【摘要】：隨著高鐵的飛速發(fā)展,讓人們的出行越來越便捷,為國家的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展增添了新的活力。軌道交通作為國家的經(jīng)濟大動脈,其能否安全運營直接關(guān)系著人民的財產(chǎn)生命安全。因為鐵路具有性能安全、可靠、高效、運輸距離長、運輸成本低并且運輸能力強、環(huán)保、在大多惡劣天氣下均能進行運輸作業(yè)等諸多無與倫比優(yōu)勢,都是公路、海運、航空無法比擬的,所以鐵路是陸上的主要運力。 但是,由于我國的高鐵建成時間較短、采用的新技術(shù)、新設(shè)備較多,再加之我國的高鐵覆蓋范圍廣等諸多因素使得高鐵在建設(shè)和運營上面臨著諸多風(fēng)險問題。因此,為了保障高鐵的安全運營,鐵路部門將系統(tǒng)的安全理論引入到了高鐵的管理中并大力推行針對高鐵的風(fēng)險管理體系,加大對鐵路風(fēng)險的管控力度,從而降低事故發(fā)生的可能性,為高鐵的安全開行保駕護航。 本文主要針對高鐵中存在的風(fēng)險隱患,建立適當(dāng)?shù)脑u價指標(biāo)體系,并采用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法建立模型。從而利用建立的模型對高鐵進行風(fēng)險評價并得出相應(yīng)的結(jié)論和整改建議。 本文首先針對高鐵上存在的風(fēng)險隱患,采用故障樹的方法識別出影響高鐵安全運營的主要因素,并建立相應(yīng)的評價指標(biāo)體系。然后采用模糊算法量化出20條樣本鐵路的數(shù)據(jù),再采用加權(quán)求和法降低數(shù)據(jù)的主觀性。另外為了簡化網(wǎng)絡(luò)的輸入,提高了網(wǎng)絡(luò)的收斂速率。因此,當(dāng)輸入數(shù)據(jù)的維數(shù)較大時,采用主成分分析法對歸一化后的分?jǐn)?shù)進行降維處理,從而簡化BP網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu),提高了訓(xùn)練速率。 其次,的指標(biāo)體系進行降維處理后,將得到的前15條鐵路的的分?jǐn)?shù)作為BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的訓(xùn)練數(shù)據(jù),后5條鐵路的分?jǐn)?shù)作為BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的測試數(shù)據(jù)。測試結(jié)果表明該風(fēng)險評價模型的預(yù)測精度達(dá)到了95%,因此該高鐵風(fēng)險評價模型是有效的。 最后,對京滬高鐵同時采用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型評價和模糊評價法進行評價,分別得出京滬高鐵的相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險狀況,并對兩種評價法進行了分析、比較。此外,還根據(jù)主成分分析法中主成分公式的系數(shù)分析了影響高鐵安全的主要指標(biāo)因素。進而,可以將有限的人力物力投入到對這些主要因素的管控和處理上,將好鋼用在刀刃上,從而對高鐵的安全管理更加的有的放矢。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of high-speed rail, people travel more and more convenient, adding new vitality to the country's economic development. As the national economic artery, whether rail transit can operate safely or not is directly related to the safety of people's property. Because the railway has many unparalleled advantages, such as safety, reliability, high efficiency, long transportation distance, low transportation cost, strong transportation capacity, environmental protection, and the ability to carry out transportation operations in most bad weather, all of them are roads, sea transportation, etc. Aviation is incomparable, so rail is the main onshore capacity. However, due to the short construction time of high-speed railway in China, the new technology and equipment, and the wide coverage of high-speed rail in China, the construction and operation of high-speed rail are facing a lot of risk problems. Therefore, in order to ensure the safe operation of the high-speed railway, the railway department has introduced the safety theory of the system into the management of the high-speed railway and vigorously promoted the risk management system for the high-speed railway, and increased the control of railway risks. Thus reducing the possibility of accidents, for the safety of high-speed rail escort. In this paper, an appropriate evaluation index system is established for the hidden risks in high-speed rail, and the BP neural network method is used to establish the model. The model is used to evaluate the risk of high-speed rail, and the corresponding conclusions and corrective suggestions are obtained. In this paper, the main factors affecting the safety operation of high-speed railway are identified by fault tree method, and the corresponding evaluation index system is established. Then the fuzzy algorithm is used to quantify the data of 20 sample railways, and the weighted summation method is used to reduce the subjectivity of the data. In addition, in order to simplify the input of the network, the convergence rate of the network is improved. Therefore, when the dimension of the input data is large, the normalized fraction is reduced by principal component analysis, which simplifies the BP network structure and improves the training rate. Secondly, after dimensionality reduction, the scores of the first 15 railways are taken as the training data of the BP neural network, and the scores of the last 5 railways are taken as the test data of the BP neural network. The test results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is 95%, so the model is effective. Finally, the BP neural network model and fuzzy evaluation method are used to evaluate the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, and the corresponding risk status of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is obtained, and the two evaluation methods are analyzed and compared. In addition, according to the coefficient of principal component formula in principal component analysis, the main index factors affecting the safety of high iron are analyzed. Furthermore, the limited manpower and material resources can be put into the management and treatment of these main factors, and the good steel can be used on the blade, thus the safety management of high-speed railway can be more targeted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U238;U298

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