本文選題：航班延誤 + 民航機(jī)場(chǎng)�。� 參考：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：“安全第一”是民航業(yè)一個(gè)至關(guān)重要的命題。民用機(jī)場(chǎng)承擔(dān)著民航安全的重大責(zé)任。近年來，嚴(yán)重危及民航安全的航班延誤現(xiàn)象已經(jīng)成為我國民航日益突出的重要問題。本文分析了國內(nèi)外機(jī)場(chǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究現(xiàn)狀，將航班延誤作為重要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源，，研究航班延誤對(duì)機(jī)場(chǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響，建立了航班延誤下的機(jī)場(chǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系，對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和安全評(píng)估手段方法進(jìn)行了探究。 首先，分析了當(dāng)前我國民航運(yùn)輸業(yè)的航班延誤現(xiàn)狀及機(jī)場(chǎng)安全管理形勢(shì)，綜述了航班延誤、航空安全、安全管理體系及安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析與評(píng)估等問題的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀。闡述了航班延誤下機(jī)場(chǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的定義、流程及兩類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)認(rèn)知。運(yùn)用事故致因理論，對(duì)航班延誤與機(jī)場(chǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行了闡述。 其次，運(yùn)用MMEM理論，從人員子系統(tǒng)、設(shè)備設(shè)施子系統(tǒng)、環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)和安全管理子系統(tǒng)等四個(gè)角度入手，建立了航班延誤下機(jī)場(chǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系。 第三，作為本文的主體部分，采用結(jié)合模糊理論的聚類分析方法，按安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的影響程度進(jìn)行聚類，分析了航班延誤下的機(jī)場(chǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)�；谪惾~斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論建立航班延誤下機(jī)場(chǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)模型，通過采用集結(jié)專家意見的方法對(duì)每一節(jié)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行推理更新，利用軟件GeNIe建立了安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型，并進(jìn)行了反推診斷分析。 民航安全涉及的系統(tǒng)是一種動(dòng)態(tài)、多變量的開放性復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)，不確定因素多，邏輯關(guān)系復(fù)雜。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析中，除了可以定值量化的指標(biāo)外，還有很多無法用數(shù)量值確切表示的定性指標(biāo)，如人員素質(zhì)、管理水平等。鑒于模糊聚類和貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論對(duì)于解決復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)不確定性和關(guān)聯(lián)性引起的事件有很大優(yōu)勢(shì)，選用這兩種方法對(duì)航班延誤下的機(jī)場(chǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估。
[Abstract]:Safety first is a crucial proposition in the civil aviation industry. Civil airports bear the heavy responsibility of civil aviation safety. In recent years, flight delay which seriously endangers the safety of civil aviation has become an increasingly prominent problem in China's civil aviation. This paper analyzes the present situation of airport security risk management at home and abroad, takes flight delay as an important risk source, studies the impact of flight delay on airport security risk, and establishes the airport security risk assessment index system under flight delay. The methods of risk analysis and safety assessment are explored. Firstly, this paper analyzes the current situation of flight delay and airport security management in China's civil aviation transportation industry, and summarizes the domestic and foreign research status of flight delay, aviation safety, safety management system and safety risk analysis and assessment. This paper expounds the definition, process and two kinds of risk cognition of airport security risk management under flight delay. The causality between flight delay and airport security risk is expounded by using accident cause theory. Secondly, using the theory of MMEM, from the personnel subsystem, equipment subsystem, environment subsystem and safety management subsystem, the index system of airport security risk assessment under flight delay is established. Thirdly, as the main part of this paper, the clustering analysis method combined with fuzzy theory is used to analyze the airport security risk under flight delay according to the influence degree of security risk index. The topology model of airport security risk assessment under flight delay is established based on Bayesian network theory. Each node is inferred and updated by the method of gathering expert opinions, and the security risk assessment model is established by software GeNIe. And the back-push diagnostic analysis was carried out. The system involved in civil aviation security is a dynamic, multivariable open complex system with many uncertain factors and complicated logic relations. In risk analysis, there are many qualitative indexes, such as personnel quality, management level and so on, which can not be expressed by quantitative value. In view of the advantage of fuzzy clustering and Bayesian network theory in solving the events caused by uncertainty and correlation of complex systems, these two methods are used to evaluate the airport security risk under flight delay.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：V328

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本文編號(hào)：1910830