【摘要】：長江作為我國重要的內(nèi)河航道,具有運輸成本低、運載量大的特點,與其他運輸方式相比具有獨特的優(yōu)勢。隨著國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展、工農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)及人民生活水平的不斷提高,我國對石油、液化石油氣及化學(xué)品原料等危險品的需求日益增長。而與普通貨物相比,危險品具有易燃、爆炸、腐蝕、毒害及放射性等危害特性,對安全性要求高,在運輸、裝卸過程中稍有不慎,便有可能造成人員傷亡、財產(chǎn)損失和環(huán)境污染等嚴(yán)重后果,隨著長江水上危險品運輸?shù)目焖侔l(fā)展,發(fā)生危險品事故的風(fēng)險或危險性也在不斷增大,在“可持續(xù)發(fā)展”的指導(dǎo)思想下,長江危險品水上運輸?shù)陌踩珕栴}備受社會各界關(guān)注。因而,對長江危險品水上運輸?shù)陌踩M(jìn)行評價研究具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文以長江危險品水上運輸評價為研究對象,通過分析長江危險品水上運輸?shù)牡陌l(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,并分析研究了長江危險品水上運輸安全的影響要素。同時選取從人的因素、船的因素、環(huán)境因素、貨物本身以及管理因素五個層面構(gòu)建長江危險品水上運輸安全評價指標(biāo)體系,并根據(jù)相應(yīng)規(guī)范及研究成果,給定了評價等級,同時選擇組合權(quán)重計算方法來確定指標(biāo)權(quán)重。 根據(jù)集對分析方法原理,以及長江危險品水上運輸安全的評價涉及諸多不確定因素,運用集對分析方法來對長江危險品水上運輸安全系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行表達(dá)和刻畫,建立長江危險品水上運輸安全集對評價模型。引入安全度概念建立長江危險品水上運輸安全評價指標(biāo)的安全度等級,根據(jù)長江水上危險品運輸?shù)膶嶋H情況確定其安全度評價等級,即完成對長江危險品水上運輸安全的集對綜合評價。 以蕪湖海事局管轄區(qū)域為例,運用建立的長江危險品水上運輸安全集對綜合評價模型計算出蕪湖海事局水上危險品運輸?shù)穆?lián)系數(shù)主值為0.284,對應(yīng)的蕪湖海事局水上危險品運輸安全度評價處于較安全等級,說明蕪湖海事局危險品水上運輸?shù)陌踩幱谙鄬Π踩乃健?通過上述研究,提出了一些提高長江危險品水上運輸安全的對策,以期為長江危險品水上運輸實現(xiàn)安全、綠色、可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供參考,論文采用的集對分析方法可在水上交通中推廣應(yīng)用,有一定的價值。
[Abstract]:As an important inland waterway in China, the Yangtze River has the characteristics of low transportation cost and large transportation capacity. With the rapid development of national economy and the continuous improvement of industrial and agricultural production and people's living standard, the demand for dangerous goods such as petroleum, liquefied petroleum gas and chemical raw materials in China is increasing day by day. Compared with ordinary goods, dangerous goods have the characteristics of flammability, explosion, corrosion, poison and radioactivity, and have high requirements for safety. A little carelessness in the course of transportation and loading and unloading may result in casualties. With the rapid development of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, the risk or risk of dangerous goods accidents is also increasing. Under the guiding ideology of "sustainable development", The safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River has been concerned by all walks of life. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to evaluate the safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River. This paper takes the evaluation of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River as the research object, analyzes the present situation of the development of the transportation of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River, and analyzes the factors that affect the safety of the transportation of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River. At the same time, from five aspects of human factors, ship factors, environmental factors, cargo itself and management factors, the evaluation index system of dangerous goods transportation safety on the Yangtze River is constructed, and according to the corresponding norms and research results, the evaluation grade is given. At the same time, select the combination weight calculation method to determine the index weight. According to the principle of set pair analysis method and the uncertain factors involved in the evaluation of the safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, this paper uses the set pair analysis method to express and depict the safety system of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River. A safety set pair evaluation model of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River was established. The concept of safety degree is introduced to establish the safety grade of the safety evaluation index of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, and according to the actual situation of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, the safety degree evaluation grade is determined. That is, the completion of the Yangtze River dangerous goods on the water transport safety set pair comprehensive evaluation. Taking the area under the jurisdiction of Wuhu Marine Bureau as an example, the main value of the connection number of the dangerous goods transportation on the water of Wuhu Marine Bureau is 0.284, which is calculated by using the comprehensive evaluation model of the safety set pairs of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River. The corresponding safety evaluation of dangerous goods transportation on water in Wuhu Marine Bureau is relatively safe, which indicates that the safety of dangerous goods transportation on water in Wuhu Marine Bureau is at a relatively safe level. Through the above research, some countermeasures are put forward to improve the safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, in order to provide a reference for the safety, green and sustainable development of the transport of dangerous goods on the Yangtze River. The set pair analysis method adopted in this paper can be popularized and applied in water transportation and has certain value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U698

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