化工災害應急演練與控制關(guān)鍵技術(shù)研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-29 16:28
【摘要】：災害應急演練是當今應對各種災害的有效方法。運用計算機技術(shù)輔助應急演練不但可以幫助演練參與者熟悉應急預案、提高團隊合作能力,還可以幫助決策者檢驗應急預案的制定是否合理。計算機輔助應急演練系統(tǒng)的研究涉及多學科綜合交叉。本文對計算機輔助應急演練系統(tǒng)土要關(guān)鍵技術(shù)進行研究,具體工作如下： 1、根據(jù)經(jīng)典的化工類災害描述公式,提出了化工三大類災害場的概念及災害場的計算方法,并通過池火災溫度場算法加以了驗證；基于災害場算法建立了災害仿真Agent系統(tǒng),設計了各類Agent的核心結(jié)構(gòu)并描述了Agent之間的聯(lián)系(為演練腳本系統(tǒng)提供災害仿真腳本),在系統(tǒng)層面解決了災害場的仿真結(jié)構(gòu)設計與實現(xiàn)問題；研究了災害的三維渲染思路和優(yōu)化方法,針對不同的災害給出了相關(guān)的渲染參數(shù)選擇方法,解決了災害場的三維渲染問題。 2、根據(jù)化工災害蔓延的復雜性特點,基于復雜網(wǎng)絡理論開展化工多災害演化過程研究,建立了多災害網(wǎng)絡模型,探索了化工多災害觸發(fā)與傳播過程方法,提出了運用災害信息熵描述多災害之間的綜合影響模型并給出具體計算方法。綜合影響算法還考慮了災害與災害之問的遮擋因素,并設計了相關(guān)的參數(shù)修正方法。在此基礎上基于復雜網(wǎng)絡的節(jié)點災害擾動與傳播普適性動力學模型,構(gòu)建了化工廠潛在災害觸發(fā)與多災害動態(tài)演化過程的仿真計算模型。 3、重點介紹演練模糊專家系統(tǒng)及推理機的設計方法和應用效果。運用模糊粗糙集理論研究專家系統(tǒng)推理規(guī)則的約簡方法,進而對模糊—精確決策表進行規(guī)制提取；運用模糊粗糙集的熵匹配算法,構(gòu)造出應急預案推演過程中的規(guī)則前件匹配方法。設計出的模糊混合推理機實現(xiàn)了不確定性問題的快速、有效推理。 4、針對應急救援演練控制的復雜性和難以量化問題,為實現(xiàn)多人參演系統(tǒng)的有效控制,基于Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP),建立一種模糊粗糙集知識測度的綜合建模方法。首先分析了粗糙集各類知識測度的相關(guān)概念、相互聯(lián)系和各自的特點。其次用AHP方法建立應急演練各測度的綜合評判模型。最后還設計了演練過程控制算法和基于本文知識綜合測度方法形成的核心控制流程,并給出了模糊控制規(guī)則的選取和沖突消解算法。 5、針對應急演練過程與結(jié)果評價的多層次性和主客觀指標混合性,提出了一種基于層次熵權(quán)法和AHP方法的混合評價方法。首先在傳統(tǒng)的熵權(quán)分析方法的基礎上建立了分層的熵權(quán)分析方法；其次研究主客觀混合評價方法,提出了混合因子的概念并給出了計算方法。研究成果既解決了熵權(quán)分析評價的單一性問題,同時也解決了AHP方法對于權(quán)值設置的主觀性偏離問題,成功的實現(xiàn)了演練的有效評價。 6、運用模塊化方法開發(fā)了應急演練系統(tǒng)及其核心模塊,對模塊和系統(tǒng)的設計思路和架構(gòu)進行描述。運用面向?qū)ο笤O計思想設計了腳本系統(tǒng)模塊,描述了模塊的應用流程,在此之上實現(xiàn)了演練Agent系統(tǒng)運行與調(diào)度。通過三維引擎的設計與實現(xiàn)描述和三維場景組態(tài)工具的描述,完整的展示了一個高效實用的應急演練三維核心引擎的整體方案。
[Abstract]:Disaster emergency drill is an effective method to deal with various disasters. The application of computer technology assistant emergency drill not only can help the drilling participants become familiar with the emergency plan, improve the team's cooperation ability, but also help the decision-maker to check whether the emergency plan is reasonable. The research of computer-aided emergency drill system involves multi-disciplinary integration. In this paper, the key technology of computer-aided emergency drill system soil is studied, and the concrete work is as follows: 1. According to the classical chemical disaster description formula, the concept and the disaster field of the third class disaster field of chemical engineering are put forward. The method is verified by a pool fire temperature field algorithm, a disaster simulation agent system is established based on the disaster field algorithm, the core structure of each agent is designed, In this paper, the simulation structure design and implementation of the disaster field are solved at the system level, the three-dimensional rendering idea and optimization method of the disaster are studied, the related rendering parameters selection method is given for different disasters, and the three-dimensional rendering of the disaster field is solved. 2. According to the complexity of the spread of chemical disasters, the multi-hazard network model was established based on the complex network theory and the multi-hazard network model was established, and the triggering and transmission of chemical multi-hazard was explored. In this paper, a comprehensive effect model based on disaster information entropy is proposed and presented. The comprehensive influence algorithm also takes into account the shielding factor of disaster and disaster, and designs the relevant parameters. On this basis, based on the node disaster disturbance and the propagation universal dynamic model of the complex network, the simulation of the potential disaster triggering and multi-hazard dynamic evolution process of the chemical plant is constructed. The real calculation model. 3. Emphasis will be given on the practice of fuzzy expert system and the setting of the simulation system. Based on fuzzy rough set theory, this paper studies the reduction method of expert system reasoning rule, and then applies fuzzy rough set entropy matching algorithm to construct the emergency plan deduction process. The pre-rule matching method. The design of the fuzzy hybrid method realizes the uncertainty problem. Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a fuzzy rough set based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is proposed. The comprehensive modeling method of knowledge measure is introduced, and the related concepts of various knowledge measures in rough sets are analyzed first. Secondly, use the AHP method to establish the emergency performance. Finally, the control algorithm of drill process and the core control flow formed on the basis of this method are also designed, and the fuzzy control rule is also given. According to the multi-level of the emergency drill process and the result evaluation and the mixture of subjective and objective indexes, a hierarchical entropy weight is put forward. Firstly, a layered entropy weight analysis method is established on the basis of traditional entropy weight analysis method; secondly, the main objective mixed evaluation method is studied, and the mixed evaluation method is proposed. The concept of the combining factor and the calculation method are given. The research results not only solve the singularity problem of the entropy weight analysis evaluation, but also solve the subjectivity deviation problem of the AHP method on the right value setting. and 6, the emergency drill system and its core module are developed by using the modularized method, The design idea and architecture of the module and the system are described. The script system module is designed by using the object-oriented design idea, and the application flow of the module is described. The operation and scheduling of the drilling agent system is realized. Through the three-dimensional engine design and realization description and the description of the three-dimensional scene configuration tool, the complete display shows a high-efficiency reality.
【學位授予單位】：北京化工大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TQ086;TP391.9
本文編號：2298215
[Abstract]:Disaster emergency drill is an effective method to deal with various disasters. The application of computer technology assistant emergency drill not only can help the drilling participants become familiar with the emergency plan, improve the team's cooperation ability, but also help the decision-maker to check whether the emergency plan is reasonable. The research of computer-aided emergency drill system involves multi-disciplinary integration. In this paper, the key technology of computer-aided emergency drill system soil is studied, and the concrete work is as follows: 1. According to the classical chemical disaster description formula, the concept and the disaster field of the third class disaster field of chemical engineering are put forward. The method is verified by a pool fire temperature field algorithm, a disaster simulation agent system is established based on the disaster field algorithm, the core structure of each agent is designed, In this paper, the simulation structure design and implementation of the disaster field are solved at the system level, the three-dimensional rendering idea and optimization method of the disaster are studied, the related rendering parameters selection method is given for different disasters, and the three-dimensional rendering of the disaster field is solved. 2. According to the complexity of the spread of chemical disasters, the multi-hazard network model was established based on the complex network theory and the multi-hazard network model was established, and the triggering and transmission of chemical multi-hazard was explored. In this paper, a comprehensive effect model based on disaster information entropy is proposed and presented. The comprehensive influence algorithm also takes into account the shielding factor of disaster and disaster, and designs the relevant parameters. On this basis, based on the node disaster disturbance and the propagation universal dynamic model of the complex network, the simulation of the potential disaster triggering and multi-hazard dynamic evolution process of the chemical plant is constructed. The real calculation model. 3. Emphasis will be given on the practice of fuzzy expert system and the setting of the simulation system. Based on fuzzy rough set theory, this paper studies the reduction method of expert system reasoning rule, and then applies fuzzy rough set entropy matching algorithm to construct the emergency plan deduction process. The pre-rule matching method. The design of the fuzzy hybrid method realizes the uncertainty problem. Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a fuzzy rough set based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is proposed. The comprehensive modeling method of knowledge measure is introduced, and the related concepts of various knowledge measures in rough sets are analyzed first. Secondly, use the AHP method to establish the emergency performance. Finally, the control algorithm of drill process and the core control flow formed on the basis of this method are also designed, and the fuzzy control rule is also given. According to the multi-level of the emergency drill process and the result evaluation and the mixture of subjective and objective indexes, a hierarchical entropy weight is put forward. Firstly, a layered entropy weight analysis method is established on the basis of traditional entropy weight analysis method; secondly, the main objective mixed evaluation method is studied, and the mixed evaluation method is proposed. The concept of the combining factor and the calculation method are given. The research results not only solve the singularity problem of the entropy weight analysis evaluation, but also solve the subjectivity deviation problem of the AHP method on the right value setting. and 6, the emergency drill system and its core module are developed by using the modularized method, The design idea and architecture of the module and the system are described. The script system module is designed by using the object-oriented design idea, and the application flow of the module is described. The operation and scheduling of the drilling agent system is realized. Through the three-dimensional engine design and realization description and the description of the three-dimensional scene configuration tool, the complete display shows a high-efficiency reality.
【學位授予單位】：北京化工大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TQ086;TP391.9
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