本文選題：風(fēng)險評估　切入點：風(fēng)險預(yù)測　出處：《中南大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：摘要：煤炭開采是中國最危險行業(yè),尤以瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害以其破壞性強、經(jīng)濟損失大、人員傷亡多等顯著特點對煤礦安全生產(chǎn)造成嚴(yán)重危害。論文針對瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害預(yù)控中存在的薄弱環(huán)節(jié),運用安全科學(xué)、系統(tǒng)科學(xué)、風(fēng)險管理科學(xué)、信息科學(xué)、計算機科學(xué)與工程以及礦山安全等相關(guān)理論,采用理論研究、數(shù)值分析、現(xiàn)場觀測和計算機應(yīng)用相結(jié)合的方法,研究瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險識別與預(yù)警體系,對實現(xiàn)煤礦安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險“早期識別”和事故“事先預(yù)防”、提高煤礦本質(zhì)安全化水平、促進煤礦安全生產(chǎn)及煤炭工業(yè)的安全可持續(xù)發(fā)展等具有重要的意義。 (1)針對現(xiàn)有煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害預(yù)控管理理論與方法體系尚不完善等問題,提出了從風(fēng)險辨識、監(jiān)控、分級、評估、預(yù)測、預(yù)警、對策等一體化視角建立瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險識別與預(yù)警對策的災(zāi)害預(yù)控體系。 (2)對大量瓦斯災(zāi)害事故案例進行了統(tǒng)計分析,獲得了事故特征與統(tǒng)計規(guī)律及時序分形特性；針對瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害中瓦斯涌出與積聚和引爆火源產(chǎn)生等核心問題,對瓦斯涌出與積聚、引爆火源、引爆地點等典型特征進行了分類研究,通過大量瓦斯爆炸事故案例分析獲得了瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害典型特征規(guī)律與耦合規(guī)律,并提出了有效減少瓦斯爆炸事故發(fā)生的有關(guān)建議和措施。 (3)系統(tǒng)探討了風(fēng)險管理理論、技術(shù)與方法,將風(fēng)險管理理論引入到煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害事故預(yù)控中,建立了瓦斯爆炸事故演化的因果鏈和風(fēng)險分析模型,構(gòu)建了瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險識別與預(yù)警的體系框架,并對風(fēng)險識別與預(yù)警體系構(gòu)建的內(nèi)容和程序進行了系統(tǒng)論述。 (4)針對煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險源的多樣性與復(fù)雜性以及監(jiān)測信源與信息的多樣性和復(fù)雜性,對風(fēng)險信息源進行了系統(tǒng)研究和分類；建立了信息采集、多源信息耦合、風(fēng)險評估與預(yù)警、預(yù)控對策與響應(yīng)等的風(fēng)險識別與預(yù)警信息平臺架構(gòu)。 (5)針對煤礦安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)具有的非線性動力學(xué)特性,對礦井瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險因素進行了系統(tǒng)辨識并劃分了邏輯單元,建立了完善的層次結(jié)構(gòu)風(fēng)險指標(biāo)體系和風(fēng)險分級體系；提出了區(qū)間線性化方法對指標(biāo)信息無量綱化方法的改進；闡述了風(fēng)險識別與預(yù)警關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)“一票否決制”的獨立指標(biāo)變權(quán)評估與預(yù)警機制。 (6)將模式識別理論、技術(shù)與方法引入到煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理中,系統(tǒng)研究了瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險模式識別的基本原理、內(nèi)容、技術(shù)與方法,構(gòu)建了瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險模式識別系統(tǒng)；提出了單項指標(biāo)分段功效函數(shù)對EMC進行改進,建立了基于IAHP-ECM的瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險模式識別模型,同時還應(yīng)用DTW模板匹配技術(shù)、小樣本學(xué)習(xí)SVM理論和PSO算法等構(gòu)建基于DTW和基于PSO-SVM的瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險模式識別模型,并對上述模型進行了性能檢驗與應(yīng)用。 (7)系統(tǒng)研究了瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險預(yù)測的基本原理和過程、預(yù)測的內(nèi)容和預(yù)測技術(shù)與方法,建立了煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害單項風(fēng)險預(yù)測和綜合風(fēng)險預(yù)測的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)學(xué)模型；構(gòu)建了瓦斯涌出量預(yù)測的GM(1,1)模型、殘差GM(1,1)模型、等維信息GM(1,1)模型、AP(p)模型、以及與SVM結(jié)合的組合預(yù)測模型等,并對上述模型分別進行了性能檢驗與應(yīng)用。 (8)系統(tǒng)研究了瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險預(yù)警的程序與內(nèi)容和風(fēng)險預(yù)警等級與預(yù)警閥值設(shè)置,提出了風(fēng)險因素觀測值和風(fēng)險水平的時間梯度是風(fēng)險預(yù)警的重要組成部分；研究了瓦斯?jié)舛瘸迗缶瘷C制與技術(shù)和瓦斯?jié)舛忍荻葓缶瘷C制與技術(shù),建立了基于Elman的瓦斯?jié)舛阮A(yù)警模型和基于PNN的瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險綜合預(yù)警模型,并分別進行了模型性能檢驗與應(yīng)用。 論文針對煤礦瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險預(yù)控中存在的薄弱環(huán)節(jié),在國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(51274100)等資助下,運用多學(xué)科交叉理論進行了瓦斯爆炸災(zāi)害風(fēng)險識別與預(yù)警體系的構(gòu)建與應(yīng)用研究,有較高的學(xué)術(shù)研究價值和推廣應(yīng)用前景。
[Abstract]:Abstract : Coal mining is one of the most dangerous industries in China , especially in gas explosion disaster with its destructive strength , large economic loss and many casualties . The paper studies the risk identification and early warning system of gas explosion disaster by combining theory research , numerical analysis , field observation and computer application . It is of great significance to realize the early identification of the risk of coal mine safety production system and the prevention of accident , improve the safety level of coal mine , promote the safety of coal mine safety and the sustainable development of coal industry .

( 1 ) Aiming at the problems of the existing coal mine gas explosion disaster pre - control management theory and method system , this paper puts forward a disaster prevention pre - control system based on the integrated visual angle of risk identification , monitoring , grading , evaluation , forecasting , early warning and countermeasure .

( 2 ) Statistical analysis of a large number of accident cases of gas disasters is carried out , and the fractal characteristics of accident characteristics and statistical laws in time are obtained ;
According to the core problems such as gas emission and accumulation and the generation of fire source in gas explosion disaster , the typical characteristics of gas emission and accumulation , ignition source and detonation location are classified and studied . The typical characteristics and coupling rules of gas explosion disaster are obtained through the case analysis of gas explosion accidents , and some suggestions and measures are put forward to reduce the occurrence of gas explosion accidents .

( 3 ) The risk management theory , technology and method are discussed in this paper . The risk management theory is introduced into the pre - control of coal mine gas explosion disaster , the causal chain and risk analysis model of gas explosion accident evolution is established , the system framework of risk identification and early warning of gas explosion disaster is constructed , and the content and procedure of risk identification and early warning system are discussed .

( 4 ) To study and classify the risk information source based on the diversity and complexity of the mine gas explosion disaster risk source and the diversity and complexity of monitoring the source and information ;
Information acquisition , multi - source information coupling , risk assessment and early warning , pre - control strategy and response are established .

( 5 ) Aiming at the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of coal mine safety production system , the risk factors of mine gas explosion disaster are systematically identified and divided into logical units , and a perfect hierarchy risk index system and risk classification system are established ;
This paper presents the improvement of the method of interval linearization to the dimensionless method of index information .
This paper expounds the independent index change right assessment and early warning mechanism of risk identification and early warning key index " one - vote veto system " .

( 6 ) The theory , technology and method of pattern recognition are introduced into the risk management of coal mine gas explosion disaster , and the basic principle , content , technology and method of gas explosion disaster risk pattern recognition are studied .
This paper proposes an improved model of risk pattern recognition based on IAHP - ECM based on IAHP - ECM , and also applies DTW template matching technology , small sample learning SVM theory and PSO algorithm to build a model of risk pattern recognition based on DTW and PSO - SVM .

( 7 ) The basic principle and process of gas explosion disaster risk prediction are studied systematically , the content and prediction technology and method are predicted , and the basic mathematical model of single risk prediction and comprehensive risk prediction of coal mine gas explosion disaster is established .
The GM ( 1,1 ) model , the residual GM ( 1,1 ) model , the equal dimension information GM ( 1,1 ) model , the AP ( p ) model , and the combined prediction model combined with the SVM are constructed , and the performance test and application of the model are carried out respectively .

( 8 ) The system studies the procedure and content of the risk early warning of gas explosion disaster and the warning level of risk early warning and the setting of warning threshold value , and puts forward that the time gradient of risk factor observation value and risk level is an important part of risk early warning ;
Based on Elman - based gas concentration warning model and PNN - based comprehensive early - warning model of gas explosion disaster risk , the gas concentration - limit alarm mechanism and technology and gas concentration gradient alarm mechanism are studied , and the model performance test and application are carried out respectively .

In view of the weak links existing in the risk pre - control of coal mine gas explosion disaster , the construction and application of the risk identification and early warning system of gas explosion disaster are carried out under the financing of the national natural science fund ( 51274100 ) and so on , which has higher academic research value and popularization and application prospect .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TD712.7

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