本文選題：鐵路應(yīng)急管理 + 鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案��； 參考：《西南交通大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：鐵路作為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的大動脈和國家重要的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,在國家綜合交通運(yùn)輸體系中占據(jù)骨干和中樞地位。近年來,我國鐵路朝著客運(yùn)高速化、貨運(yùn)重載化、管理信息化、運(yùn)營市場化的方向發(fā)展,為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的發(fā)展提供重要的支撐與保障。但隨著列車運(yùn)行速度的不斷提高、運(yùn)力的持續(xù)增加、高新科技裝備與技術(shù)的大量投入與使用、體制機(jī)制改革的不斷深化,鐵路突發(fā)事件的多樣性、復(fù)雜性、后果嚴(yán)重性、時(shí)間緊迫性和社會公眾性等特點(diǎn)日益凸顯,給鐵路的應(yīng)急日常管理和應(yīng)急救援指揮帶來很多挑戰(zhàn),鐵路運(yùn)輸?shù)陌踩蝿萑找鎳?yán)峻。因此鐵路急需建立完善的應(yīng)急管理體系,保障快速、安全處置鐵路各類突發(fā)事件,在最短的時(shí)間內(nèi)恢復(fù)正常的運(yùn)輸秩序,力爭減少人員傷亡和財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。同時(shí),突出應(yīng)急預(yù)案體系問題也較為突出：多數(shù)應(yīng)急預(yù)案框架性和原則性過強(qiáng),針對性和可操作性不足；制定預(yù)案時(shí)多依據(jù)統(tǒng)一的框架指南,較少針對具體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)場景；缺少公開的宣傳教育和動態(tài)的專業(yè)評估；缺少以發(fā)現(xiàn)問題為目的的演練等。鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估作為應(yīng)急預(yù)案體系的重要一環(huán),是對鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案質(zhì)量高低的整體評估。通過對事先關(guān)鍵因素的識別和分析以及可靠的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),采用科學(xué)合理的方法對評價(jià)目標(biāo)進(jìn)行合理分級與優(yōu)選的系統(tǒng)化過程,有利于提高預(yù)案質(zhì)量,保證迅速、有序、有效地開展應(yīng)急與救援行動,降低突發(fā)事件對鐵路系統(tǒng)各環(huán)節(jié)所帶來的損失。因此,對于鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估問題的研究具有重要的理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文將結(jié)合我國鐵路應(yīng)急管理體系中所面臨的各類不同的實(shí)際情境,在既有研究的基礎(chǔ)上,嘗試構(gòu)建更為完善的鐵路應(yīng)急管理體系、鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案體系。特別地,全文針對鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案的優(yōu)選決策問題,構(gòu)建應(yīng)對不同情境的鐵路突發(fā)事件的鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案決策模型以考核應(yīng)急預(yù)案的優(yōu)劣。本文的主要研究工作包括以下幾個(gè)方面：1.既有文獻(xiàn)的回顧分析。在總結(jié)大量相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,從三方面對我國應(yīng)急管理發(fā)展歷程、應(yīng)急管理體系研究、應(yīng)急預(yù)案體系予以介紹與回顧。具體包含以下幾方面：我國應(yīng)急管理的發(fā)展歷程、我國鐵路應(yīng)急管理發(fā)展歷程、我國應(yīng)急管理體系研究現(xiàn)狀、我國鐵路應(yīng)急管理體系研究現(xiàn)狀、我國應(yīng)急預(yù)案體系研究現(xiàn)狀、我國鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案體系研究現(xiàn)狀。2.建立鐵路應(yīng)急管理與應(yīng)急預(yù)案體系。闡述了鐵路突發(fā)事件誘因以及分級分類情況,界定鐵路應(yīng)急管理內(nèi)涵。通過分析鐵路應(yīng)急管理存在的問題,提出新的鐵路應(yīng)急管理體系框架結(jié)構(gòu)。針對鐵路應(yīng)急管理與應(yīng)急預(yù)案管理特點(diǎn),界定鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案體系概念,并在應(yīng)急管理體系框架結(jié)構(gòu)的基礎(chǔ)上,從鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案頂層設(shè)計(jì)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析與應(yīng)急能力評估、鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案系統(tǒng)、鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案管理規(guī)章制度與鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案管理信息系統(tǒng)等方面構(gòu)建鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案子體系。梳理了各部分內(nèi)容關(guān)系,重構(gòu)了不同種類預(yù)案的層級結(jié)構(gòu)。此外,探討了鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估的基本概念,提出鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估指標(biāo)體系,分析了鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估的多主體、模糊性、關(guān)聯(lián)性以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性等特點(diǎn),指出鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估問題往往表現(xiàn)為基于信息關(guān)聯(lián)輸入與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好相融合的模糊多屬性群決策問題。3.構(gòu)建群體專家偏好關(guān)聯(lián)的鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估模型。首先,根據(jù)進(jìn)一步完善的直覺梯形模糊數(shù)運(yùn)算法則,提出基于模糊測度和Choquet積分的直覺梯形模糊數(shù)的信息集成算子,證明該集成算子的相關(guān)性質(zhì)。其次,并依據(jù)前景理論定義直覺梯形模糊前景效應(yīng)與前景價(jià)值函數(shù),構(gòu)造前景ITFNCI算子。而后,針對鐵路系統(tǒng)內(nèi)各部門多方參與且專家偏好信息關(guān)聯(lián)的鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估問題,利用前景ITFNCI算子集結(jié)群體直覺梯形前景價(jià)值函數(shù),進(jìn)而采用MULTIMOORA理論進(jìn)行預(yù)案比選,基于優(yōu)勢理論可獲得鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案的綜合排序以確定最優(yōu)預(yù)案。4.考慮專家與屬性均關(guān)聯(lián)的鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估模型構(gòu)建研究。首先,構(gòu)建直覺梯形模糊決策矩陣序列,予以標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理,并將其轉(zhuǎn)化為極小期望決策序列；其次,綜合利用基于熵權(quán)法和考慮專家偏好關(guān)聯(lián)的基于2-可加模糊測度與Choquet積分聯(lián)合的主客觀賦權(quán)法確定專家權(quán)重及屬性權(quán)重；再次,分別引入WITFB平均算子及ITFN的Hamming距離以改進(jìn)傳統(tǒng)MULTIMOORA群體決策方法,基于優(yōu)勢理論可對鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案展開綜合排序以確定最優(yōu)預(yù)案。5.基于前景信息關(guān)聯(lián)輸入的鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估模型研究。首先,基于進(jìn)一步完善的IITFN運(yùn)算規(guī)則,討論其局部封閉性。由此定義IITFN幾何Bonferroni平均算子,并驗(yàn)證該算子的相關(guān)性質(zhì)。在以IITFN表征評估信息的鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估框架內(nèi),引入前景理論解釋專家心理行為特征,針對專家及屬性之間均存在關(guān)聯(lián)作用且權(quán)重均未知的鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估模型構(gòu)建問題,提出基于前景混合區(qū)間直覺梯形幾何Bonferroni平均算子的信息關(guān)聯(lián)輸入的鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估模型。該模型首先通過依次定義IITFN的前景效應(yīng)、前景價(jià)值函數(shù)和前景價(jià)值,獲取前景價(jià)值矩陣；其次,將前景價(jià)值矩陣轉(zhuǎn)化為前景記分函數(shù)矩陣,并綜合運(yùn)用基于灰關(guān)聯(lián)深度系數(shù)的客觀屬性權(quán)重極大熵模型和基于2-可加模糊測度與Choquet積分聯(lián)合的專家權(quán)重確定模型,獲取專家及屬性權(quán)重信息；再次,利用PHIITFGB算子集結(jié)各專家的鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估信息,結(jié)合專家權(quán)重即可獲取相應(yīng)于各預(yù)案的綜合前景價(jià)值；最后,計(jì)算綜合前景記分價(jià)值函數(shù),基于IITFN的序關(guān)系判別準(zhǔn)則確定最優(yōu)鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案。
[Abstract]:Railway, as the major artery of our country's economy and the important infrastructure of our country, occupies the backbone and central position in the national comprehensive transportation system. In recent years, China's railway has developed in the direction of high-speed passenger transportation, heavy freight transportation, management information and operation market, which provides important support and guarantee for the development of our country's economy and society. However, with the continuous improvement of the train running speed, the continuous increase of the transportation capacity, the large input and use of the high-tech equipment and technology, the continuous deepening of the reform of the system mechanism, the diversity, complexity, the seriousness of the consequences, the urgency of the time and the social public are becoming more and more prominent. The emergency assistance command brings many challenges and the security situation of railway transportation is increasingly serious. Therefore, the railway needs to establish a perfect emergency management system to ensure the rapid and safe disposal of all kinds of railway emergencies, restore normal transportation order in the shortest time, and strive to reduce casualties and property losses. Meanwhile, the emergency plan system is highlighted. The problem is also more prominent: most of the contingency plans are too framework and principled and lack of pertinence and operability; a unified framework guide is used in the formulation of plans, less specific risk scenarios, lack of public education and dynamic professional assessment, lack of training for the purpose of finding problems, etc. As an important part of the emergency plan system, it is the overall evaluation of the quality of the railway emergency plan. Through the identification and analysis of the key factors and the reliable investigation data, a scientific and reasonable method is used to classify and optimize the evaluation targets reasonably, which is helpful to improve the quality of the plan and ensure the rapid development of the plan. In order to carry out the emergency and rescue operations in an orderly and effective way, reduce the loss caused by the emergency of the railway system. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the evaluation of railway emergency plan. On the basis of this, we try to build a more perfect railway emergency management system and railway emergency plan system. In particular, the full text aims at the optimization decision of railway emergency plan, and constructs a railway emergency plan decision model for railway emergency response in different situations in order to assess the advantages and disadvantages of emergency plan. The main research work of this paper includes the main work of this paper. The following aspects: 1. the review and analysis of the literature. On the basis of a large number of relevant documents, the development process of emergency management, the research of emergency management system and the emergency plan system are introduced and reviewed from three aspects. The following aspects are included: the development course of China's emergency management and the development course of China's railway emergency management. The research status of emergency management system in China, the current situation of railway emergency management system research in China, the present situation of China's emergency plan system research, the current situation of China's railway emergency plan system research status.2. set up the railway emergency management and emergency plan system. The causes of railway emergency events and classification and classification of railway emergency management are expounded, and the connotation of railway emergency management is defined. By analyzing the existing problems of railway emergency management, a new framework of railway emergency management system is put forward. According to the characteristics of emergency management and emergency plan management of railway, the concept of railway emergency plan system is defined. On the basis of the framework of emergency management system, it is designed from the top level of railway emergency plan, risk analysis and emergency ability evaluation. The railway emergency plan system, the railway emergency plan management rules and regulations and the railway emergency plan management information system are constructed. The relationship between the various parts of the railway emergency plan is constructed and the hierarchy structure of different types of plans is restructured. In addition, the basic concept of railway emergency plan evaluation is discussed, and the railway emergency preplan is proposed. The evaluation index system of the case is used to analyze the multi-agent, fuzziness, relevance and risk characteristics of the railway emergency plan evaluation. It is pointed out that the railway emergency plan evaluation is often manifested by the fuzzy multi attribute group decision problem based on the fusion of information related input and risk preference.3. to build a railway emergency plan for the association of group experts. First, according to the further perfect intuitionistic trapezoid fuzzy number operation rule, the information integration operator based on the intuitionistic trapezoid fuzzy number based on fuzzy measure and Choquet integral is proposed, and the related properties of the integrated operator are proved. Secondly, the foreground and foreground value function is defined according to the prospect theory, and the prospect is constructed. ITFNCI operator. Then, aiming at the railway emergency plan evaluation problem of various departments involved in the railway system and the information association of experts' preference information, the prospect value function of the group intuitionistic trapezoidal foreground is aggregated by the foreground ITFNCI operator, and then the preplan is selected by the MULTIMOORA theory. Based on the potential theory, the comprehensive ranking of the railway emergency plan can be obtained. In order to determine the optimal plan.4., the railway emergency plan evaluation model which is related to both experts and attributes is considered. First, an intuitionistic trapezoid fuzzy decision matrix sequence is constructed, which is standardized and transformed into a minimum expected decision sequence. Secondly, the 2- additive model based on entropy weight method and the Association of expert preference is synthetically utilized. The subjective and objective weighting method combined with Choquet integral is used to determine the weight and attribute weight of the expert. Thirdly, the WITFB average operator and the Hamming distance of ITFN are introduced to improve the traditional MULTIMOORA group decision-making method. Based on the advantage theory, the railway emergency plan can be integrated to determine the optimal plan.5. based on the foreground information association. First, based on the further improved IITFN operation rules, the local closure of the railway emergency preparedness is discussed. Thus, the IITFN geometry Bonferroni mean operator is defined and the related properties of the operator are verified. The prospect theory is introduced to explain the expert's heart in the framework of the evaluation information of the railway emergency pre case with the IITFN evaluation information. In order to construct a railway emergency plan evaluation model based on the Bonferroni mean operator of the intuitionistic trapezoid geometry of the foreground mixed interval, a model of railway contingency prediction evaluation model based on the relationship between the experts and the attributes and the unknown weight is proposed. The model first defines the front of the IITFN in turn. The view effect, foreground value function and foreground value are obtained. Secondly, the foreground value matrix is transformed into a foreground score function matrix, and the model based on the weight entropy model of objective attribute weight based on the grey correlation depth coefficient and the expert weight based on the combination of 2- additive fuzzy measure and Choquet integral is obtained. Home and attribute weight information; thirdly, using the PHIITFGB operator to gather the evaluation information of the railway emergency plan for each expert, and combine the expert weight to obtain the comprehensive foreground value of each plan. Finally, the value function of the comprehensive prospect is calculated, and the optimal railway emergency plan is determined based on the order relation criterion of IITFN.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：U298

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 茍敏;李夏苗;趙杰群;;基于Vague集的鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評價(jià)方法[J];中國安全生產(chǎn)科學(xué)技術(shù);2016年01期

2 樊自甫;王蕾;;基于流程的通信保障應(yīng)急預(yù)案有效性評估模型及應(yīng)用[J];科技管理研究;2016年01期

3 薛元杰;周建新;劉鐵民;;突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急預(yù)案的評估研究[J];中國安全生產(chǎn)科學(xué)技術(shù);2015年10期

4 王興鵬;;基于知識管理的企業(yè)應(yīng)急預(yù)案管理體系研究[J];情報(bào)雜志;2015年10期

5 張麗;柏萍;汪忠雨;郭涵予;;基于層次分析與模糊綜合評價(jià)的事故應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估[J];中國安全生產(chǎn)科學(xué)技術(shù);2015年09期

6 趙樹平;梁昌勇;羅大偉;;基于誘導(dǎo)型直覺不確定語言集成算子的應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估群決策方法[J];計(jì)算機(jī)應(yīng)用研究;2016年03期

7 熊曉青;張忠民;;突發(fā)霧霾事件應(yīng)急預(yù)案的合法性危機(jī)與治理[J];中國人口·資源與環(huán)境;2015年09期

8 王鯤鵬;曹國志;賈倩;朱文英;周游;;我國政府突發(fā)環(huán)境事件應(yīng)急預(yù)案管理現(xiàn)狀及問題[J];環(huán)境保護(hù)科學(xué);2015年04期

9 徐松鶴;韓傳峰;孟令鵬;吳啟迪;;中國應(yīng)急管理體系的動力結(jié)構(gòu)分析及模式重構(gòu)策略[J];中國軟科學(xué);2015年07期

10 龔鵬飛;;城市道路交通應(yīng)急管理“一案三制”探析[J];災(zāi)害學(xué);2015年03期

，

本文編號：1972107