發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-27 12:25

  本文選題：危險(xiǎn)貨物 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性　； 參考：《大連交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)化工、石油等行業(yè)快速發(fā)展,人們?cè)絹?lái)越重視這些危險(xiǎn)品在運(yùn)輸過(guò)程中存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性。在整個(gè)鐵路危險(xiǎn)貨物運(yùn)輸?shù)倪^(guò)程中,辦理的大部分業(yè)務(wù)量主要集中在與鐵路銜接的專用線或?qū)Ｓ描F路上。危險(xiǎn)貨物運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高、安全要求嚴(yán)、管理難度大。目前,我國(guó)鐵路危險(xiǎn)貨物辦理站運(yùn)輸安全管理主要依靠經(jīng)驗(yàn)式管理,這就要求鐵路相關(guān)部門要制定出一套科學(xué)有效的綜合分析辦法,對(duì)運(yùn)輸過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性有個(gè)整體的控制。 本文首先分析了影響鐵路危險(xiǎn)貨物運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性的重要因素,通過(guò)研究學(xué)習(xí)系統(tǒng)工程等相關(guān)知識(shí),建立了全面、具體、客觀的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系；其次,闡述了模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法、層次分析法、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度的相關(guān)理論；在對(duì)原始獲得的數(shù)據(jù)處理上,使定性與定量分離,通過(guò)改進(jìn)的層次分析法計(jì)算出各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,對(duì)各種隸屬函數(shù)的計(jì)算方法進(jìn)行對(duì)比,最終選定更加合理、客觀的圓形分布隸屬函數(shù)方法,完善了現(xiàn)有計(jì)算方法的不足之處。由于層次分析法計(jì)算過(guò)程頗大,本文設(shè)計(jì)了excel表格法,簡(jiǎn)單易行的處理了計(jì)算繁瑣的問(wèn)題。 本文以沈陽(yáng)鐵路局某辦理危險(xiǎn)貨物運(yùn)輸?shù)乃牡日炯芭c其接軌的油專用線為例,全面分析了其在運(yùn)輸過(guò)程中可能存在的各種因素,并重點(diǎn)分析了整個(gè)運(yùn)輸過(guò)程中,作業(yè)人員是潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隱患,通過(guò)建立的數(shù)學(xué)模型計(jì)算出評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果,利用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)模糊特征量法確定其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí),并運(yùn)用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度方法對(duì)結(jié)果加以分析和應(yīng)用。結(jié)果顯示運(yùn)用的數(shù)學(xué)模型符合運(yùn)輸生產(chǎn)客觀實(shí)際情況。最后,本文提出了可以降低鐵路危險(xiǎn)貨物運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性的合理化建議,為鐵路危險(xiǎn)貨物運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性研究提供一定的借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's chemical and petroleum industries, people pay more and more attention to the risk of these dangerous goods in the course of transportation. In the course of the transportation of dangerous goods in the whole railway, most of the business volume is mainly concentrated on the dedicated line or special railway connected with the railway. The risks of transportation of dangerous goods are high, the safety requirements are strict, and the management is strict. It is very difficult. At present, the transportation safety management of the railway dangerous goods handling station in our country depends mainly on the experience management, which requires the railway related departments to formulate a set of scientific and effective comprehensive analysis methods, and have a whole control on the risk of the transportation process.
This paper first analyzes the important factors affecting the risk of railway dangerous goods transportation. Through the study of learning system engineering and other related knowledge, a comprehensive, specific and objective evaluation index system is set up. Secondly, the related theories of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, analytic hierarchy process and grey relational degree are expounded. On the other hand, the qualitative and quantitative separation is made, the weight of each index is calculated by the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the calculation methods of various membership functions are compared. Finally, a more reasonable and objective circular distribution function method is selected to improve the shortcomings of the existing calculation methods. The excel table method is simple and easy to handle the tedious problem of computation.
This paper, taking the four station of dangerous goods transportation in Shenyang Railway Bureau and the oil special line which is in line with its rail, analyzes all kinds of factors that may exist in the course of transportation, and emphatically analyzes the potential risk hidden danger in the whole transportation process, and calculates the evaluation result through the established mathematical model and uses the wind. Risk grade fuzzy eigenvalue method is used to determine the risk grade, and the results are analyzed and applied by the grey relational degree method. The results show that the mathematical model is in line with the objective actual situation of transportation production. Finally, this paper puts forward the rationalization proposal to reduce the risk of railway dangerous goods transportation, and the risk of railway dangerous goods transportation. The study of sex provides a certain reference.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：U298;U294.83

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本文編號(hào)：1810723