【摘要】：近些年來(lái),勞動(dòng)力參與率成為學(xué)者們爭(zhēng)相研究的問(wèn)題,無(wú)論是從就業(yè)形勢(shì)還是人口紅利機(jī)遇期的角度,勞動(dòng)力參與率都是不得不提的指標(biāo)。就業(yè)人口數(shù)量的增加會(huì)直接提高勞動(dòng)力參與率,反之勞動(dòng)力參與率的提高也會(huì)在一定程度上反映就業(yè)形勢(shì)的良好；此外,只有當(dāng)勞動(dòng)力參與率保持在較高水平,同時(shí)失業(yè)率維持在較低水平,才能充分地發(fā)揮人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)帶來(lái)的優(yōu)勢(shì),顯示出人口紅利對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用,進(jìn)而加快中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。 本文立足四川省的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,從勞動(dòng)力參與率入手,考慮我省勞動(dòng)力參與率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系,進(jìn)而以勞動(dòng)力參與率的分析研究為出發(fā)點(diǎn)來(lái)促進(jìn)我省經(jīng)濟(jì)快速穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。 基于以上思考,本文將分六個(gè)部分。第一部分是緒論,主要介紹本文的研究目的、意義和技術(shù)手段,以及可能的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。第二部分是文獻(xiàn)綜述。第三部分是對(duì)我省勞動(dòng)力參與率進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,具體從計(jì)算公式的角度出發(fā),整體分析我省勞動(dòng)力參與率變動(dòng)情況,另一方面,通過(guò)對(duì)我省第六次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)地分析,考察我省勞動(dòng)力參與率在不同性別、年齡、城鄉(xiāng)、受教育程度組別間的差異。第四部分是建立勞動(dòng)力參與率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的VAR模型,在此基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)來(lái)分析二者作為一個(gè)系統(tǒng),對(duì)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差新息擾動(dòng)的響應(yīng)以此來(lái)探究我省勞動(dòng)力參與率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。第五部分通過(guò)對(duì)我省各市州的面板數(shù)據(jù)建立回歸模型,得到影響我省勞動(dòng)力參與率的主要因素。第六部分是本文的總結(jié)、啟示與展望。 本文采用兩個(gè)計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,分別從時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)和面板數(shù)據(jù)兩個(gè)角度來(lái)分析我省勞動(dòng)力參與率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。第一個(gè)模型采用1995-2010年四川省勞動(dòng)力參與率及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的數(shù)據(jù)序列建立VAR(1)模型,并在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行脈沖響應(yīng)分析。結(jié)果表明目前我省勞動(dòng)力參與率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率存在著格蘭杰因果關(guān)系,二者有正相關(guān)關(guān)系,脈沖響應(yīng)結(jié)果表示我省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率對(duì)勞動(dòng)力參與率的一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差擾動(dòng)的響應(yīng)存在著一定的滯后期,即當(dāng)期的勞動(dòng)力參與率變動(dòng)不會(huì)馬上影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的改變。第二個(gè)模型采用2005-2010年四川省各市(州)勞動(dòng)力參與率面板數(shù)據(jù),利用個(gè)體固定效應(yīng)模型進(jìn)行建模,通過(guò)逐個(gè)剔除不顯著變量的方法,最后得出我省勞動(dòng)力參與率與地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值存在著倒U型曲線(xiàn)的關(guān)系,當(dāng)期階段正處于正向關(guān)系；失業(yè)率、城鎮(zhèn)化率、職工享受福利程度、受教育程度均對(duì)我省的勞動(dòng)力參與率存在著顯著影響；性別比、固定資產(chǎn)投資總額、平均貨幣工資水平對(duì)我省勞動(dòng)力參與率影響不顯著,此外基于各市(州)面板數(shù)據(jù)建立的個(gè)體固定效應(yīng)模型中各個(gè)城市的截距項(xiàng)存在著一定的空間聚集效應(yīng),表明我省勞動(dòng)力參與率水平的大小與各市(州)的地理位置也存在著一定的相關(guān)性。最后本文通過(guò)上述分析和總結(jié)提出了關(guān)于我省發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì),提高勞動(dòng)力參與率的有關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the participation rate of the labor force has become a problem for scholars to study, whether from the employment situation or the period of the people's bonus machine, the labor force participation rate is the index that has to be mentioned. (b) The increase in the number of employed persons will directly increase the labour force participation rate, while the increase in the labour force participation rate will, to a certain extent, reflect the good employment situation; in addition, only when the labour force participation rate remains at a higher level, while the unemployment rate is maintained at a lower level, In order to fully play the advantage of the age structure of the population, it is shown that the contribution of the population bonus to the growth of the economy can accelerate the growth of the Chinese economy. Based on the economic development of Sichuan Province, this paper starts with the participation rate of the labor force, and takes into account the relation between the labor force participation rate and the economic growth of our province, and then the analysis and research of the labor force participation rate as the starting point to promote the rapid and stable development of our economy. Based on the above thought, the article will be divided into six parts. The first part is the introduction, mainly introduces the purpose, meaning and technical means of this paper, and possible Innovation point. The second part is the text The third part is to make a descriptive statistical analysis of the labor force participation rate of our province, and from the angle of the calculation formula, analyze the change of the labor force participation rate of our province. On the other hand, through the system of the sixth census data of our province The analysis of the labor force participation rate of our province in different sex, age, urban and rural areas and the degree of education The fourth part is to establish the VAR model of the labor force participation rate and the economic growth. On this basis, the impulse response function is used to analyze the two as a system, and the response of the standard deviation and the new interest disturbance inside the system is used to explore the labor force participation rate and the economic growth of our province. The fifth part is to set up a regression model for the panel data of each city state in our province to get the main influence on the labor force participation rate of our province The sixth part is the summary and inspiration of this paper. In this paper, two econometric models are used to analyze the labor force participation rate and economy of our province from two angles of time series data and panel data, respectively. The first model uses the data series of the labor force participation rate and the economic growth rate of Sichuan Province in 1995-2010 to establish the VAR (1) model, and on this basis, it takes the vein. The results show that there is a Granger causality between the labor force participation rate and the economic growth rate in our province, and there is a positive correlation between them. The result of the impulse response indicates that the response of the economic growth rate of our province to one standard deviation of the labor force participation rate is one. A fixed lag period, that is, the change of the labor force participation rate in the current period, will not immediately affect the economic increase The second model adopts the data of the labor force participation rate of the labor force of various cities in Sichuan Province from 2005 to 2010, and uses the model of individual fixed effect to model, and finally, it is concluded that the labor force participation rate of our province and the gross domestic product have the inverted U-shape. The relationship between the curve and the current period is in the positive relation; the unemployment rate, the urbanization rate, the employee's welfare and the degree of education have a significant impact on the labor force participation rate of our province; the sex ratio, the total investment of the fixed assets, the average monetary wage, and the labor force participation rate of our province There is a certain spatial aggregation effect in the intercept term of each city in the individual fixed effect model based on the data of each city (state), indicating that the level of the labor force participation rate in our province and the geographical location of each city (state) also exist. Finally, through the above analysis and summary, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the development economy of our province and the increase of the participation rate of the labor force.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;F249.27;F224

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本文編號(hào)：2480569