【摘要】：概率閾值法存在定位分支生成時(shí)間點(diǎn)不精確,建立的離散動態(tài)事件樹具有較大時(shí)間不確定性等問題。針對概率閾值法存在的不足提出相應(yīng)的改進(jìn)措施——精確概率閾值法。通過分析動態(tài)水箱發(fā)現(xiàn):在概率閾值為0.99的條件下,精確概率閾值法的總節(jié)點(diǎn)數(shù)比概率閾值法少25%,事故節(jié)點(diǎn)數(shù)僅少2.7%,計(jì)算時(shí)間縮短了37.7%,證明精確概率閾值法對事故節(jié)點(diǎn)的分析效率更高;精確概率閾值法得到的總事故概率比概率閾值法小33.6%,對于水箱干涸事故其留給操作人員采取措施干預(yù)事故發(fā)展的時(shí)間窗口更長;并且精確概率閾值法建立的離散動態(tài)事件樹顯示出更多的演化路徑,反映了更多的事故信息,利于全面掌握動態(tài)水箱的事故演化過程,更適合研究系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行動態(tài)特性。
[Abstract]:The probabilistic threshold method has some problems such as the imprecision of the time points generated by the location branches and the large time uncertainty of the established discrete dynamic event tree. Aiming at the shortcomings of probabilistic threshold method, this paper puts forward the corresponding improvement measure-precise probabilistic threshold method. By analyzing the dynamic water tank, it is found that under the condition of probability threshold of 0.99, the total number of nodes in the accurate probability threshold method is 25 less than that of the probability threshold method, the number of accident nodes is only 2.7 less, and the calculation time is shortened by 37.7%. It is proved that the accurate probability threshold method is more efficient for the analysis of accident nodes. The probability of the total accident obtained by the accurate probability threshold method is 33.6 less than that by the probability threshold method, and the time window left to the operator to take measures to intervene in the development of the accident is longer for the dry water tank accident. And the discrete dynamic event tree established by the accurate probability threshold method shows more evolution paths and reflects more accident information, which is helpful to master the accident evolution process of the dynamic water tank and is more suitable for studying the dynamic characteristics of the system.
【作者單位】： 海軍工程大學(xué)核能科學(xué)與工程系;南昌航空大學(xué)材料科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：核反應(yīng)堆系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)技術(shù)國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室基金資助項(xiàng)目(HT-JXYY-02-2014002)
【分類號】：TL364
，

本文編號：2362225