【摘要】：災(zāi)害應(yīng)急演練是當(dāng)今應(yīng)對(duì)各種災(zāi)害的有效方法。運(yùn)用計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù)輔助應(yīng)急演練不但可以幫助演練參與者熟悉應(yīng)急預(yù)案、提高團(tuán)隊(duì)合作能力,還可以幫助決策者檢驗(yàn)應(yīng)急預(yù)案的制定是否合理。計(jì)算機(jī)輔助應(yīng)急演練系統(tǒng)的研究涉及多學(xué)科綜合交叉。本文對(duì)計(jì)算機(jī)輔助應(yīng)急演練系統(tǒng)土要關(guān)鍵技術(shù)進(jìn)行研究,具體工作如下： 1、根據(jù)經(jīng)典的化工類(lèi)災(zāi)害描述公式,提出了化工三大類(lèi)災(zāi)害場(chǎng)的概念及災(zāi)害場(chǎng)的計(jì)算方法,并通過(guò)池火災(zāi)溫度場(chǎng)算法加以了驗(yàn)證；基于災(zāi)害場(chǎng)算法建立了災(zāi)害仿真Agent系統(tǒng),設(shè)計(jì)了各類(lèi)Agent的核心結(jié)構(gòu)并描述了Agent之間的聯(lián)系(為演練腳本系統(tǒng)提供災(zāi)害仿真腳本),在系統(tǒng)層面解決了災(zāi)害場(chǎng)的仿真結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)與實(shí)現(xiàn)問(wèn)題；研究了災(zāi)害的三維渲染思路和優(yōu)化方法,針對(duì)不同的災(zāi)害給出了相關(guān)的渲染參數(shù)選擇方法,解決了災(zāi)害場(chǎng)的三維渲染問(wèn)題。 2、根據(jù)化工災(zāi)害蔓延的復(fù)雜性特點(diǎn),基于復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論開(kāi)展化工多災(zāi)害演化過(guò)程研究,建立了多災(zāi)害網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,探索了化工多災(zāi)害觸發(fā)與傳播過(guò)程方法,提出了運(yùn)用災(zāi)害信息熵描述多災(zāi)害之間的綜合影響模型并給出具體計(jì)算方法。綜合影響算法還考慮了災(zāi)害與災(zāi)害之問(wèn)的遮擋因素,并設(shè)計(jì)了相關(guān)的參數(shù)修正方法。在此基礎(chǔ)上基于復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)的節(jié)點(diǎn)災(zāi)害擾動(dòng)與傳播普適性動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,構(gòu)建了化工廠潛在災(zāi)害觸發(fā)與多災(zāi)害動(dòng)態(tài)演化過(guò)程的仿真計(jì)算模型。 3、重點(diǎn)介紹演練模糊專(zhuān)家系統(tǒng)及推理機(jī)的設(shè)計(jì)方法和應(yīng)用效果。運(yùn)用模糊粗糙集理論研究專(zhuān)家系統(tǒng)推理規(guī)則的約簡(jiǎn)方法,進(jìn)而對(duì)模糊—精確決策表進(jìn)行規(guī)制提��；運(yùn)用模糊粗糙集的熵匹配算法,構(gòu)造出應(yīng)急預(yù)案推演過(guò)程中的規(guī)則前件匹配方法。設(shè)計(jì)出的模糊混合推理機(jī)實(shí)現(xiàn)了不確定性問(wèn)題的快速、有效推理。 4、針對(duì)應(yīng)急救援演練控制的復(fù)雜性和難以量化問(wèn)題,為實(shí)現(xiàn)多人參演系統(tǒng)的有效控制,基于Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP),建立一種模糊粗糙集知識(shí)測(cè)度的綜合建模方法。首先分析了粗糙集各類(lèi)知識(shí)測(cè)度的相關(guān)概念、相互聯(lián)系和各自的特點(diǎn)。其次用AHP方法建立應(yīng)急演練各測(cè)度的綜合評(píng)判模型。最后還設(shè)計(jì)了演練過(guò)程控制算法和基于本文知識(shí)綜合測(cè)度方法形成的核心控制流程,并給出了模糊控制規(guī)則的選取和沖突消解算法。 5、針對(duì)應(yīng)急演練過(guò)程與結(jié)果評(píng)價(jià)的多層次性和主客觀指標(biāo)混合性,提出了一種基于層次熵權(quán)法和AHP方法的混合評(píng)價(jià)方法。首先在傳統(tǒng)的熵權(quán)分析方法的基礎(chǔ)上建立了分層的熵權(quán)分析方法；其次研究主客觀混合評(píng)價(jià)方法,提出了混合因子的概念并給出了計(jì)算方法。研究成果既解決了熵權(quán)分析評(píng)價(jià)的單一性問(wèn)題,同時(shí)也解決了AHP方法對(duì)于權(quán)值設(shè)置的主觀性偏離問(wèn)題,成功的實(shí)現(xiàn)了演練的有效評(píng)價(jià)。 6、運(yùn)用模塊化方法開(kāi)發(fā)了應(yīng)急演練系統(tǒng)及其核心模塊,對(duì)模塊和系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)思路和架構(gòu)進(jìn)行描述。運(yùn)用面向?qū)ο笤O(shè)計(jì)思想設(shè)計(jì)了腳本系統(tǒng)模塊,描述了模塊的應(yīng)用流程,在此之上實(shí)現(xiàn)了演練Agent系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行與調(diào)度。通過(guò)三維引擎的設(shè)計(jì)與實(shí)現(xiàn)描述和三維場(chǎng)景組態(tài)工具的描述,完整的展示了一個(gè)高效實(shí)用的應(yīng)急演練三維核心引擎的整體方案。
[Abstract]:Disaster emergency drill is an effective method to deal with various disasters. The application of computer technology assistant emergency drill not only can help the drilling participants become familiar with the emergency plan, improve the team's cooperation ability, but also help the decision-maker to check whether the emergency plan is reasonable. The research of computer-aided emergency drill system involves multi-disciplinary integration. In this paper, the key technology of computer-aided emergency drill system soil is studied, and the concrete work is as follows: 1. According to the classical chemical disaster description formula, the concept and the disaster field of the third class disaster field of chemical engineering are put forward. The method is verified by a pool fire temperature field algorithm, a disaster simulation agent system is established based on the disaster field algorithm, the core structure of each agent is designed, In this paper, the simulation structure design and implementation of the disaster field are solved at the system level, the three-dimensional rendering idea and optimization method of the disaster are studied, the related rendering parameters selection method is given for different disasters, and the three-dimensional rendering of the disaster field is solved. 2. According to the complexity of the spread of chemical disasters, the multi-hazard network model was established based on the complex network theory and the multi-hazard network model was established, and the triggering and transmission of chemical multi-hazard was explored. In this paper, a comprehensive effect model based on disaster information entropy is proposed and presented. The comprehensive influence algorithm also takes into account the shielding factor of disaster and disaster, and designs the relevant parameters. On this basis, based on the node disaster disturbance and the propagation universal dynamic model of the complex network, the simulation of the potential disaster triggering and multi-hazard dynamic evolution process of the chemical plant is constructed. The real calculation model. 3. Emphasis will be given on the practice of fuzzy expert system and the setting of the simulation system. Based on fuzzy rough set theory, this paper studies the reduction method of expert system reasoning rule, and then applies fuzzy rough set entropy matching algorithm to construct the emergency plan deduction process. The pre-rule matching method. The design of the fuzzy hybrid method realizes the uncertainty problem. Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a fuzzy rough set based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is proposed. The comprehensive modeling method of knowledge measure is introduced, and the related concepts of various knowledge measures in rough sets are analyzed first. Secondly, use the AHP method to establish the emergency performance. Finally, the control algorithm of drill process and the core control flow formed on the basis of this method are also designed, and the fuzzy control rule is also given. According to the multi-level of the emergency drill process and the result evaluation and the mixture of subjective and objective indexes, a hierarchical entropy weight is put forward. Firstly, a layered entropy weight analysis method is established on the basis of traditional entropy weight analysis method; secondly, the main objective mixed evaluation method is studied, and the mixed evaluation method is proposed. The concept of the combining factor and the calculation method are given. The research results not only solve the singularity problem of the entropy weight analysis evaluation, but also solve the subjectivity deviation problem of the AHP method on the right value setting. and 6, the emergency drill system and its core module are developed by using the modularized method, The design idea and architecture of the module and the system are described. The script system module is designed by using the object-oriented design idea, and the application flow of the module is described. The operation and scheduling of the drilling agent system is realized. Through the three-dimensional engine design and realization description and the description of the three-dimensional scene configuration tool, the complete display shows a high-efficiency reality.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京化工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TQ086;TP391.9

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