本文選題：高速公路系統(tǒng) + 安全可靠度　； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,由于國(guó)家政策的出臺(tái)與大力改善,我國(guó)的交通安全狀況有了明顯的提升,然而,與國(guó)外發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家相比,總體交通安全形勢(shì)依然嚴(yán)峻。高速公路系統(tǒng)作為國(guó)家交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)的重要組成部分,其安全性與大眾的生命與財(cái)產(chǎn)安全息息相關(guān),因此進(jìn)行高速公路系統(tǒng)安全性分析與研究是極其必要的。本文根據(jù)系統(tǒng)可靠性理論,研究了高速公路系統(tǒng)的安全可靠度問題。以遼寧省高速公路為例,確定了基于清除變量的單向事故發(fā)生間隔時(shí)間統(tǒng)計(jì)分布形式,構(gòu)建了基于事故發(fā)生間隔時(shí)間的高速公路系統(tǒng)安全可靠度度量模型,提出了基于全部路段和基于關(guān)鍵路段的2種方法用以提升高速公路系統(tǒng)的安全性。首先,分析了高速公路基本路段、主線收費(fèi)站、互通式立體交叉及高速公路系統(tǒng)的事故發(fā)生間隔時(shí)間統(tǒng)計(jì)分布情況。采用MATLAB統(tǒng)計(jì)分析軟件擬合了事故發(fā)生間隔時(shí)間的最優(yōu)分布形式;最終通過皮爾遜卡方檢驗(yàn)確定了高速公路系統(tǒng)及其子單元基于清除變量的單向事故發(fā)生間隔時(shí)間統(tǒng)計(jì)分布形式,即服從對(duì)數(shù)正態(tài)分布。其次,在可靠性理論適用高速公路安全分析的基礎(chǔ)上,定義了高速公路系統(tǒng)的安全可靠度;確定了高速公路系統(tǒng)及其子單元的安全可靠度量化指標(biāo)與函數(shù)形式;根據(jù)標(biāo)定的安全運(yùn)行函數(shù),對(duì)基于交通量和路段長(zhǎng)度的清除變量概念進(jìn)行了明確;最終構(gòu)建了高速公路系統(tǒng)及其子單元的安全可靠度度量模型。然后,提出了基于全部路段和基于關(guān)鍵路段的2種方法用以改善高速公路系統(tǒng)的安全可靠度。確定了高速公路系統(tǒng)及其子單元的安全可靠度改善步驟,具體包括初始安全可靠度計(jì)算、分配權(quán)重系數(shù)確定、目標(biāo)安全可靠度設(shè)定及關(guān)鍵路段識(shí)別;在此基礎(chǔ)上,給出了安全可靠度改善效果分析指標(biāo),并提出了基于成本增量的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益分析方法。最后,探討分析了沈山高速公路的安全可靠度應(yīng)用情況。分別采用2種方法對(duì)沈山高速公路系統(tǒng)及其子單元的安全可靠度進(jìn)行了改善,提出了具體的安全可靠度改善措施,并對(duì)二者的安全可靠度改善效果及成本效益進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析。分析結(jié)果表明,基于關(guān)鍵路段的可靠度提升率明顯高于基于全部路段的可靠度提升率,但基于全部路段的安全可靠度改善方法更為經(jīng)濟(jì)且值得推廣。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the introduction and improvement of national policies, the traffic safety situation in China has obviously improved. However, compared with the developed countries, the overall traffic safety situation is still grim. As an important part of national transportation network, the safety of expressway system is closely related to the safety of public life and property, so it is extremely necessary to analyze and study the safety of expressway system. Based on the theory of system reliability, the problem of safety reliability of expressway system is studied in this paper. Taking Liaoning Provincial Expressway as an example, the statistical distribution form of one-way accident interval time based on clearing variables is determined, and the safety reliability measurement model of expressway system based on accident interval time is constructed. Two methods based on all sections and key sections are proposed to improve the safety of expressway system. Firstly, the statistical distribution of the basic section of expressway, the main toll station, the interchange and the interval time between accidents are analyzed. The optimal distribution form of accident interval time is fitted by using MATLAB statistical analysis software, and the statistical distribution form of one-way accident interval time of expressway system and its sub-units based on clearing variables is determined by Pearson chi-square test. That is, from the logarithmic normal distribution. Secondly, on the basis of applying reliability theory to highway safety analysis, the safety reliability of expressway system is defined, and the quantitative index and function of safety reliability of expressway system and its sub-units are determined. According to the calibrated safe operation function, the concept of clear variables based on traffic volume and section length is clarified. Finally, the safety reliability measurement model of expressway system and its sub-units is constructed. Then, two methods based on all sections and key sections are proposed to improve the safety reliability of expressway system. The steps of improving the safety reliability of the expressway system and its sub-units are determined, including the calculation of the initial safety reliability, the determination of the distribution weight coefficient, the setting of the target safety reliability and the identification of the key sections. The analysis index of safety reliability improvement effect is given, and the economic benefit analysis method based on cost increment is put forward. Finally, the application of safety and reliability of Shenshan Expressway is discussed and analyzed. Two methods were used to improve the safety reliability of Shen-Shan expressway system and its sub-units, and the concrete measures to improve the safety reliability were put forward, and the effectiveness and cost benefit of the two methods were compared and analyzed. The results show that the improvement rate of reliability based on key sections is obviously higher than that based on all sections, but the method of improving safety reliability based on all sections is more economical and worth popularizing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U492.8

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 左志;王濤;潘曉鋒;;基于路網(wǎng)可靠性的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)段辨識(shí)——以烏魯木齊市為例[J];交通運(yùn)輸研究;2015年05期

2 孟祥海;李昕;鄭來;;基于事故數(shù)據(jù)與安全服務(wù)水平的高速公路路段安全性評(píng)價(jià)方法[J];交通運(yùn)輸工程學(xué)報(bào);2014年06期

3 屠書榮;姚陽(yáng);張澤良;;雙車道公路運(yùn)行速度計(jì)算與安全性評(píng)價(jià)方法研究[J];公路交通技術(shù);2013年02期

4 謝彤;許可;;道路交通系統(tǒng)的安全可靠度模型構(gòu)建[J];山西建筑;2012年29期

5 高愛霞;陳艷艷;;異常事件下路網(wǎng)恢復(fù)可靠性研究[J];武漢理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(交通科學(xué)與工程版);2010年03期

6 冷軍強(qiáng);張亞平;韓麗飛;張偉;;冰雪條件下城市路網(wǎng)容量可靠性[J];哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2010年04期

7 唐夕茹;陳艷艷;;事故處理時(shí)間與路網(wǎng)恢復(fù)可靠度關(guān)系研究[J];交通運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)工程與信息;2009年05期

8 繆立新;張占武;曲小波;;基于行程時(shí)間可靠性改進(jìn)的公交服務(wù)水平優(yōu)化策略[J];中國(guó)市場(chǎng);2009年41期

9 唐夕茹;陳艷艷;;基于DYNASMART路網(wǎng)恢復(fù)可靠性研究[J];交通信息與安全;2009年04期

10 張勇;;考慮路段關(guān)聯(lián)失效的路網(wǎng)行程時(shí)間可靠性估計(jì)[J];土木工程學(xué)報(bào);2008年08期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 方豪星;基于可靠度的高速公路安全性分析及提升研究[D];哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué);2016年

2 叢中蔚;生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)可靠性分配方法與案例研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2014年

，

本文編號(hào)：1982310