管人誤分類(lèi)分析[J];中國(guó)民航大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2009年04期

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