本文關(guān)鍵詞： 橋隧群路段 安全 因素分析 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò) 對策庫　出處：《長安大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國的公路建設(shè)特別是高速公路開始逐步由東部向西部延伸,促使公路橋梁和隧道以及橋隧道群的大量出現(xiàn),而橋隧道群由于其特殊的行車環(huán)境,成為交通事故頻發(fā)的路段,國內(nèi)對于橋隧群路段交通事故的機(jī)理尚不完全清楚。因此,研究橋隧群路段運(yùn)行安全評價與改善措施,對于提高公路隧道及隧道群的安全水平,促進(jìn)公路交通可持續(xù)發(fā)展,具有理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文在分析國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,指出了目前相關(guān)研究中存在的問題和不足,確定了主要研究內(nèi)容和技術(shù)路線;根據(jù)六安高速公路橋隧群路段事故歷史數(shù)據(jù),主要從交通事故發(fā)生的時間分布、空間分布、氣候分布、事故形態(tài)分布以及事故車輛類型分布幾個方面對橋隧群路段的交通事故特性進(jìn)行了分析;以此為基礎(chǔ),從駕駛員特征、交通條件、道路狀態(tài)和外界環(huán)境的角度,分析了影響橋隧群路段交通事故的主要因素;運(yùn)用層次分析法建立了包含6個一級指標(biāo)和19個二級指標(biāo)的橋隧群路段運(yùn)行安全指標(biāo)體系;運(yùn)用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法,建立貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全評估模型以及貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu),并借助Ge Ne I軟件展開計(jì)算,采用專家打分法對貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行推斷更新,從而得到橋隧群路段的安全等級;以五條橋隧群路段為例,進(jìn)行了實(shí)例驗(yàn)證,并提出了相應(yīng)的改進(jìn)措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the highway construction in China, especially the highway, began to extend gradually from the east to the west, which promoted the emergence of highway bridges, tunnels and bridge tunnel groups, and the bridge tunnel group was due to its special driving environment. The mechanism of traffic accidents in bridge and tunnel groups is not completely clear in China. Therefore, the study on safety evaluation and improvement measures of bridge and tunnel groups can improve the safety level of highway tunnels and tunnel groups. It is of theoretical and practical significance to promote the sustainable development of highway traffic. Based on the analysis of the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper points out the existing problems and shortcomings in the related research at present, and determines the main research contents and technical routes. According to the historical data of the accidents in the bridge and tunnel sections of the Lu'an Expressway, mainly from the time distribution, the spatial distribution, the climate distribution of the traffic accidents, The traffic accident characteristics of bridge and tunnel sections are analyzed from the aspects of accident form distribution and accident vehicle type distribution, which are based on the characteristics of drivers, traffic conditions, road conditions and external environment. The main factors affecting traffic accidents in bridge and tunnel groups are analyzed, and the operation safety index system of bridge and tunnel groups including 6 first-grade indexes and 19 second-class indexes is established by using analytic hierarchy process, and the Bayesian network method is used. The Bayesian network security evaluation model and the Bayesian network topology structure are established. With the aid of GE ne software, the Bayesian network is inferred and updated by using the expert scoring method, and the safety grade of the bridge and tunnel group is obtained. Taking five sections of bridge and tunnel as an example, the examples are verified and the corresponding improvement measures are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U492.8

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本文編號：1516870