高速鐵路地震預(yù)警震級快速準確預(yù)測方法
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-25 10:05
【摘要】：基于我國高速鐵路沿線路排列的原位地震監(jiān)測網(wǎng)絡(luò)所必需的單臺站預(yù)警模式,研究提出基于位移平方積分的地震震級預(yù)測方法,并與具有代表性的基于平均周期和基于位移幅值的地震震級預(yù)測方法進行比較。應(yīng)用2008年汶川Ms8.0級地震的記錄數(shù)據(jù),分別推導(dǎo)基于位移平方積分、平均周期和位移幅值這3個特征參數(shù)的地震震級預(yù)測公式;對比3個公式的預(yù)測結(jié)果可知,基于位移平方積分的地震震級預(yù)測方法預(yù)測的震級偏差的標準差最小。通過對地震數(shù)據(jù)進行頻域特性解析,擬合分析3s初始P波譜強度的對數(shù)與預(yù)測震級偏差之間的相關(guān)性,進而提出對震級偏差進行有效修正的方法,修正后的預(yù)測方法能夠緩解預(yù)測大地震時出現(xiàn)的震級"飽和"現(xiàn)象,提高震級的預(yù)測精度。提出的基于位移平方積分的地震震級預(yù)測公式與修正方法可以實時、準確、快速、有效地預(yù)測復(fù)雜震源的地震震級,能夠滿足高速鐵路單臺站地震預(yù)警的嚴格要求。
[Abstract]:Based on the pre-warning model of a single station necessary for the in-situ seismic monitoring network arranged along the high speed railway in China, the earthquake magnitude prediction method based on the square integral of displacement is proposed. The results are compared with the representative earthquake magnitude prediction methods based on average period and displacement amplitude. Based on the recorded data of the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, the earthquake magnitude prediction formulas based on the three characteristic parameters of displacement square integral, mean period and displacement amplitude are derived, and the prediction results of the three formulas are compared. The standard deviation of magnitude deviation predicted by the method of magnitude prediction based on displacement square integral is minimum. The correlation between the logarithm of the initial P spectrum intensity of 3s and the magnitude deviation of prediction is analyzed by analyzing the frequency domain characteristics of the seismic data, and the method of effectively correcting the magnitude deviation is put forward. The modified prediction method can alleviate the phenomenon of magnitude saturation and improve the accuracy of magnitude prediction. The formula and correction method of earthquake magnitude prediction based on displacement square integral can predict the magnitude of complex source in real time, accurately, quickly and effectively, and can meet the strict requirements of single station earthquake warning in high-speed railway.
【作者單位】： 北京交通大學(xué)土木建筑工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(51278045);國家自然科學(xué)基金高鐵聯(lián)合基金重點資助項目(U1434210) 鐵道部科技研究開發(fā)計劃項目(2010G08-C-1) 深圳地鐵集團科研項目(SZ-CGM-KY001/2014)
【分類號】：U238;U298
[Abstract]:Based on the pre-warning model of a single station necessary for the in-situ seismic monitoring network arranged along the high speed railway in China, the earthquake magnitude prediction method based on the square integral of displacement is proposed. The results are compared with the representative earthquake magnitude prediction methods based on average period and displacement amplitude. Based on the recorded data of the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, the earthquake magnitude prediction formulas based on the three characteristic parameters of displacement square integral, mean period and displacement amplitude are derived, and the prediction results of the three formulas are compared. The standard deviation of magnitude deviation predicted by the method of magnitude prediction based on displacement square integral is minimum. The correlation between the logarithm of the initial P spectrum intensity of 3s and the magnitude deviation of prediction is analyzed by analyzing the frequency domain characteristics of the seismic data, and the method of effectively correcting the magnitude deviation is put forward. The modified prediction method can alleviate the phenomenon of magnitude saturation and improve the accuracy of magnitude prediction. The formula and correction method of earthquake magnitude prediction based on displacement square integral can predict the magnitude of complex source in real time, accurately, quickly and effectively, and can meet the strict requirements of single station earthquake warning in high-speed railway.
【作者單位】： 北京交通大學(xué)土木建筑工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(51278045);國家自然科學(xué)基金高鐵聯(lián)合基金重點資助項目(U1434210) 鐵道部科技研究開發(fā)計劃項目(2010G08-C-1) 深圳地鐵集團科研項目(SZ-CGM-KY001/2014)
【分類號】：U238;U298
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