發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-07 19:59

【摘要】：煤炭資源的廣泛利用為我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)做出巨大貢獻(xiàn)。但是,在煤炭安全高效生產(chǎn)方面,我國(guó)與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家相比差距巨大。安全生產(chǎn)水平不高、效率低下嚴(yán)重制約了我國(guó)煤礦生產(chǎn)物流的高效正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn),進(jìn)而制約了煤炭生產(chǎn)行業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,因此,在該領(lǐng)域迫切需要結(jié)合煤礦生產(chǎn)物流的多屬性、環(huán)境隨時(shí)間變化、模糊的復(fù)雜性工藝流程等典型時(shí)序動(dòng)態(tài)特征,開展安全與效率作用機(jī)理研究。 本文從安全與效率協(xié)同發(fā)展角度對(duì)煤礦生產(chǎn)物流系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行深入研究,借助協(xié)整和系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)理論,對(duì)煤礦生產(chǎn)物流系統(tǒng)安全與效率作用機(jī)理進(jìn)行研究。包括以下3部分內(nèi)容： 首先,從宏觀視角分析系統(tǒng)安全與效率的協(xié)整關(guān)系。主要包括：構(gòu)建協(xié)整模型以檢驗(yàn)安全與效率長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系；構(gòu)建向量誤差模型以檢驗(yàn)安全與效率序列間短期波動(dòng)情況；構(gòu)建Granger檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ鸵苑治霭踩c效率的因果關(guān)系,為作用機(jī)理模型構(gòu)建以及實(shí)證提供依據(jù)。 其次,從微觀視角構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)安全與效率作用機(jī)理模型。主要包括：基于安全與效率的宏觀因果關(guān)系,采用案例分析方法篩選安全與效率關(guān)鍵影響因子,結(jié)合我國(guó)煤礦安全生產(chǎn)的規(guī)律,構(gòu)建煤礦生產(chǎn)物流系統(tǒng)安全與效率影響因子體系；從影響因子角度運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)構(gòu)建安全與效率的作用機(jī)理模型,為后續(xù)對(duì)煤礦生產(chǎn)物流系統(tǒng)安全與效率作用機(jī)理實(shí)證研究提供可靠的模型。 最后,開展系統(tǒng)安全與效率作用機(jī)理的實(shí)證研究。主要包括：從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度出發(fā),仿真觀測(cè)安全資金投入與投入產(chǎn)出能力的演化過程,預(yù)測(cè)煤礦生產(chǎn)物流系統(tǒng)安全生產(chǎn)水平的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)；從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)角度考慮,以安全投入為核心完善煤礦生產(chǎn)物流系統(tǒng)安全與效率長(zhǎng)效協(xié)同機(jī)制。 綜上所述,本文基于協(xié)整理論和系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)進(jìn)行煤礦生產(chǎn)物流安全與效率作用機(jī)理的研究,·對(duì)安全高效開發(fā)我國(guó)煤炭資源、實(shí)現(xiàn)煤炭生產(chǎn)從靜態(tài)管理向動(dòng)態(tài)管理轉(zhuǎn)變、有效提高我國(guó)煤礦安全生產(chǎn)水平具有重要的科學(xué)研究?jī)r(jià)值和實(shí)踐應(yīng)用價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:The extensive utilization of coal resources has made great contribution to the national economic construction of our country. However, in the coal safety and efficient production, compared with the developed countries, China has a huge gap. The low level of production safety and low efficiency seriously restrict the efficient and normal operation of the coal production logistics in China, and then restrict the sustainable development of the coal production industry. Therefore, it is urgent to combine the multiple attributes of the coal production logistics in this field. In order to study the mechanism of safety and efficiency, environment changes with time, fuzzy complex process flow and other typical time-series dynamic characteristics are carried out. Based on the theory of cointegration and system dynamics, the mechanism of safety and efficiency of coal mine production logistics system is studied in this paper. It includes the following three parts: firstly, the cointegration relationship between system security and efficiency is analyzed from a macro perspective. It mainly includes: constructing cointegration model to test the long-term equilibrium relationship between security and efficiency, constructing vector error model to test the short-term fluctuation between safety and efficiency series, and constructing vector error model to test the short-term fluctuation between safety and efficiency. The Granger test model is constructed to analyze the causal relationship between safety and efficiency, and to provide the basis for the construction of the mechanism model and empirical evidence. Secondly, the mechanism model of system security and efficiency is built from the micro perspective. It mainly includes: based on the macro causality of safety and efficiency, adopting the case analysis method to screen the key factors of safety and efficiency, combining with the rule of coal mine safety production in our country. Constructing the safety and efficiency influencing factor system of coal mine production logistics system; The mechanism model of safety and efficiency is constructed by using system dynamics from the perspective of influencing factors, which provides a reliable model for further empirical research on the mechanism of safety and efficiency in coal mine production logistics system. Finally, an empirical study on the mechanism of system safety and efficiency is carried out. The main contents are as follows: from the economic point of view, the evolution process of input and input-output ability of safety funds is simulated and observed, and the development trend of safety production level of coal mine production logistics system is forecasted. In view of the long term, the safety and efficiency coordination mechanism of coal mine production logistics system is improved with safety input as the core. To sum up, based on cointegration theory and system dynamics, this paper studies the mechanism of safety and efficiency of coal production logistics, develops coal resources safely and efficiently, and realizes the transformation of coal production from static management to dynamic management. It has important scientific research value and practical application value to improve coal mine safety production level effectively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TD7;F426.21;F252

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