本文選題：鐵路安全風險 + 風險預(yù)警��； 參考：《中國鐵道科學研究院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著近年來鐵路網(wǎng)規(guī)�？焖贁U張、高速鐵路集中投產(chǎn)、新技術(shù)新裝備大量投入運用,鐵路安全面臨的風險不斷加大,對強化鐵路安全風險管理特別是安全生產(chǎn)過程控制提出了更高的要求。如何確�，F(xiàn)實安全,實現(xiàn)鐵路安全長治久安這一核心目標,實現(xiàn)安全工作由“治病”向“強身”的轉(zhuǎn)變,更需要我們持續(xù)創(chuàng)新安全風險管理。安全風險評價預(yù)警技術(shù)是一種有效的安全趨勢分析和安全風險管理的技術(shù)手段,而在深化鐵路安全風險管理應(yīng)用中,目前面臨著安全風險分類不清,缺乏安全趨勢預(yù)測、風險量化評價和預(yù)警技術(shù)等問題,因此,開展鐵路安全風險預(yù)警評價技術(shù)應(yīng)用研究是目前鐵路安全風險管理的主要研究內(nèi)容之一。本文基于2015年中國鐵路總公司重大科研計劃課題《安全監(jiān)控信息綜合應(yīng)用研究》(合同編號:2015X009-A),通過對國內(nèi)、外鐵路安全風險預(yù)警管理技術(shù)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀的分析,基于我國鐵路深化安全風險管控的實際應(yīng)用需求,結(jié)合信息網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù),以鐵路安全風險量化評價預(yù)警和安全趨勢分析、健全鐵路安全風險預(yù)控管理體系為重點,提出了一種構(gòu)建集鐵路安全風險監(jiān)測和預(yù)警、事故趨勢分析、安全狀態(tài)評等應(yīng)用為一體的安全風險預(yù)警信息服務(wù)平臺的新思路。同時為規(guī)范鐵路安全風險因素數(shù)據(jù)庫的建立,研究明確4大類鐵路風險因素分類標準;為分析和掌握鐵路安全的發(fā)展趨勢,基于多元回歸預(yù)測方法等研究提出了鐵路交通事故趨勢預(yù)測模型;為實現(xiàn)按單位(或?qū)I(yè))下一階段的風險預(yù)警,研究定義了以“危害值”為核心的風險因素危害值量化計算方法,并結(jié)合預(yù)測算法和預(yù)警閾值,提出了基于“風險因素危害值”的定量預(yù)警評價模型;為客觀地綜合評價各鐵路局(各專業(yè))的安全狀態(tài)等級,采用綜合加權(quán)平均法,利用既有可得的鐵路安全實際數(shù)據(jù)信息,結(jié)合鐵路安全管理評價的要求,分別給出按鐵路局和按專業(yè)的安全狀態(tài)評價模型。
[Abstract]:With the rapid expansion of the railway network in recent years, the centralized production of high-speed railways and the large number of new technologies and new equipment, the risks facing railway safety are increasing. Higher requirements are put forward for strengthening railway safety risk management, especially for safety production process control. How to ensure the real safety, realize the core goal of railway safety long-term stability, and realize the change of safety work from "curing illness" to "strengthening body", need us to continuously innovate safety risk management. The early warning technology of safety risk assessment is an effective technical means of security trend analysis and security risk management. However, in deepening the application of railway safety risk management, the classification of safety risk is unclear and the prediction of safety trend is lacking. Therefore, it is one of the main research contents of railway safety risk management to carry out the research on the application of railway safety risk early warning evaluation technology. Based on the project "Comprehensive Application of Safety Monitoring Information" of China Railway Corporation in 2015 (contract No.: 2015X009-AXi), this paper analyzes the present situation of railway safety risk early warning management technology both at home and abroad. Based on the practical application demand of deepening safety risk control in railway of our country, combining with information network technology, focusing on the quantitative evaluation and early warning of railway safety risk and the analysis of safety trend, and perfecting the management system of railway safety risk pre-control, In this paper, a new idea of constructing an information platform for early warning of railway safety risk is put forward, which integrates the application of railway safety risk monitoring and early warning, accident trend analysis and safety state evaluation. At the same time, in order to standardize the establishment of the database of railway safety risk factors, the classification standards of four categories of railway risk factors are studied, and the development trend of railway safety is analyzed and grasped. Based on the research of multiple regression forecasting method, the forecast model of railway traffic accident trend is put forward, and in order to realize the risk early warning in the next stage by unit (or specialty), In this paper, the quantitative calculation method of risk factor hazard value is defined, and a quantitative early-warning evaluation model based on "risk factor hazard value" is put forward by combining forecasting algorithm and warning threshold. In order to objectively and synthetically evaluate the safety state grade of each railway bureau (each specialty), the comprehensive weighted average method is adopted, and the available railway safety actual data information is used in combination with the requirements of railway safety management evaluation. The evaluation models of safety state of railway bureau and specialty are given respectively.
【學位授予單位】：中國鐵道科學研究院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U298

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本文編號：1800224