本文選題：船舶應(yīng)急指揮 + GSPN��； 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：船舶應(yīng)急事故指揮、決策和調(diào)度問(wèn)題是目前海事研究的一個(gè)熱點(diǎn)。從控制角度看,該問(wèn)題屬于系統(tǒng)科學(xué)的范疇。本論文將相互影響、相互作用的船舶設(shè)備、人、事件當(dāng)作一個(gè)有機(jī)交互的系統(tǒng),以Petri網(wǎng)為工具,對(duì)其進(jìn)行模型研究和設(shè)計(jì),以期有效地提高海上應(yīng)急事故的處理能力,減少人為決策失誤引起的海上事故。 本文首先介紹了Petri網(wǎng)的理論基礎(chǔ)和船舶應(yīng)急指揮控制系統(tǒng)(ECSS)的概念,在此基礎(chǔ)上采用Petri網(wǎng)子類——廣義隨機(jī)Petri網(wǎng)(GSPN)對(duì)系統(tǒng)建模并進(jìn)行開(kāi)環(huán)系統(tǒng)的性能分析。為解決初始模型存在的死鎖和資源競(jìng)爭(zhēng)等問(wèn)題,通過(guò)引入有限容量庫(kù)所和抑制弧等結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行改進(jìn)并得到了閉環(huán)系統(tǒng)�；赑IPE軟件的仿真結(jié)果表明,模型能較好地描述真實(shí)物理系統(tǒng),可為海事部門的應(yīng)急指揮決策提供參考。 然后,本文基于ECSS模型分析的結(jié)論,從失誤鏈的角度深入剖析了人為決策失誤的原因。針對(duì)人為決策失誤問(wèn)題,首次將“綜合權(quán)重”和“正交投影法”結(jié)合起來(lái)用以改進(jìn)TOPSIS (Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution)算法并成功將其應(yīng)用到船舶應(yīng)急決策模型。通過(guò)一個(gè)船舶碰撞應(yīng)急實(shí)例的仿真證明：該決策方法不僅能夠預(yù)防人為決策失誤,而且提高了計(jì)算機(jī)輔助決策的實(shí)時(shí)性,具有較好的評(píng)價(jià)和決策效果,實(shí)現(xiàn)了ECSS系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)的最初目標(biāo)。 最后,在總結(jié)全文的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)船舶應(yīng)急控制未來(lái)的研究進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:Ship emergency command, decision-making and scheduling is a hot spot in maritime research. From the point of view of control, this problem belongs to the category of system science. In this paper, the interaction of ship equipment, people and events is regarded as an organic interactive system, and the Petri net is used as a tool to study and design the model, in order to effectively improve the handling capacity of marine emergency. Reduce accidents at sea caused by human error in decision making. In this paper, the theoretical basis of Petri net and the concept of ship emergency command and control system (ECSS) are introduced. Based on this, generalized stochastic Petri net (GSPN) is used to model the system and analyze the performance of open loop system. In order to solve the problems of deadlock and resource competition in the initial model, the closed-loop system is obtained by introducing the structure of finite capacity library and suppression arc. The simulation results based on pipe software show that the model can describe the real physical system well and can provide reference for the emergency command decision of maritime department. Then, based on the conclusion of ECSS model analysis, the causes of human error are analyzed from the point of view of fault chain. Aiming at the problem of human error in decision making, the method of "synthetic weight" and "orthogonal projection" is used to improve the TOPSIS (technique for order performance by Similarity to ideal solution) algorithm for the first time, and it is successfully applied to the ship emergency decision model. The simulation results of a ship collision emergency show that the method can not only prevent human error, but also improve the real-time performance of computer-aided decision, and has a good evaluation and decision effect. The initial goal of ECSS system design is realized. Finally, on the basis of summarizing the full text, the future research of ship emergency control is prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：U698.6

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本文編號(hào)：2071476