本文選題：煤礦瓦斯爆炸 + 態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估��； 參考：《中南大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：摘要：長(zhǎng)期以來,瓦斯災(zāi)害一直威脅著我國(guó)煤炭工業(yè)的健康發(fā)展,并造成了重大的財(cái)產(chǎn)損失和人員傷亡。瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害是煤礦瓦斯災(zāi)害的最主要形式,具有破壞性強(qiáng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)損失大、人員傷亡多等顯著特點(diǎn),是煤礦安全生產(chǎn)中最嚴(yán)重的事故類型。論文針對(duì)煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害防控和預(yù)警體系中存在的薄弱環(huán)節(jié),運(yùn)用安全科學(xué)、系統(tǒng)科學(xué)、信息與計(jì)算科學(xué)以及礦山安全等相關(guān)理論,采用理論研究、現(xiàn)場(chǎng)調(diào)查、數(shù)值分析、計(jì)算機(jī)模擬和系統(tǒng)開發(fā)等相結(jié)合的方法,研究煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估和預(yù)警方法體系,實(shí)現(xiàn)瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害預(yù)警信息化系統(tǒng),對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)煤礦安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)中的瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)“早期識(shí)別”和事故的“事先預(yù)防”,提高煤礦本質(zhì)安全化水平,促進(jìn)煤炭工業(yè)的安全可持續(xù)發(fā)展等具有重要意義。 (1)系統(tǒng)分析了煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害機(jī)理與預(yù)控技術(shù),提出了現(xiàn)有煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害預(yù)控管理理論與方法體系尚存在的問題；針對(duì)煤礦安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)具有的非線性動(dòng)力學(xué)特性和瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的復(fù)雜性,將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和事故致因理論引入到煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害預(yù)控中,提出了基于多源信息融合機(jī)制的煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估與預(yù)警模型,以解決現(xiàn)有瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害預(yù)防所需的信息量少、信息及時(shí)性差等問題。 (2)針對(duì)煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害危險(xiǎn)源的多樣性與復(fù)雜性,以及它們之間存在相互影響、相互作用且?guī)в蟹答伒忍攸c(diǎn),從“人-機(jī)-環(huán)境-管理”4個(gè)層面來系統(tǒng)分析瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害系統(tǒng)的危險(xiǎn)源,采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法來計(jì)算危險(xiǎn)源對(duì)瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害影響程度的大小,根據(jù)灰色關(guān)聯(lián)計(jì)算結(jié)果來構(gòu)建煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系；運(yùn)用網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法ANP來刻畫評(píng)估指標(biāo)之間非線性和非彼此獨(dú)立的網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系,并計(jì)算評(píng)估指標(biāo)的權(quán)重分布。 (3)提出了煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估的GRA-ANP-FCE模型。該模型采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析方法計(jì)算影響因素的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度并進(jìn)行排序,以獲得煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害的主控因素,采用網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法建立了多準(zhǔn)則、多層次的評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型并計(jì)算各評(píng)估指標(biāo)權(quán)重,結(jié)合評(píng)估指標(biāo)的權(quán)重分布,采用多級(jí)模糊綜合評(píng)判法對(duì)煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害的態(tài)勢(shì)進(jìn)行評(píng)估；針對(duì)煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害系統(tǒng)中存在大量確定性和不確定性影響因素,運(yùn)用集對(duì)分析理論中的聯(lián)系熵特性,提出了煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)的ANP-SPA評(píng)估模型,并應(yīng)用該模型對(duì)煤礦進(jìn)行瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估。 (4)根據(jù)煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估與預(yù)警框架,在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分級(jí)體系和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)研究基礎(chǔ)上,系統(tǒng)闡述了瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估與預(yù)警的程序與內(nèi)容和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警等級(jí)與預(yù)警閥值設(shè)置；分析了GRNN神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測(cè)基本原理,并提出了對(duì)GRNN神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的光滑因子進(jìn)行優(yōu)化算法,建立了基于改進(jìn)的GRNN的瓦斯?jié)舛阮A(yù)警模型并進(jìn)行了模型性能檢驗(yàn)和效果評(píng)估,預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果可靠,對(duì)瓦斯?jié)舛阮A(yù)測(cè)超限預(yù)警達(dá)到了很好的效果；分析了概率神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(PNN)和信息融合中決策層融合的基本原理,建立了瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害的決策層融合PNN預(yù)警模型,通過實(shí)例驗(yàn)證,PNN預(yù)警模型在瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害預(yù)警中的預(yù)警能力強(qiáng)、效率高。 (5)在系統(tǒng)分析煤礦安全生產(chǎn)中其它業(yè)務(wù)管理信息系統(tǒng)的體系和數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)構(gòu)基礎(chǔ)上,設(shè)計(jì)煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估與預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的結(jié)構(gòu)及其數(shù)據(jù)流程,構(gòu)建了煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估與預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的體系結(jié)構(gòu),并建立基于多源信息融合的災(zāi)害預(yù)警共享數(shù)據(jù)中心。為提高信息系統(tǒng)的可擴(kuò)展性、可靠性、健壯性和魯棒性,采用多語言多平臺(tái)的設(shè)計(jì)理念來開發(fā)煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估與預(yù)警信息系統(tǒng),包括Matlab、PowerBuilder和Visual C++等。 論文針對(duì)煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)控中存在的薄弱環(huán)節(jié),在國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(51274100)等資助下,運(yùn)用多學(xué)科交叉理論進(jìn)行了瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估與預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)建與應(yīng)用研究,有較高的學(xué)術(shù)研究?jī)r(jià)值和推廣應(yīng)用前景。(圖83幅,表28個(gè),參考文獻(xiàn)195篇)
[Abstract]:Abstract: for a long time, gas disasters have been threatening the healthy development of China's coal industry and causing significant property losses and casualties. The gas explosion disaster is the most important form of coal mine gas disaster, which is characterized by strong destructive, great economic loss and many casualties. It is the most serious accident in coal mine safety production. In view of the weak links in the prevention and control and early warning system of coal mine gas explosion disaster, the paper uses the theory research, field investigation, numerical analysis, computer simulation and system development to study coal mine gas explosion, using the relevant theories of safety science, system science, information and calculation science and mine safety, and other related theories in the system of prevention and control and early warning of coal mine gas explosion disaster. The system of disaster situation assessment and early warning method to realize the early warning information system of gas explosion disaster is of great significance to realizing the "early identification" of the risk of gas explosion disaster in the coal mine safety production system and the "pre prevention" of the accident, improving the level of the essential safety of the coal mine and promoting the safe and sustainable development of the coal industry.
(1) systematic analysis of the coal mine gas explosion disaster mechanism and pre control technology, proposed the existing coal mine gas explosion hazard control management theory and method system still exist problems. In view of the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of coal mine safety production system and the complexity of the gas explosion hazard risk source, the risk management and accident causation theory are put forward. It is introduced to the precontrol of coal mine gas explosion disaster, and the situation assessment and early warning model of coal mine gas explosion disaster based on multi source information fusion mechanism is put forward, in order to solve the problem of less information and information timeliness needed for the prevention of existing gas explosion disasters.
(2) in view of the diversity and complexity of the dangerous sources of gas explosion hazards in coal mines, and their mutual influence, interaction and feedback, the hazard sources of gas explosion disaster system are systematically analyzed from the 4 aspects of "human machine environment management", and the grey color correlation analysis method is used to calculate the gas explosion disaster. The impact degree of the coal mine gas explosion disaster situation evaluation index system is constructed according to the grey correlation calculation results. The network analysis method ANP is used to describe the nonlinear and non independent network relationship between the evaluation indexes, and the weight distribution of the evaluation indexes is calculated.
(3) the GRA-ANP-FCE model of the coal mine gas explosion disaster situation assessment is put forward. The grey correlation analysis method is used to calculate the grey correlation degree of the influence factors and sort, so as to obtain the main control factors of the coal mine gas explosion disaster. According to the weight distribution of each evaluation index, combined with the weight distribution of evaluation index, the situation of coal mine gas explosion disaster is evaluated by multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In view of the large number of determinacy and uncertainty factors in the coal mine gas explosion disaster system, the coal mine gas is put forward by using the characteristic of the contact entropy in the set pair analysis theory. The ANP-SPA evaluation model of explosion disaster situation is applied, and the model is applied to evaluate the situation of gas explosion disaster in coal mines.
(4) according to the framework of coal mine gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning, on the basis of risk classification system and risk prediction research, the procedures and contents of gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning, risk warning level and early warning threshold setting are systematically expounded, and the basic principle of GRNN neural network prediction is analyzed, and the GRNN nerve is put forward. The smooth factor of the network is optimized, and the improved GRNN based gas concentration early warning model is established and the model performance test and effect evaluation are carried out. The results are reliable and the gas concentration prediction is very effective. The basic original of the probability neural network (PNN) and the decision layer fusion in information fusion is analyzed. In addition, the decision layer of gas explosion disaster is set up to fuse the PNN early warning model. Through the example, it is proved that the PNN early warning model has strong early warning ability and high efficiency in the early warning of gas explosion disaster.
(5) on the basis of systematic analysis of the system and data structure of other business management information systems in coal mine safety production, the structure and data flow of the coal mine gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning system are designed and the system structure of the coal mine gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning system is constructed, and based on the multi source information fusion, the coal mine gas explosion disaster is built. In order to improve the scalability, reliability, robustness and robustness of the information system, the multi language and multi platform design concept is used to develop the coal mine gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning information system, including Matlab, PowerBuilder and Visual C + +.
In view of the weak links in the risk precontrol of coal mine gas explosion hazard, under the support of the National Natural Science Fund Project (51274100), the construction and application of the gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning system are carried out with the multidisciplinary cross theory, which has high academic value and application prospect. (Figure 83 Amplitude, 28 tables, 195 references.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TD712

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