福島核事故典型氣載放射性核素的彌散及輻射劑量研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-07 16:38
【摘要】：2011年3月11日，日本本州島仙臺(tái)港以東約130km處海底發(fā)生了9.0級(jí)大地震，該地震引發(fā)的巨大海嘯，導(dǎo)致福島第一核電站機(jī)組嚴(yán)重受損以及大規(guī)模放射性物質(zhì)的釋放。事故的發(fā)生再次引起了民眾和科研人員對(duì)于事故應(yīng)急和輻射安全的普遍關(guān)注。 本文應(yīng)用MVK模型驗(yàn)證工具對(duì)ARTM、AERMOD和CALPUFF大氣擴(kuò)散模式進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)驗(yàn)證，結(jié)果表明：三種模型都基本能夠達(dá)到推薦模型標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，ARTM模型和CALPUFF模型在0～3km距離段內(nèi)有低估趨勢(shì)，AERMOD模型有高估趨勢(shì)，CALPUFF模型在模擬區(qū)域大于50km的模擬預(yù)測(cè)方面具有一定的優(yōu)越性。 本文應(yīng)用CALPUFF大氣擴(kuò)散模式模擬了以福島第一核電站為中心160km160km的區(qū)域，事故后30天~(131)I的濃度分布和沉積量分布情況并使用等效衰減法對(duì)計(jì)算結(jié)果進(jìn)行了放射性衰變修正。事故期間空氣濃度峰值出現(xiàn)在事故發(fā)生后的第5天第13時(shí)(79,81)網(wǎng)格，空氣濃度峰值為6.7010~6Bq/m~3，地面沉積量為1.8110~5Bq/m~2，釋放源西北方向?yàn)槲廴咀顕?yán)重的陸域方向。 通過(guò)系統(tǒng)分析法對(duì)研究區(qū)域的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)化，用一系列微分動(dòng)力學(xué)方程描述核素的生態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移機(jī)制，編寫程序?qū)崿F(xiàn)核素的轉(zhuǎn)移過(guò)程，確定了受照的關(guān)鍵人群、關(guān)鍵途徑和關(guān)鍵器官，，研究區(qū)域內(nèi)的四個(gè)居民點(diǎn)中位于源西北方位的葛尾村公眾的甲狀腺當(dāng)量劑量最大。 鑒于福島核事故早期全廠斷電，堆芯受損情況不明，不能通過(guò)堆芯的運(yùn)行參數(shù)和損壞程度有效的估計(jì)源項(xiàng)，本文通過(guò)將混合遺傳算法與煙團(tuán)擴(kuò)散模式的耦合，對(duì)采用環(huán)境監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)反演核事故源項(xiàng)研究進(jìn)行了初步探索，實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)源項(xiàng)釋放率、位置和高度的快速估計(jì)。遺傳算法-單純形法與遺傳算法-模式搜索法、遺傳算法和單純形法等三種算法的比較結(jié)果表明：遺傳算法-單純形法結(jié)合了遺傳算法和單純形法兩種算法的優(yōu)勢(shì)，也彌補(bǔ)了各自的缺陷，其反算值可以與期望值較精確符合、通用性強(qiáng)、計(jì)算花費(fèi)較少，能夠適用于核事故源項(xiàng)的快速估計(jì)。
[Abstract]:On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck the sea floor about 130km east of Sendai Port, Honshu Island, Japan. The earthquake triggered a huge tsunami that caused serious damage to the units of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station and the release of large-scale radioactive material. The accident has once again aroused widespread concern for emergency and radiation safety among people and researchers. In this paper, MVK model verification tool is used to verify the atmospheric diffusion models of ARTM,AERMOD and CALPUFF. The results show that the three models can basically reach the recommended model standard, and the ARTM model and the CALPUFF model tend to be underestimated in the range of 0~3km. The AERMOD model tends to be overestimated, and the CALPUFF model has some advantages in the simulation prediction of the simulation region larger than that of the 50km model. In this paper, the CALPUFF atmospheric diffusion model is used to simulate the distribution of ~ (131) I concentration and deposition in the area with Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station as the center. The radioactive decay correction is carried out by using the equivalent attenuation method. During the accident, the peak of air concentration appeared at 13:00 on the fifth day after the accident, the peak of air concentration was 6.7010 ~ 6Bq / m ~ (-1), the amount of surface deposition was 1.81 ~ 10 ~ 5Bq / m ~ (2), and the northwestern direction of the release source was the most polluted land area. The ecological transfer mechanism of nuclides is described by a series of differential dynamics equations, and the process of radionuclide transfer is realized by a program. Among the four residential areas in the study area, the thyroid equivalent dose of the public in Gewei Village, located in the northwest of the source, was the largest. In view of the power failure of the whole plant in the early stage of the Fukushima nuclear accident, the damage of the reactor core is unknown, and the effective source term of the operation parameters and damage degree of the reactor core can not be estimated, the hybrid genetic algorithm is coupled with the smoke diffusion model in this paper. A preliminary study on the inversion of source term of nuclear accident using environmental monitoring data is carried out, and the fast estimation of release rate, location and height of source term is realized. The comparison of genetic algorithm-simplex method and genetic algorithm-pattern search method, genetic algorithm and simplex method shows that genetic algorithm-simplex method combines the advantages of genetic algorithm and simplex algorithm. It can be used to estimate the source term of a nuclear accident because it is more accurate than the expected value and has the advantages of high generality and less calculation cost.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：TL73
本文編號(hào)：2403885
[Abstract]:On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck the sea floor about 130km east of Sendai Port, Honshu Island, Japan. The earthquake triggered a huge tsunami that caused serious damage to the units of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station and the release of large-scale radioactive material. The accident has once again aroused widespread concern for emergency and radiation safety among people and researchers. In this paper, MVK model verification tool is used to verify the atmospheric diffusion models of ARTM,AERMOD and CALPUFF. The results show that the three models can basically reach the recommended model standard, and the ARTM model and the CALPUFF model tend to be underestimated in the range of 0~3km. The AERMOD model tends to be overestimated, and the CALPUFF model has some advantages in the simulation prediction of the simulation region larger than that of the 50km model. In this paper, the CALPUFF atmospheric diffusion model is used to simulate the distribution of ~ (131) I concentration and deposition in the area with Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station as the center. The radioactive decay correction is carried out by using the equivalent attenuation method. During the accident, the peak of air concentration appeared at 13:00 on the fifth day after the accident, the peak of air concentration was 6.7010 ~ 6Bq / m ~ (-1), the amount of surface deposition was 1.81 ~ 10 ~ 5Bq / m ~ (2), and the northwestern direction of the release source was the most polluted land area. The ecological transfer mechanism of nuclides is described by a series of differential dynamics equations, and the process of radionuclide transfer is realized by a program. Among the four residential areas in the study area, the thyroid equivalent dose of the public in Gewei Village, located in the northwest of the source, was the largest. In view of the power failure of the whole plant in the early stage of the Fukushima nuclear accident, the damage of the reactor core is unknown, and the effective source term of the operation parameters and damage degree of the reactor core can not be estimated, the hybrid genetic algorithm is coupled with the smoke diffusion model in this paper. A preliminary study on the inversion of source term of nuclear accident using environmental monitoring data is carried out, and the fast estimation of release rate, location and height of source term is realized. The comparison of genetic algorithm-simplex method and genetic algorithm-pattern search method, genetic algorithm and simplex method shows that genetic algorithm-simplex method combines the advantages of genetic algorithm and simplex algorithm. It can be used to estimate the source term of a nuclear accident because it is more accurate than the expected value and has the advantages of high generality and less calculation cost.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：TL73
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