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基于聚類多屬性專家群決策的石島船舶警戒區(qū)設(shè)立研究

發(fā)布時間:2018-06-08 21:22

  本文選題:船舶警戒區(qū) + 交通流; 參考:《大連海事大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文


【摘要】:石島水域附近商漁船交通流量大,船舶交匯密集,通航環(huán)境復(fù)雜。該水域漁船密集,有漁業(yè)作業(yè)區(qū)16個,每年作業(yè)漁船達(dá)幾十萬艘次。加之多股交通流在該水域交叉匯聚,商船習(xí)慣航路又與眾多漁場交織在一起。多種因素共同導(dǎo)致該水域水上交通事故頻發(fā)。本文關(guān)于石島水域設(shè)立船舶警戒區(qū)相關(guān)研究,旨在證明該水域是否必要設(shè)立船舶警戒區(qū),以及對推薦的設(shè)立的船舶警戒區(qū)的合理性進(jìn)行評估,以確保在該水域設(shè)立船舶警戒區(qū)是最佳的船舶定線制方案,為海事主管部門決策時提供一定的理論依據(jù)。為了改變石島水域水上交通事故頻發(fā)的局面,確保過往船只的安全,采取最佳的船舶定線制解決方案。本文通過對石島水域通航環(huán)境調(diào)研、查閱相關(guān)歷史資料以及問卷調(diào)查,了解了該水域的水文、氣象及通航情況;贏IS(Automatic Identification System)中心提供的石島水域近些年的船舶交通流數(shù)據(jù),同時結(jié)合IMO(International Maritime Organization)《關(guān)于船舶定線制的一般規(guī)定》的定線制設(shè)計規(guī)范,分析了該水域船舶事故多發(fā)的原因,結(jié)合石島水域商漁船密集的特點,推薦在石島交通流密集水域設(shè)立船舶警戒區(qū),該警戒區(qū)比較特殊,不與其他船舶定線制相結(jié)合,目前全球被IMO所采納的類似船舶警戒區(qū)只有7個。本文結(jié)合IMO相關(guān)設(shè)計規(guī)范和石島水域的通航特點,從交通流、漁船及漁民、船舶事故和警戒區(qū)設(shè)置的一般規(guī)律幾個方面進(jìn)行了闡述,建立了石島水域設(shè)立單獨船舶警戒區(qū)評價指標(biāo)體系,以對該水域設(shè)立單獨船舶警戒區(qū)的必要程度和推薦的船舶警戒區(qū)的合理性進(jìn)行綜合評價。在計算指標(biāo)權(quán)重時,由于專家間經(jīng)驗以及知識水平不一致,評價結(jié)果可能會存在一定的誤差,本文采用的聚類多屬性專家群決策的方法,考慮了專家權(quán)重,可以有效減少這方面的誤差。并且本文采用定性與定量分析相結(jié)合的方法,能使評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)更加客觀準(zhǔn)確。
[Abstract]:The traffic volume of commercial fishing vessel near Shidao waters is large, the vessel intersection is dense, and the navigation environment is complex. There are 16 fishing areas in this area, and hundreds of thousands of fishing boats are operated every year. In addition, multiple streams of traffic converge in the waters, and merchant shipping routes are intertwined with many fishing grounds. A variety of factors together lead to frequent water traffic accidents in this water area. The purpose of this paper is to prove whether a ship warning zone is necessary in the waters of Shek Island, and to evaluate the reasonableness of the recommended ship warning zone. In order to ensure the establishment of ship warning zone in the water area is the best ship routing scheme, and provide a certain theoretical basis for the maritime authorities to make decisions. In order to change the situation of frequent traffic accidents and ensure the safety of passing ships, the best ship routing solution is adopted. Based on the investigation of navigable environment in the waters of Shijiao, this paper finds out the hydrological, meteorological and navigable conditions of the waters by referring to the relevant historical data and questionnaire. Based on the ship traffic flow data provided by the AIS-automatic Identification system Center in recent years, combined with the design specification of the ship routing system of International Maritime Organization, this paper analyzes the reasons for the frequent accidents of ships in this water area. Combined with the characteristics of dense fishing vessels in Shidao waters, it is recommended that a vessel warning zone be set up in the waters with dense traffic flow on the island, which is rather special and does not combine with other ship routing systems. At present, there are only seven similar ship warning zones adopted by IMO worldwide. Combined with IMO design code and navigation characteristics of Shidao waters, this paper expounds the general rules of traffic flow, fishing boats and fishermen, ship accidents and the setting of warning zones. In order to evaluate the necessity of establishing a separate ship warning zone and the rationality of the recommended ship warning zone, an evaluation index system is established for the establishment of a separate ship warning zone in the waters of Shijima. When calculating index weight, due to the inconsistency of experience and knowledge level among experts, there may be some errors in the evaluation results. In this paper, the expert weight is considered in the method of clustering multi-attribute expert group decision. It can effectively reduce the error in this respect. The method of qualitative and quantitative analysis is used in this paper, which can make the evaluation standard more objective and accurate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號】:U698

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本文編號:1997173


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