【摘要】：為了更加系統(tǒng)全面地分析民機著陸沖出跑道風(fēng)險,采用Bow-tie模型進行研究。在著陸沖出跑道原因辨識方面,結(jié)合SHEL模型和Reason模型對這些事故的原因進行了具體分析,得到了著陸沖出跑道的形成機理,最終將著陸沖出跑道影響因素歸納為機組技能失誤、機組違反程序或標準、機組喪失情景意識、機組資源管理失效、航空器機械故障、不利天氣條件影響、跑道濕滑或污染、跑道設(shè)計缺陷等,并基于上述分析結(jié)果繪制航空器著陸沖出跑道Bow-tie圖,對著陸沖出跑道的原因和后果以及相應(yīng)的預(yù)防和控制措施進行了描述。最后對著陸沖出跑道歷史數(shù)據(jù)進行統(tǒng)計,結(jié)果表明,機組因素和環(huán)境因素是導(dǎo)致著陸沖出跑道最主要的兩個原因,提出著陸沖出跑道防范的重點,從系統(tǒng)角度提出了民機著陸沖出跑道的風(fēng)險管理辦法。
[Abstract]:In order to analyze the risk of landing overrun of civil aircraft more systematically and comprehensively, Bow-tie model is used to study. In the aspect of the cause identification of landing overrun runway, combined with SHEL model and Reason model, the causes of these accidents are analyzed concretely, and the formation mechanism of landing overrun runway is obtained. Finally, the influencing factors of landing overrun runway are summed up as crew skill errors. Violation of procedures or standards, loss of situational awareness, failure of crew resource management, failure of aircraft machinery, adverse weather conditions, slippery or contaminated runways, defects in runway design, etc. Based on the above analysis results, the Bow-tie diagram of landing overrun runway is drawn, and the causes and consequences of landing overrun runway as well as the corresponding prevention and control measures are described. Finally, the historical data of landing overrun runway are statistically analyzed. The results show that the aircrew factors and environmental factors are the two most important factors leading to landing overrun runway, and the key points of landing overrun runway prevention are put forward. The risk management method of civil aircraft landing overrun runway is put forward from the point of view of system.
【作者單位】： 中國民航大學(xué)民航安全科學(xué)研究所;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(61304207) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費專項資金資助項目(ZXH2012D001)
【分類號】：V323;V328

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