本文選題：災(zāi)害后果 + 承災(zāi)體�。� 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來發(fā)生的各類突發(fā)事件,導(dǎo)致了大量的人員傷亡和財(cái)產(chǎn)損失,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定造成了嚴(yán)重威脅。突發(fā)事件災(zāi)害后果的嚴(yán)重程度由致災(zāi)因子強(qiáng)度、承災(zāi)體脆弱性、以及區(qū)域應(yīng)急能力決定,由承災(zāi)體受到的影響和破壞表現(xiàn)。即使是同一類型的突發(fā)事件,發(fā)生在不同區(qū)域,其災(zāi)害后果也不盡相同。研究區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害后果演化模型,了解災(zāi)害后果隨時(shí)間發(fā)展變化的趨勢(shì),可以為區(qū)域的防災(zāi)減災(zāi)規(guī)劃提供參考,具有重要意義。本文首先對(duì)災(zāi)害后果演化模型進(jìn)行了理論研究：收集各類突發(fā)事件災(zāi)害損失評(píng)估的相關(guān)研究和資料,提取典型突發(fā)事件的主要承災(zāi)體,以及事件中承災(zāi)體的不同狀態(tài)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,分析不同事件的災(zāi)害過程和影響因素,并定義本研究中災(zāi)害后果和災(zāi)害后果的演化。介紹元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)模型的基本原理,分析元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)模型的要素和災(zāi)害后果演化過程的相似性。基于對(duì)災(zāi)害后果演化的分析,通過土地利用這一媒介,建立起區(qū)域中土地利用類型和承災(zāi)體分布的聯(lián)系。介紹了當(dāng)前土地利用分類的兩種國家標(biāo)準(zhǔn),分析這兩種標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的差異,以及對(duì)于不同類別的承災(zāi)體,應(yīng)當(dāng)選擇何種土地利用分類標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。并基于這兩種標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的統(tǒng)計(jì)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)省級(jí)、七大地理區(qū)級(jí)粒度上不同行政區(qū)土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)的差異進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。最后提出考慮土地利用類型的區(qū)域承災(zāi)體分布假設(shè),分析了幾類主要承災(zāi)體在區(qū)域土地利用類型上的分布。在以上研究的基礎(chǔ)上,分別構(gòu)建了基于元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)的單一土地利用類型的演化模型和多土地利用類型的演化模型,針對(duì)具體的事件建立了模型的規(guī)則。為模擬承災(zāi)體在不同土地利用類型上不均勻分布的影響,擴(kuò)展了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)模型中的鄰居規(guī)則。通過設(shè)置不同的仿真情景,以及對(duì)仿真結(jié)果的分析,考察了脆弱性、空間分布等因素的影響,這些因素使得不同區(qū)域在同樣的致災(zāi)因子強(qiáng)度下表現(xiàn)出不同的災(zāi)害后果。最后將模型拓展應(yīng)用于建筑物震害的推演,推演結(jié)果說明通過合理構(gòu)建規(guī)則,模型也可以應(yīng)用到更多事件中。
[Abstract]:In recent years, all kinds of unexpected events have resulted in a large number of casualties and property losses, and have posed a serious threat to economic development and social stability. The severity of emergency disaster consequences is determined by the intensity of disaster factors, the vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies, and the ability of regional emergency response, and by the impact and damage performance of disaster bearing bodies. Even if the same type of emergency occurs in different regions, its disaster consequences are not the same. It is of great significance to study the evolution model of regional disaster consequences and to understand the trend of the development of disaster consequences with time, which can provide a reference for regional disaster prevention and mitigation planning. In this paper, the evolution model of disaster consequence is studied in theory: collecting the relevant research and data of disaster loss assessment of all kinds of unexpected events, extracting the main disaster bearing bodies of typical emergencies, and the different states of disaster bearing bodies in the event. On this basis, the disaster process and influencing factors of different events are analyzed, and the disaster consequences and the evolution of disaster consequences in this study are defined. This paper introduces the basic principle of cellular automata model, analyzes the elements of cellular automata model and the similarity of disaster consequence evolution process. Based on the analysis of the evolution of disaster consequences, the relationship between the distribution of land use types and disaster bearing bodies in the region is established by means of the medium of land use. This paper introduces two kinds of national standards of land use classification at present, analyzes the differences between these two standards, and what kind of land use classification criteria should be selected for different types of disaster bearing bodies. Based on the statistical survey data of these two standards, the differences of land use structure in different administrative regions at provincial level and seven geographical districts were analyzed statistically. Finally, the assumption of regional disaster bearing body distribution considering land use type is put forward, and the distribution of several main disaster bearing bodies in regional land use type is analyzed. On the basis of the above studies, the evolution model of single land use type based on cellular automata and the evolution model of multiple land use types are constructed, and the rules of the model are established for specific events. In order to simulate the effect of uneven distribution of disaster-bearing bodies on different land use types, the neighbor rules in the standard cellular automata model are extended. By setting different simulation scenarios and analyzing the simulation results, the effects of vulnerability, spatial distribution and other factors are investigated. These factors make different regions show different disaster consequences under the same intensity of disaster factors. Finally, the model is extended to predict the earthquake damage of buildings. The results show that the model can also be applied to more events through reasonable construction rules.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X4

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本文編號(hào)：1968802