【摘要】：為提高核事故早期輻射場劑量率評估的準(zhǔn)確性和可靠度,提出一種基于數(shù)據(jù)同化理論的評價(jià)方法。根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)同化理論,定義輻射場狀態(tài)空間,建立了適合輻射場劑量率預(yù)測模型的狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移和誤差協(xié)方差矩陣。利用同化算法,綜合考慮核事故輻射場劑量率預(yù)測模型與實(shí)測數(shù)據(jù),實(shí)現(xiàn)輻射場劑量率的最優(yōu)化表達(dá)。在Matlab軟件平臺(tái)上,運(yùn)用數(shù)值模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)和福島實(shí)測數(shù)據(jù),對該方法進(jìn)行了雙重驗(yàn)證。實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,數(shù)值模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)條件下,當(dāng)放射性物質(zhì)空氣釋放率高估1個(gè)數(shù)量級(jí)時(shí),同化后,輻射場劑量率相對均方根誤差從1個(gè)數(shù)量級(jí)降低至50%左右。利用福島核事故監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)對同化系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,同化后的結(jié)果與實(shí)際測量結(jié)果相近,相對均方根誤差在20%左右。以上結(jié)果表明,通過合理運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)同化方法,可有效減小輻射場劑量率預(yù)測的不確定度。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of dose rate assessment of radiation field in the early stage of nuclear accident, an evaluation method based on data assimilation theory is proposed. According to the theory of data assimilation, the state space of radiation field is defined, and the state transfer and error covariance matrix suitable for dose rate prediction model of radiation field are established. The optimal expression of radiation field dose rate is realized by using assimilation algorithm, considering the dose rate prediction model of nuclear accident radiation field and the measured data. On the platform of Matlab software, the method is verified by using numerical simulation experiment and the measured data of Fukushima. The experimental results show that when the air release rate of radioactive material is overestimated by one order of magnitude, the relative RMS error of radiation field dose rate decreases from 1 order of magnitude to about 50% after assimilation. The assimilation system is verified by the data of Fukushima nuclear accident monitoring. The result of assimilation is similar to that of the actual measurement, and the relative root mean square error is about 20%. The above results show that the uncertainty of dose rate prediction of radiation field can be effectively reduced by using the data assimilation method reasonably.
【作者單位】： 防化學(xué)院核防護(hù)系;
【分類號(hào)】：TL732

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