【摘要】：山區(qū)公路線形復(fù)雜,急彎路段較多,陡坡路段頻繁,道路狹窄,山區(qū)地形地勢(shì)復(fù)雜多變,山區(qū)公路布線困難;山區(qū)公路復(fù)雜的路側(cè)環(huán)境和天氣條件,造成行車視距不足,駕駛員安全駕駛困難,容易誘發(fā)交通事故,且事故后果嚴(yán)重,路面狀況不良和安全設(shè)施不完善也是引起交通事故的重要因素,因此山區(qū)公路行車安全研究依然迫切。國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)于道路安全研究主要集中在道路幾何線形設(shè)計(jì)對(duì)道路安全的影響,山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法研究成果不足。本文采取風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究山區(qū)公路行車安全,深入研究風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法原理以及評(píng)價(jià)模型,研究每種評(píng)價(jià)方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)和適用領(lǐng)域,以及山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)特點(diǎn)和要求,采用主成分分析法和層次分析——模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)相結(jié)合的方法評(píng)價(jià)山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。首先,建立山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素識(shí)別體系,劃分山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素類別,即道路線形、行車環(huán)境和其它道路因素,建立山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)集,針對(duì)不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)建立相應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)子集,確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)子集的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率值,并采用事故調(diào)查法和專家評(píng)估法確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)后果的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失值。采用主層次分析法的原理,將山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率值和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失后果值合并為相應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指數(shù),采用層次分析法確定山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的修正權(quán)重值。建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)等級(jí)隸屬度函數(shù),計(jì)算評(píng)價(jià)指數(shù)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)的隸屬程度,采用模糊數(shù)學(xué)計(jì)算方法,結(jié)合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)隸屬度和修正權(quán)重值,建立山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型。針對(duì)不同行車環(huán)境條件下,將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指數(shù)代入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型,對(duì)山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)。其次,按照山區(qū)公路交通事故率和事故損失嚴(yán)重程度,確定山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn),將山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)劃分為五個(gè)等級(jí),分別是輕微風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、較低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、一般風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、嚴(yán)重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和災(zāi)難性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。分析不同等級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的形成原因,針對(duì)不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)的山區(qū)公路,從完善安保設(shè)施、行車速度控制、交通管制和緊急救援等方面采取相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控措施。最后,選取212線西昌缸窯至寧南葫蘆口(湯家坪)路段,作為山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)對(duì)象,采用層次分析—模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法評(píng)價(jià)該路段的行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。通過分析行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)過程和評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果,研究山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法的實(shí)用性和合理性。本文通過分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)常用的方法,結(jié)合山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)原理,提出層次分析法—模糊數(shù)學(xué)評(píng)價(jià)模型來研究山區(qū)公路行車風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí),針對(duì)不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)提出相應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控措施,為山區(qū)公路采取科學(xué)的管理措施提供依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The road alignment of mountain area is complex, the road with sharp bend is more, the steep slope section is frequent, the road is narrow, the terrain of mountain area is complex and changeable, the mountain road routing is difficult, and the complicated road side environment and weather condition of mountain road result in insufficient driving horizon. It is difficult for drivers to drive safely, and it is easy to induce traffic accidents, and the consequences of accidents are serious. Poor road conditions and imperfect safety facilities are also the important factors causing traffic accidents. Therefore, the study of road safety in mountain areas is still urgent. The research on road safety at home and abroad mainly focuses on the influence of road geometric alignment design on road safety. In this paper, risk assessment is adopted to study road safety in mountainous areas, and the principles and models of risk assessment methods are deeply studied. The advantages, disadvantages and applicable fields of each evaluation method, as well as the characteristics and requirements of risk assessment for mountain highway driving are studied. The principal component analysis (PCA) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are used to evaluate the traffic risk of mountain highway. First of all, establish the mountain road driving risk factors identification system, divide the mountain road driving risk factors into categories, that is, road alignment, driving environment and other road factors, establish the mountain road driving risk evaluation index set. The corresponding risk evaluation index subset is established for different risk evaluation indexes, the risk probability value of the risk evaluation index subset is determined, and the risk loss value of the risk consequence is determined by the accident investigation method and the expert evaluation method. Based on the principle of principal analytic hierarchy process (PCA), the risk probability value and risk loss consequence value of risk assessment index of mountain highway driving are combined into corresponding risk evaluation index. Using AHP to determine the revised weight value of the evaluation index of highway driving risk in mountain area. The membership degree function of risk evaluation grade is established, the membership degree of evaluation index to risk grade is calculated, the fuzzy mathematics method is adopted, and the risk grade membership degree and modified weight value of risk evaluation index are combined. The risk assessment model of mountain highway is established. Aiming at different driving environment conditions, the risk assessment index is added to the risk assessment model to evaluate the driving risk of mountain highway. Secondly, according to the traffic accident rate and the severity of accident loss, the paper determines the classification standard of mountain highway traffic risk, and divides the mountain road driving risk into five grades, namely, minor risk, lower risk and general risk. Serious and catastrophic risks. This paper analyzes the causes of the formation of different risk levels, and takes corresponding risk prevention and control measures from the aspects of perfecting security facilities, driving speed control, traffic control and emergency rescue for mountain highways with different risk levels. Finally, the section from Xichang cylinder Kiln to Hulukou (Tangjiaping) of line 212 is selected as the risk assessment object of mountain highway, and the traffic risk grade of this section is evaluated by the method of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Based on the analysis of the evaluation process and results of driving risk, the practicability and reasonableness of the evaluation method of highway driving risk in mountainous area are studied. By analyzing the common methods of risk assessment and combining with the principle of mountain highway traffic risk evaluation, this paper puts forward the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) -fuzzy mathematics evaluation model to study the grade of mountain highway traffic risk. The corresponding risk prevention and control measures are put forward in view of different risk grades, which provide the basis for scientific management measures of mountain highway.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U492.84

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本文編號(hào)：2266228