本文選題：煤層底板突水　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法　出處：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)華北型煤田水害問(wèn)題普遍嚴(yán)重，特別是主采煤層底板奧陶系灰?guī)r含水層突水多次造成重大的人員傷亡和財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。煤層底板突水的預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)是礦井水害防治和實(shí)現(xiàn)安全開(kāi)采的基本前提與重要基礎(chǔ)，盡管目前的相關(guān)研究成果較多，但在預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性、可靠性、實(shí)用性等方面仍然存在一定的問(wèn)題，，以致在實(shí)際應(yīng)用中仍以突水系數(shù)法為主。因此，本文以曾發(fā)生由于揭露小斷層導(dǎo)致的二1煤底板奧灰特大突水事故的新安礦為例，開(kāi)展煤層底板突水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)科學(xué)的評(píng)價(jià)方法的研究，有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在分析礦井底板突水的形成條件及影響因素的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了底板突水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法之風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擬合法并研究了突變理論法。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擬合法即以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論為基礎(chǔ)建立煤層底板突水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行底板突水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的方法。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擬合法從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論出發(fā)，推導(dǎo)出底板突水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)數(shù)學(xué)表達(dá)式，利用多元線性回歸方法，根據(jù)礦區(qū)已知突水點(diǎn)信息擬合表達(dá)式系數(shù)，建立評(píng)價(jià)模型。利用ArcGIS多源信息融合功能對(duì)相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素量化值專題圖依據(jù)評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行復(fù)合疊加，根據(jù)疊加結(jié)果進(jìn)行底板突水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)。突變理論法即以突變理論為基礎(chǔ)建立煤層底板突水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行底板突水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的方法。突變理論法通過(guò)研究底板突水的突變機(jī)理確定狀態(tài)變量和主次控制變量，依據(jù)尖點(diǎn)突變模型提出平衡曲面方程，通過(guò)坐標(biāo)變換得到新坐標(biāo)系下（狀態(tài)變量、主次控制變量坐標(biāo)系）平衡曲面方程的表達(dá)方式。利用新坐標(biāo)軸性質(zhì)構(gòu)建方程組求解平衡曲面方程的系數(shù)和新坐標(biāo)系原點(diǎn)的位置，利用已知突水點(diǎn)信息驗(yàn)證求解結(jié)果的合理性。依據(jù)新坐標(biāo)系下平衡曲面方程根的判別式，建立突水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型，進(jìn)行底板突水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)。 本文應(yīng)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擬合法、突變理論法以及脆弱性指數(shù)法和突水系數(shù)法四種方法分別評(píng)價(jià)新安礦二1煤底板突水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并進(jìn)行對(duì)比，除突水系數(shù)法以外，其它三種方法的評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果均與實(shí)際突水點(diǎn)位置擬合較好。本文的研究成果有助于認(rèn)識(shí)煤層底板突水異常復(fù)雜的機(jī)理，同時(shí)對(duì)于深部高承壓水上安全開(kāi)采以及礦井底板突水的中長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)具有一定的理論意義和實(shí)踐價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:The problem of water disaster in North China coal field is very serious, especially the water inrush of Ordovician limestone aquifer in the floor of main coal seam has caused heavy casualties and property losses for many times.The prediction and risk assessment of water inrush from coal seam floor is the basic premise and important foundation of preventing and controlling mine water hazard and realizing safe mining. Although there are many related research results at present, the accuracy and reliability of the prediction results are obtained.There are still some problems in practicability, so the water inrush coefficient method is still the main method in practical application.Therefore, this paper takes Xinan Coal Mine, which happened in Xinan Coal Mine, which was caused by exposing small faults, as an example, to carry out a scientific evaluation method of water inrush from coal seam floor, which has important theoretical and practical significance.On the basis of analyzing the forming conditions and influencing factors of water inrush from mine floor, this paper puts forward the risk fitting method for evaluating the risk of water inrush from bottom plate and studies the catastrophe theory method.The risk fitting method is based on the risk theory to establish a risk assessment model for water inrush from coal seam floor to evaluate the risk of water inrush on the floor.Based on the risk theory, the mathematical expression of water inrush risk of floor plate is deduced. The evaluation model is established by using multiple linear regression method and fitting coefficient according to the information of water inrush point in mining area.The multi-source information fusion function of ArcGIS is used to compound superposition the quantitative value of related risk factors according to the evaluation model and to evaluate the risk of water inrush on the floor according to the superposition results.The catastrophe theory method is based on the catastrophe theory to establish a risk assessment model for water inrush from coal seam floor.The catastrophe theory method determines the state variable and the primary and secondary control variable by studying the abrupt mechanism of water inrush from the bottom plate. According to the cusp catastrophe model, the equilibrium surface equation is put forward, and the new coordinate system (state variable) is obtained by coordinate transformation.The expression of equilibrium surface equation in the coordinate system of primary and secondary control variables.The coefficients of the equations and the position of the origin of the new coordinate system are constructed by using the properties of the new coordinate axis, and the rationality of the solution results is verified by using the information of the known water inrush points.According to the discriminant of the equation root of equilibrium surface in the new coordinate system, the risk evaluation model of water inrush is established, and the risk evaluation of water inrush on the bottom plate is carried out.In this paper, risk fitting method, catastrophe theory method, vulnerability index method and water inrush coefficient method are used to evaluate and compare the risk of water inrush from coal floor of No. 2 1 coal mine in Xinan Mine, except for the method of water inrush coefficient.The evaluation results of the other three methods all fit well with the location of the actual water inrush point.The research results of this paper are helpful to understand the complicated mechanism of water inrush from coal seam floor, and also have certain theoretical significance and practical value for safe mining of deep high pressure water and medium and long term prediction of mine floor water inrush.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TD745

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