本文關(guān)鍵詞： 終端區(qū) 航跡預(yù)測(cè) 沖突探測(cè) 安全間隔 虛警率　出處：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)，隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，我國(guó)民航事業(yè)得到了快速的發(fā)展，有限的空域資源與交通流量不斷增加之間的矛盾日益突出，在交通較為密集的終端區(qū)尤為顯著，使得航空器間飛行沖突的可能性大大增加，加重了管制員的工作負(fù)荷。為保證航空器間的飛行間隔確保其飛行安全，亟需有效的沖突探測(cè)工具，輔助管制員對(duì)航空器的間隔進(jìn)行調(diào)配�；诖�，本文對(duì)沖突探測(cè)技術(shù)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)、深入的研究。 有效的沖突探測(cè)基于準(zhǔn)確的航跡預(yù)測(cè)，準(zhǔn)確航跡預(yù)測(cè)是沖突探測(cè)的根本。航跡預(yù)測(cè)方面，首先分析了當(dāng)前航跡預(yù)測(cè)的系統(tǒng)模型，建立基于BADA飛行性能模型的航跡預(yù)測(cè)方法，并利用北京首都機(jī)場(chǎng)36L跑道的進(jìn)場(chǎng)航線進(jìn)行仿真，將預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與實(shí)際雷達(dá)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析；提出一種新的航跡預(yù)測(cè)方法：將航空器航跡預(yù)測(cè)問(wèn)題就變?yōu)榛祀s系統(tǒng)的狀態(tài)估計(jì)問(wèn)題，并根據(jù)航空器的運(yùn)行特點(diǎn)和飛行計(jì)劃信息，建立了狀態(tài)相關(guān)模式轉(zhuǎn)移多模型估計(jì)算法。 沖突探測(cè)方面，首先詳細(xì)介紹了終端區(qū)航空器安全間隔標(biāo)準(zhǔn)規(guī)定、航空器飛行保護(hù)區(qū)模型，然后對(duì)于確定型和概率型的沖突探測(cè)算法進(jìn)行分析，對(duì)CTAS系統(tǒng)的Paielli算法的缺陷進(jìn)行修正，提出了一種適用性更加廣泛的短期沖突探測(cè)算法。基于前面的航跡預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果應(yīng)用此算法進(jìn)行仿真分析，與目前終端區(qū)使用的短期沖突告警工具STCA對(duì)比，能夠有效降低虛警率，，體現(xiàn)此算法的優(yōu)越性。 最后，在上述的航跡預(yù)測(cè)和沖突探測(cè)算法的基礎(chǔ)上，本文開(kāi)發(fā)了沖突探測(cè)系統(tǒng)。該系統(tǒng)滿足虛報(bào)率低、實(shí)時(shí)性高的要求，同時(shí)界面友好、操作簡(jiǎn)單，為終端區(qū)的短期沖突告警提供了一種切實(shí)可行的方法。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the sustained growth of the national economy, the civil aviation industry in China has been developing rapidly. The contradiction between the limited airspace resources and the increasing traffic flow has become increasingly prominent, especially in the transport dense terminal area. Making inter-aircraft flight conflicts much more likely and increasing the workload of controllers. In order to ensure the safety of flights between aircraft, effective conflict detection tools are urgently needed, Based on this, the conflict detection technology is studied systematically and deeply in this paper. Effective conflict detection is based on accurate track prediction, which is the basis of conflict detection. In the aspect of track prediction, firstly, the current system model of track prediction is analyzed, and the method of track prediction based on BADA flight performance model is established. The approach route of 36L runway of Beijing Capital Airport is simulated and compared with the actual radar data. A new route prediction method is proposed: the problem of aircraft track prediction is transformed into a hybrid system state estimation problem. According to the flight plan information and the characteristics of the aircraft, a multi-model estimation algorithm for state dependent mode transfer is established. In the aspect of conflict detection, first of all, the standard of aircraft safety interval in terminal area and the model of aircraft flight protection area are introduced in detail, and then the conflict detection algorithms of certain and probabilistic types are analyzed. In this paper, the defects of Paielli algorithm in CTAS system are corrected, and a more widely applicable short-term conflict detection algorithm is proposed. Compared with the short-term conflict alarm tool STCA which is used in the terminal area, it can effectively reduce the false alarm rate and reflect the superiority of this algorithm. Finally, on the basis of the above algorithms of track prediction and collision detection, a conflict detection system is developed, which meets the requirements of low false report rate, high real-time performance, friendly interface and simple operation. It provides a practical method for short-term conflict alarm in terminal area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：V355;V328

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