本文關鍵詞： 橋隧群路段 安全 因素分析 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡 對策庫　出處：《長安大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國的公路建設特別是高速公路開始逐步由東部向西部延伸,促使公路橋梁和隧道以及橋隧道群的大量出現(xiàn),而橋隧道群由于其特殊的行車環(huán)境,成為交通事故頻發(fā)的路段,國內對于橋隧群路段交通事故的機理尚不完全清楚。因此,研究橋隧群路段運行安全評價與改善措施,對于提高公路隧道及隧道群的安全水平,促進公路交通可持續(xù)發(fā)展,具有理論和現(xiàn)實意義。本文在分析國內外相關文獻的基礎上,指出了目前相關研究中存在的問題和不足,確定了主要研究內容和技術路線;根據(jù)六安高速公路橋隧群路段事故歷史數(shù)據(jù),主要從交通事故發(fā)生的時間分布、空間分布、氣候分布、事故形態(tài)分布以及事故車輛類型分布幾個方面對橋隧群路段的交通事故特性進行了分析;以此為基礎,從駕駛員特征、交通條件、道路狀態(tài)和外界環(huán)境的角度,分析了影響橋隧群路段交通事故的主要因素;運用層次分析法建立了包含6個一級指標和19個二級指標的橋隧群路段運行安全指標體系;運用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡方法,建立貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡安全評估模型以及貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡拓撲結構,并借助Ge Ne I軟件展開計算,采用專家打分法對貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡進行推斷更新,從而得到橋隧群路段的安全等級;以五條橋隧群路段為例,進行了實例驗證,并提出了相應的改進措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the highway construction in China, especially the highway, began to extend gradually from the east to the west, which promoted the emergence of highway bridges, tunnels and bridge tunnel groups, and the bridge tunnel group was due to its special driving environment. The mechanism of traffic accidents in bridge and tunnel groups is not completely clear in China. Therefore, the study on safety evaluation and improvement measures of bridge and tunnel groups can improve the safety level of highway tunnels and tunnel groups. It is of theoretical and practical significance to promote the sustainable development of highway traffic. Based on the analysis of the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper points out the existing problems and shortcomings in the related research at present, and determines the main research contents and technical routes. According to the historical data of the accidents in the bridge and tunnel sections of the Lu'an Expressway, mainly from the time distribution, the spatial distribution, the climate distribution of the traffic accidents, The traffic accident characteristics of bridge and tunnel sections are analyzed from the aspects of accident form distribution and accident vehicle type distribution, which are based on the characteristics of drivers, traffic conditions, road conditions and external environment. The main factors affecting traffic accidents in bridge and tunnel groups are analyzed, and the operation safety index system of bridge and tunnel groups including 6 first-grade indexes and 19 second-class indexes is established by using analytic hierarchy process, and the Bayesian network method is used. The Bayesian network security evaluation model and the Bayesian network topology structure are established. With the aid of GE ne software, the Bayesian network is inferred and updated by using the expert scoring method, and the safety grade of the bridge and tunnel group is obtained. Taking five sections of bridge and tunnel as an example, the examples are verified and the corresponding improvement measures are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U492.8

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 閆慧麗;金蘭;黃丹青;丁齊;黃小勇;;基于人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡的高速公路隧道群限速研究[J];城市道橋與防洪;2015年01期

2 陳鵬;潘曉東;付志斌;邱漢騏;;城市隧道出入口視覺適應性研究[J];交通標準化;2014年19期

3 韓星;楊潔;張，

本文編號：1516870