河南省出口與經(jīng)濟增長關系的研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-06-15 20:02
【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟一體化和全球化的發(fā)展，對外貿(mào)易日益受到人們的關注，，對外貿(mào)易是否能促進經(jīng)濟的增長越來越成為經(jīng)濟學家研究的焦點。很多學者用各種計量模型和方法對不同國家和地區(qū)的對外貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟增長的關系做了大量的論證研究，得出的結(jié)論也各異。但是很多經(jīng)濟比較落后的地區(qū)借助對外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展，實現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟的大發(fā)展，這對于中國這樣一個大的發(fā)展中國家來說，具有很大的借鑒意義。我國雖然起步比較晚，但是對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的探索卻從未間斷，特別是2008年金融危機以來，我國更加注重經(jīng)濟的平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展，提出要轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式，使得出口、消費、投資協(xié)調(diào)帶動經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。而河南省作為中國的一個大省，在國家提出“促進中部崛起”的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略之后，在我省努力走在中部六省之首的過程中，研究對外貿(mào)易特別是出口對經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展具有很強的實踐意義。 改革開放30多年以來，河南省經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展取得了令人矚目的成就，特別是國家提出中部崛起這一戰(zhàn)略之后，河南省對中原經(jīng)濟區(qū)的發(fā)展也作出了很大的貢獻。但是作為一個人口大省，這是遠遠不夠的，我省的人均生產(chǎn)總值與全國平均水平比還是比較低，所以我省必須加快經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展，趕上并努力超過全國平均水平。本文就從出口的角度，闡述和分析了目前的國內(nèi)外背景和本文的研究意義，回顧了對外貿(mào)易中的貿(mào)易促進論、貿(mào)易阻礙論以及貿(mào)易折衷論和經(jīng)濟增長的相關理論，回顧和分析了國內(nèi)外的相關研究的文獻，進而對河南省出口對經(jīng)濟增長的關系進行了定性分析，并運用河南省20多年的數(shù)據(jù)進行了實證分析，最后得出：出口促進了經(jīng)濟的增長。根據(jù)上面得出的結(jié)論，筆者結(jié)合我省以往的對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展提出了出口存在的一些主要問題，并針對這些問題提出改進和發(fā)展對外貿(mào)易的政策和建議，以促進我省經(jīng)濟的進一步發(fā)展。 本文采用理論分析和實證分析相結(jié)合，縱向比較和橫向比較相結(jié)合的方法，對出口對經(jīng)濟增長的關系進行了研究。那么本文運用多元線性回歸函數(shù)通過平穩(wěn)性檢驗和格蘭杰因果關系檢驗進行實證檢驗，最后證明了河南省出口和河南省的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展確實存在很強的線性相關關系，既然出口可以促進經(jīng)濟的增長，那么在國際經(jīng)濟不景氣的大背景下，我省應該抓住機遇，大力發(fā)展我省的出口。如何發(fā)展我省的出口，本文首先結(jié)合河南省的實際情況提出了出口存在的一些制約其發(fā)展的主要問題，并有針對性地提出了發(fā)展對外貿(mào)易的一些政策建議，希望能給河南省的政策制定提供一定的參考，筆者就會感到十分欣慰了。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic integration and globalization, people pay more and more attention to foreign trade. Whether foreign trade can promote economic growth has become the focus of economists' research. Many scholars have done a lot of argumentation and research on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in different countries and regions with various econometric models and methods, and the conclusions are also different. However, many economically backward areas have achieved great economic development with the help of the development of foreign trade, which has great reference significance for such a large developing country as China. Although China started relatively late, the exploration of economic development has never been interrupted, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, China has paid more attention to the stable and healthy development of the economy, and proposed to change the mode of economic development so that exports, consumption and investment can promote the development of the economy. Henan Province, as a big province in China, after the state put forward the development strategy of "promoting the rise of central China", in the process of our province trying to walk at the top of the six central provinces, the study of foreign trade, especially export, has a strong practical significance for economic development. Since the reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, the economic development of Henan Province has made remarkable achievements, especially after the country put forward the strategy of the rise of central China, Henan Province has also made great contributions to the development of the Central Plains Economic Zone. However, as a populous province, this is far from enough. The ratio of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) to the national average level is still relatively low, so our province must speed up economic development and catch up with and strive to exceed the national average level. From the point of view of export, this paper expounds and analyzes the background at home and abroad and the significance of this study, reviews the theory of trade promotion, the theory of trade hindrance, the theory of trade compromise and economic growth in foreign trade, reviews and analyzes the relevant research literature at home and abroad, and then makes a qualitative analysis of the relationship between export and economic growth in Henan Province. Based on the data of Henan Province for more than 20 years, this paper makes an empirical analysis, and finally concludes that exports promote economic growth. According to the above conclusions, the author puts forward some main problems existing in export in the light of the previous foreign trade development of our province, and puts forward some policies and suggestions for improving and developing foreign trade in view of these problems, so as to promote the further development of our province's economy. In this paper, the relationship between export and economic growth is studied by combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, vertical comparison and horizontal comparison. Then this paper uses multiple linear regression function to carry on the empirical test through the stationarity test and the Granger causality test, and finally proves that there is a strong linear correlation between the export of Henan Province and the economic development of Henan Province. Since the export can promote the economic growth, then under the background of the international economic downturn, our province should seize the opportunity and vigorously develop the export of our province. How to develop the export of our province, this paper first puts forward some main problems that restrict the development of export according to the actual situation of Henan Province, and puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of foreign trade, hoping to provide a certain reference for the policy formulation of Henan Province, the author will be very pleased.
【學位授予單位】：河南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F752.8
本文編號：2500472
[Abstract]:With the development of economic integration and globalization, people pay more and more attention to foreign trade. Whether foreign trade can promote economic growth has become the focus of economists' research. Many scholars have done a lot of argumentation and research on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in different countries and regions with various econometric models and methods, and the conclusions are also different. However, many economically backward areas have achieved great economic development with the help of the development of foreign trade, which has great reference significance for such a large developing country as China. Although China started relatively late, the exploration of economic development has never been interrupted, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, China has paid more attention to the stable and healthy development of the economy, and proposed to change the mode of economic development so that exports, consumption and investment can promote the development of the economy. Henan Province, as a big province in China, after the state put forward the development strategy of "promoting the rise of central China", in the process of our province trying to walk at the top of the six central provinces, the study of foreign trade, especially export, has a strong practical significance for economic development. Since the reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, the economic development of Henan Province has made remarkable achievements, especially after the country put forward the strategy of the rise of central China, Henan Province has also made great contributions to the development of the Central Plains Economic Zone. However, as a populous province, this is far from enough. The ratio of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) to the national average level is still relatively low, so our province must speed up economic development and catch up with and strive to exceed the national average level. From the point of view of export, this paper expounds and analyzes the background at home and abroad and the significance of this study, reviews the theory of trade promotion, the theory of trade hindrance, the theory of trade compromise and economic growth in foreign trade, reviews and analyzes the relevant research literature at home and abroad, and then makes a qualitative analysis of the relationship between export and economic growth in Henan Province. Based on the data of Henan Province for more than 20 years, this paper makes an empirical analysis, and finally concludes that exports promote economic growth. According to the above conclusions, the author puts forward some main problems existing in export in the light of the previous foreign trade development of our province, and puts forward some policies and suggestions for improving and developing foreign trade in view of these problems, so as to promote the further development of our province's economy. In this paper, the relationship between export and economic growth is studied by combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, vertical comparison and horizontal comparison. Then this paper uses multiple linear regression function to carry on the empirical test through the stationarity test and the Granger causality test, and finally proves that there is a strong linear correlation between the export of Henan Province and the economic development of Henan Province. Since the export can promote the economic growth, then under the background of the international economic downturn, our province should seize the opportunity and vigorously develop the export of our province. How to develop the export of our province, this paper first puts forward some main problems that restrict the development of export according to the actual situation of Henan Province, and puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of foreign trade, hoping to provide a certain reference for the policy formulation of Henan Province, the author will be very pleased.
【學位授予單位】：河南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F752.8
【參考文獻】
相關碩士學位論文 前2條
1 楊曦;出口退稅政策調(diào)整對廣西出口貿(mào)易的影響分析[D];廣西師范大學;2011年
2 張麗靜;我國對外貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟增長關系的實證研究[D];江蘇大學;2010年
本文編號：2500472
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