本文選題：大連轄區(qū)　切入點(diǎn)：水上交通事故　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文是在大連轄區(qū)2001-2012年水上交通事故的歷史數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上,分別運(yùn)用了海事統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法和自適應(yīng)過濾預(yù)測模型對其進(jìn)行合理的分析研究。文章對水上交通事故進(jìn)行科學(xué)的定義,充分的研究了該領(lǐng)域的研究現(xiàn)狀,并根據(jù)水上交通事故的特征選用海事統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法和自適應(yīng)過濾預(yù)測模型。在根據(jù)《水上交通事故統(tǒng)計(jì)辦法》對水上交通事故進(jìn)行事故類別和等級的劃分后,文章總結(jié)出水上交通事故的特點(diǎn)并從“船舶、環(huán)境、人員、管理”這些因素分析引起水上交通事故的基本要素。由于水上交通事故具有危害嚴(yán)重、損失巨大、規(guī)律性、隨機(jī)性和偶然性以及小概率性這些特點(diǎn),因此對水上交通事故進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的特征分析研究,找出了大連轄區(qū)水上交通事故的特有規(guī)律：主要事故等級為小事故,占70%；事故集中發(fā)生在每年的第二季度,尤其是5、6月份；而在各類事故中碰撞事故就最高,占了50%,且主要事故發(fā)生在普通貨船上；同時(shí),能見度良好時(shí)發(fā)生的事故遠(yuǎn)高于能見度不良,達(dá)74%；在地域上,事故集中發(fā)生在港區(qū)內(nèi)水域和大小三山水道、老鐵山水道等特殊水域。接著,文章對大連轄區(qū)水域交通事故進(jìn)行科學(xué)合理地預(yù)測,用已收集的2001-2012年大連轄區(qū)水上交通事故相關(guān)歷史數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用自適應(yīng)過濾預(yù)測模型原理,通過C++語言編程實(shí)現(xiàn)自適應(yīng)過濾預(yù)測模型的自動(dòng)化,先分別對2011年和2012年大連轄區(qū)各類水上交通事故進(jìn)行預(yù)測,誤差分析,得出不論是各類事故每年的相對誤差還是這兩年總的相對誤差都小于0.5,并且一般事故和重大事故2011年的預(yù)測誤差以及大事故2011-2012年的預(yù)測誤差都達(dá)到了0。因此,該模型的預(yù)測精度基本滿足對大連轄區(qū)水上交通事故的有效預(yù)測。最后對2013年大連轄區(qū)水上交通事故進(jìn)行科學(xué)預(yù)測,并提出一些相應(yīng)的建議。
[Abstract]:Based on the historical data of water traffic accidents in Dalian area from 2001 to 2012, this paper makes a reasonable analysis and research on the maritime traffic accidents by using the statistical analysis method and the adaptive filter forecasting model, and defines the maritime traffic accidents scientifically in this paper. The current situation of the research in this field is fully studied. According to the characteristics of water traffic accidents, the maritime statistical analysis method and adaptive filter prediction model are selected. This paper summarizes the characteristics of water traffic accidents and analyzes the basic factors that cause water traffic accidents from the factors of "ship, environment, personnel and management". Because of the randomness, randomness and small probability, the characteristics of water traffic accidents are analyzed and studied, and the special law of water traffic accidents in Dalian area is found out: the main accident grade is small accident, The accidents were concentrated in the second quarter of each year, especially in May and June. Among all kinds of accidents, collision accidents were the highest, accounting for 50 percent, and the major accidents occurred on ordinary cargo ships. At the same time, Accidents that occur when visibility is good are much higher than those with poor visibility, reaching 74x; geographically, accidents occur mainly in the waters of the port area and in special waters such as the Sanshanshui Road and the Laotie Mountain Waterway. Then, This paper makes a scientific and reasonable prediction of the traffic accidents in the waters of Dalian jurisdiction. Using the historical data collected from 2001 to 2012, the principle of adaptive filter prediction model is used. Through C language programming to realize the automation of adaptive filter prediction model, first of all, forecast all kinds of water traffic accidents in Dalian area in 2011 and 2012, error analysis, It is concluded that the relative error of each type of accident is less than 0.5 per year or the total relative error of these two years is less than 0.5, and the prediction error of general accident and major accident in 2011 and 2011-2012 of major accident are all 0. The prediction accuracy of the model is basically satisfied with the effective prediction of the water traffic accident in Dalian area. Finally, the scientific prediction of the water traffic accident in the Dalian area in 2013 is carried out, and some corresponding suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U698.6

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